Good night good people and see you for week two
Well that will do us from Windsor this evening I think. Thank you for tuning in on a Friday night, that takes commitment, and we are grateful for your company.
Let’s summarise the events of tonight.
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Bill Shorten prevailed in my view in the first election debate of 2016, maximising the opportunities presented by questions broadly in sync with Labor’s campaign agenda.
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Malcolm Turnbull performed strongly: he was well prepared, the answers were sharp, but he didn’t connect with the mood of his audience in the same way his opponent did.
- The small sample of voters in Sydney’s west were concerned about health care, child care, about multinational tax avoidance, about the banks and privatisation – all issues that line up with Labor’s campaign messages.
- Both leaders kept the conversation largely on the substance rather than the personalities.
As I sign off for the week I give thanks to contributors over the past six days: Bridie Jabour, Gabi Chan, Lenore Taylor, Michael Safi, Mel Davey, Paul Karp. Mike and I salute you all. Enjoy a restful weekend, get some sunshine and some levity, and we’ll be back on Monday for week two of election 2016.
Best way not to forget your train of thought? Write it down.
A few more observations about tonight. It was a really solid policy discussion. Of course both leaders got their formulations up, that’s inevitable, but the questions pushed both leaders into unscripted territory, and both largely kept the discussion in a battle of ideas frame rather than a battle of personalities. The voters are better for that kind of discussion.
Room scores it for the Labor leader
Ok here’s the room.
A clear win for Shorten. Of the 100, 42 are more likely to vote for Bill Shorten, 29 for Malcolm Turnbull, 29 still undecided.
Hope that adds up to 100. That’s Sky’s account.
Not one question on asylum seekers. In western Sydney. See what I mean about Bill Shorten being a lucky fellow?
We should get an exit poll from Galaxy shortly if this event is running on the usual format. What I think doesn’t matter. What these voters think, does.
I think Shorten won this evening
More detailed thoughts from me shortly, but I’d score tonight to Bill Shorten. In part the Labor leader was lucky because the questions suited him and his campaign agenda – he got more opportunities to hit for the boundary – but he opened the shoulders, that’s the point.
Malcolm Turnbull was immaculately prepared, and there were no stumbles, but he knew it wasn’t his night. He knew it.
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Fantastic pictures from Mike Bowers tonight. I wish I’d been able to share them earlier.
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This has been terrific, I reckon. Once we are through this I’ll share some thoughts, and some pictures, which I’ve had no time to share!
Into closing statements now.
Malcolm Turnbull is growing the pie, with his plan. And Bill is just the same old Labor.
Bill Shorten says he hopes voters have a better idea of who he is tonight. Now we are into positive plans for putting people first.
Final question is when will someone get the budget back into surplus? This bloke is way over debt it would seem, both sides have cocked things up he says.
Bill Shorten lines up first. He says final costings will come in due course but in the interim he’ll run through his shopping list of savings.
I get your frustration.
Speers pushes him on a timeframe. Shorten says it would be reckless to do that this evening.
Malcolm Turnbull says an important element of fairness is not leaving mountains of debt. He says the government has a pathway back to surplus. He says the important thing is to drive economic growth faster than spending. Then the budget returns to balance.
Speers says the reality here is neither side can say when a surplus will happen.
Turnbull says we have a pathway, we set it out in the budget. Shorten says Labor will release the final budget repair numbers and explain how each measure will be paid for. He says he won’t reduce the deficit by giving multinationals a tax cut and shoving budget problems onto household budgets.
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Sticking with question eleven, Speers asks the prime minister whether money matters in education.
Malcolm Turnbull:
Of course it does.
Turnbull says the government has committed record levels of funding and will insist on top standards.
Bill Shorten says if resources don’t matter, why do parents send their kids to private schools now?
Question eleven is investing for and in our grandchildren.
Malcolm Turnbull says every child in Australia needs a great education and a great teacher.
Bill Shorten says he has three kids at school. He says he understands the importance of education.
Anyone who tells you money doesn’t matter in education is selling you a pig in a poke.
He says Labor’s plan for growth is an educated population.
Keep it down out there people, please.
A friend arrived for the first margarita. It’s worried about rent rises @murpharoo pic.twitter.com/EZEyW8UfwK
— MattyD (@OzMattyD) May 13, 2016
Question ten is childcare funding – a lady who plans to return shortly to work after maternity leave estimates she’ll earn two dollars an hour after she pays childcare.
Bill Shorten says Labor will unveil a childcare policy shortly. Malcolm Turnbull says as a grandfather, he totally gets the problem with childcare costs.
