Chelsea have been tipped to miss out on the Champions League to Manchester United in the most heartbreaking fashion.
Ole Gunnar Solskjaer’s side have been in sensational form since the return of the Premier League and, whilst Chelsea have picked up points themselves, their loss to West Ham in midweek has left them nervously looking over their shoulder.
Leicester City’s poor form has also seen them sweating over a top-four place that seemed all but secure when the Premier League was put on hold in March.
Leading data analysts FiveThirtyEight have now tipped all three sides to finish level on points, with United and Leicester ahead of Frank Lampard’s side on goal difference alone.
The Foxes and United both have an 86 per cent chance of qualifying for the Champions League, with Chelsea given an 83 per cent chance.
Wolves have a 41 per cent chance of making the top four, with Tottenham and Arsenal given just one per cent and two per cent chances respectively.
At the other end of the table, Bournemouth and Aston Villa are both heavy favourites to be relegated, with Watford tipped to finish three points above Villa.
How it works
FiveThirtyEight predict the outcome for the season using SPI ratings, which the website says are their best estimate of a team's overall strength. Each team is given an attacking rating that represents the number of goals it is expected to score against an average team, and a defensive rating to represent the number of goals it would concede.
Those ratings produce an overall SPI rating, which represents the percentage of points it would be expected to take on average from a game. Those ratings are then compared to an opponent's rating to simulate the outcome of a match.
From that, it is possible to simulate the outcome of a whole season.
FiveThirtyEight chances of qualifying for top four
Leicester City - 86 per cent
Manchester United - 86 per cent
Chelsea - 83 per cent
Wolves - 41 per cent
Arsenal - 2 per cent
Tottenham Hotspur - 1 per cent
FiveThirtyEight chances of relegation
Norwich - 99 per cent
Bournemouth - 86 per cent
Aston Villa - 75 per cent
Watford - 29 per cent
West Ham - 10 per cent
Brighton - 1 per cent