Right on board. Your concerns are our concerns. We are going to deliver a better childcare system for you.
Bill Shorten says hang on, you’ve delayed your childcare package and given wealthy people a tax cut.
Question nine is hospitals funding in the regions.
Malcolm Turnbull says the government is committed to funding hospitals but needs to drive the dollar further.
Bill Shorten says Labor will spend more on hospitals and schools, and Labor will pay for that by getting rid of Abbott government policies, such as the emissions reduction fund and the marriage equality plebiscite.
Malcolm Turnbull:
We are long way from regional hospitals, Bill.
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Question number eight is arts funding. How about those cuts?
Bill Shorten says Labor will reverse some of these cuts and properly fund the ABC. He says kiddies need a chance to fall in love with the arts at school.
Malcolm Turnbull says the government’s commitment to schools funding is enormous. (Again, a little rash). He says the government supports the arts, but the dollar must go further.
Turnbull says the only winner from royal commissions are lawyers. Then it’s Shorten’s turn to be sardonic. Plenty of lawyers won during the union royal commission, he says. Turnbull uses the opportunity to speak about combating lawlessness.
Seventh question is banks are bastards.
Malcolm Turnbull says banks are highly regulated and they deliver a good service to Australians and the government keeps a very close eye on them. (Deliver a good service may be a little rash in an election season. #justsaying)
Bill Shorten says a royal commission into the banks is well overdue.
The questioner wants the government to make the banks lower interest rates now the RBA has cut rates. Why can’t you make them?
Turnbull says he made some remarks recently to the banks about having a customer centred culture, and the government has boosted the regulator.
We are right onto that.
The prime minister says Bill Shorten has recently likened banks to criminals. He thinks this is terrible. Unfortunately for the prime minister there’s a smattering of applause at the Shorten locution.
Speers asks Shorten whether he believes banks are criminals. Shorten says he doesn’t believe that, but he thinks there are cultural issues.
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Sixth question is on superannuation. Can’t we have access to our own money to buy a house? That’s where it starts anyway.
Malcolm Turnbull thinks this lady has done a great job paying off her home loan over 28 years, which leads the prime minister to rents. Bill Shorten is going to put up rents.
Speers says we aren’t talking rents, we are talking about accessing super to buy a house. The questioner comes back. We need a home to live in. What are you going to do about it?
Turnbull says superannuation isn’t there to fund home loans. It’s there to provide for people in retirement. If you allow super to be drawn out before retirement they won’t have money in retirement.
Bill Shorten says Labor has no plans to allow people to use their super to pay for their homes. Shorten says he’d like to be liked by everyone watching, but it’s better to tell the truth.
Turnbull grins fairly sardonically at that.
Shorten is onto housing affordability now and negative gearing and investors and unfair competition. Why should every taxpayer subsidise something that only a few people use, Shorten wonders.
Speers wonders why the prime minister thinks rents will go up. The prime minister says anyone who knows anything about property knows rents will go up, ask the real estate agents.
Ok, Shorten says, you want a third party view on our policy, how about the Reserve Bank. They back us. So does Jeff Kennett. So does Joe Hockey.
Turnbull says negative gearing isn’t about millionaires. It’s about people earning less than $80,000, and a lot of them live around this venue.
Shorten says plhueeze. Those income figures aren’t what they seem. The current system allows people to minimise their taxable income.
Speers wants to know about the excesses in negative gearing that Scott Morrison nominated earlier this year. They are sorted, Turnbull says. Old story.
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I said these forums are a combo of obvious and random.
Fifth question is on extradition arrangements and Serbia.
Malcolm Turnbull explains how extradition laws work. Shorten agrees with the prime minister’s explanation and says he’ll speak to the lady afterwards.
Fourth question is privatisation. What is the point of governments if you want to privatise everything?
(Strong thematic consistency in this session thus far.)
Bill Shorten says the privatisation pendulum has swung too far.
He segues to Medicare, to Tafe.
I believe an economy shouldn’t govern the community.
Malcolm Turnbull says the privatisation of big businesses belonging to the federal government have largely happened. He says it’s now state assets that are being privatised.
It’s really an issue for state governments, David.
Q: What about Australia Post?
Turnbull says it’s not on the agenda, and has David seen the accounts? It’s not time to flog it off. He repeats, no plans.
Speers asks about the Australian Submarine Corporation? Turnbull says core assets of the ASC will remain in public ownership.
Shorten says the government shouldn’t privatise hearing services if Turnbull is serious about keeping key assets in government ownership. Speers throws that to Turnbull. Turnbull says he’s keen on hearing impaired people getting good services, that’s his priority.
Shorten says look at America and the health system.
Government-run propositions are not always bad for health care or the bottom line.
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Third question is on GP co-payments. Are you going to have those?
Malcolm Turnbull says bulk billing is on the rise, and that means not paying a premium when you go to the doctor. He says healthcare has to be affordable to the patient and to the taxpayer.
Speers says Tony Abbott introduced a co-payment. What’s Turnbull’s position?
That’s no part of our policy.
Q: Never ever?
No.
Bill Shorten says sick people need to be able to go to the doctor. Labor is opposed to getting rid of bulk billing incentives, he says. Shorten says Labor’s health policy is coming soon.
I don’t want to go down the American path.
Speers says what’s the detail though? Shorten says it’s coming.
Turnbull grabs the microphone. He says the government has reached agreement with pathologists so they will continue to bulk bill screening tests.
Shorten grabs the microphone back.
Labor believes in Medicare full stop.
Turnbull grabs the microphone back. Speers presses him on freezing rebates to doctors in the budget. That makes going to the doctor more expensive, Speers says. Turnbull opens the door a chink. We will continue to review it.
There’s some news.
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Second question is multinational tax avoidance. It’s a long preamble. Speers wants Bob to come to the question. Bob comes to the question. It’s about deeming.
Bill Shorten opens on this question. He says Labor has been at the front of the curve on multinational tax avoidance. Businesses have to pay their fair share.
Speers breaks in, what about deeming?
We are open to all ideas.
Q: So you support it?
Well no, he’s not supporting it, on reflection. Now he thinks he’ll talk to Bob afterwards. (Shorten clearly isn’t across Bob’s deeming idea but doesn’t want to offend Bob, or say he isn’t across it.)
Malcolm Turnbull says great idea Bob, we are already doing it. We have a diverted profits tax. We announced it in the budget.
Bob looks very pleased.
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Questions now
First question is is about offshoring. Do the leaders have any plans to stop the outsourcing trend so we can keep jobs in Australia? And what’s the plan to attract multinationals to Australia.
Malcolm Turnbull thinks this is a great question. A great question. (Have I mentioned jobs and growth?)
We need to be more competitive and our taxes are too high.
On outsourcing, Turnbull empathises, but he says the government’s objective is to make the country more competitive.
Bill Shorten grabs the microphone. Thanks for that Malcolm, but this was a government that sent the car industry packing. Shorten says Labor wants to maximise Australian content.
We stand up for Australian manufacturing.
Shorten flicks the switch to renewables manufacturing. And we love Medicare, we won’t privatise it, he says.
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Bill Shorten counters
Bill Shorten opens more quietly than Turnbull, in fireside chat mode. Again, it’s the stump speech. Putting people first.
It’s basically the stump speech: innovation, the defence spend, looking after young people, and the spending is all fully funded. Turnbull is rocking slightly, projecting to the back of the room.
Malcolm Turnbull makes his opening pitch
The prime minister won the coin toss so he gets the opening statement. Malcolm Turnbull opens with .. you won’t believe it .. jobs and growth.
The leaders are being ushered into the room now. A grip and grin. Then a repeat grip and grin for the photographers.
People's forum now underway
Moderator David Speers is now outlining the rules of engagement for this evening. He’s looking quite cheerful.
If Sky brings on a body language expert, I'm going to end up on an ASIO black list
— Possum Comitatus (@Pollytics) May 13, 2016
(The body language expert was on about 5pm. Shoosh. Don’t tell.)
The moderator for tonight’s debate is Sky News political editor, David Speers. Speers runs a tight ship. Suspect nonsense will be kept to a minimum.
It’s about fifteen minutes to kick off now. The host broadcaster Sky News has had a roving cast of fillers. Right now the former head of the business council and the author of the Abbott government’s commission audit, Tony Shepherd, is commenting about what the people of western Sydney are expecting tonight. I’ll just leave that thought out there and drink my fizzy pop, quietly.
No stamina.
@btckr @murpharoo "A rip roaring Friday night" I know rip roaring friday nights, and I can tell you, this is not one of them.
— Michael Grelis (@Mickledrippin) May 13, 2016
Certainly sounds like a rip roaring Friday night at the Windsor RSL.
Good evening to Magic Mike Bowers. We are definitely in second Sydney airport territory.
Malcolm Turnbull is in the house in Windsor.
These town hall events are an interesting mix always of the bleeding obvious and the totally random. The questions people ask will give us all a good guide about whether the key campaign themes being pursued by the major parties are registering at the end of week one.
They are also a good reality check in the sense that people always ask questions about issues the leaders don’t expect.
Speaking of the end of week one, we have this evening launched our campaign podcast, Australian Politics Live. My colleague Lenore Taylor and I will produce an episode a week for the duration of the campaign. Our aim is to have a conversation about the contest and about our various projects and about the issues we find interesting – and then, time permitting, have some guests join us to provide their perspectives.
Our guests in episode one are the campaign spokespeople, the Coalition’s Mathias Cormann and Labor’s Penny Wong. We don’t want these conversations to be a recitation of talking points, we want to try and go behind the scenes to bring you a perspective you might not get if you just consume the intra-day circus. Where else could you learn, for example, that Penny Wong gets hangry.
Have a listen. If you like it, subscribe – and let us know what you think.
Sky tells me that the Labor leader Bill Shorten has arrived at the Windsor RSL. Fair contingent of protestors out there now.
Local Labor members gathering outside #leadersdebate at Windsor RSL (raffle tickets go on sale at 5pm) #ausvotes pic.twitter.com/pYdiIreZww
— Annika Smethurst (@annikasmethurst) May 13, 2016
Hello good people of live blogs
Good evening everyone and welcome to our live coverage of the first leader’s debate of the 2016 federal election campaign. Where else would you rather be on a Friday night? Certainly not watching the first semi-final of Eurovision.
Oh no sir, certainly not. You’d be clamouring for politics, in Sydney’s west. So here we all are, delighted with our bounty. Order in pizza, crack open a bottle of pinot, slip your ugg boots on, and get ready for a big night of #ausvotes. Oh, that’s just me? Never mind. Given it’s never a good idea to drink alone I’ll do us all a favour and keep the pinot on hold until stumps.
As I mentioned in the opening greeting, tonight is the first head-to-head between Turnbull and Shorten. Unlike a lot of political journalists, and some members of the public, I absolutely refuse to be bored by this campaign. Despite my mildly regretful monologue about opportunity cost at the opening of proceedings, I’m very interested to see how Malcolm Turnbull and Bill Shorten perform at tonight’s event. This forum is hosted by Sky News and takes place in front of one hundred undecided voters in western Sydney. The town hall is being held in the Windsor RSL in the electorate of Macquarie, currently held by the Coalition. The local MP Louise Markus has represented the electorate since 2010.
At the Windsor RSL for tonight's People's Forum in Western Sydney #ausvotes pic.twitter.com/TH2wrT3w9I
— Adam Todd (@_AdamTodd) May 13, 2016
Let’s begin with a bit of scene setting.
Apart from a public outing in Adelaide earlier today, Turnbull has tried to run week one of the campaign firmly in small target mode. No challenging interviews, a light public schedule, one daily media conference with only a handful of questions.
The prime minister’s communications this week have been variable to say the least. Tonight, Malcolm Turnbull has no choice but to climb on the high wire with only minimal safety equipment. It will be interesting to see how that goes. Turnbull always backs his capacity to charm and communicate, and at his best he is a very good communicator. Lately he hasn’t been a particularly disciplined communicator. By that I don’t mean that he should sound like a talking point spouting robot, merely that he understand the likely issues coming his way, and exhibit a degree of clarity and tidiness in the answers.
As for Bill Shorten, he probably benefits from being seen as the underdog in this session. I suspect that helps the Labor leader more than it hurts. The other structural benefit of debates for opposition leaders is it places them in a position of equivalence: voters can literally line up the candidates side by side and make an assessment. If you bring your A game as opposition leader, then debates help your campaign. If you strike out, obviously that’s profoundly unhelpful. Shorten has been practising these town hall sessions over the past few months, and there’s been coaching behind the scenes. Let’s see if practice makes perfect.
So with that preamble, let’s stride purposefully into our evening. Magic Mike Bowers is on the spot out at the debate venue, bless him. Tonight’s comments thread is open for your business, bless you people. If the thread’s too bracing for you, we are up and about on the twits – he’s @mpbowers and I’m @murpharoo. If you speak Facebook you can join my daily forum here. And if you want a behind-the-scenes look at the day and the looming campaign, give Mike a follow on Instagram. You can find him here.
Fluff the pillows on the sofa, push the cat off your lap to allow unencumbered viewing of your laptop or tablet or smart phone, pop your feet up – here comes a rip roaring Friday night.
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