The Liberal Democratic Party is facing particularly tough battles in the prefectures of Hokkaido, Osaka and Okinawa, according to a Yomiuri Shimbun survey gauging voter sentiment in the final stages of the House of Representatives election campaign.
The largest opposition party, the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan, has a strong foothold in Hokkaido, while Osaka Prefecture is the base of Nippon Ishin no Kai (Japan Innovation Party). In Okinawa Prefecture, opposition parties have been supported by All Okinawa, a local political force that includes both conservatives and reformists and has significant clout in political affairs in the prefecture.
According to the survey, the LDP holds the upper hand in only two of Hokkaido's 12 constituencies. In contrast, the CDPJ, which has fielded candidates in each of the 12 constituencies, appears to be ahead in seven of them while running neck and neck with LDP candidates in three others.
Labor unions representing government workers have strong influence in Hokkaido, where there has been a tradition of strong support for the now-defunct Democratic Party of Japan and the Social Democratic Party. In the 2017 lower house election, opposition votes were divided among multiple candidates. As a result, the CDPJ secured only four seats in Hokkaido, while the LDP won six. In the upcoming election, however, five opposition parties have united to support a single candidate in some constituencies, thus gaining the upper hand through the final stages of the election.
"How far we can increase the number of seats in Hokkaido will be directly linked to an increase in our overall number of seats," a senior CDPJ member said.
In Osaka, with a total of 19 constituencies, Ishin is seen as having an advantage in 11 of the 15 constituencies in which it has fielded candidates. Ishin's Secretary General Nobuyuki Baba, who is running in Osaka Constituency No. 17, and other party members have held a steady lead, while the party's candidates are fighting close battles in the remaining four constituencies. The party is likely to gain significantly more seats than in the previous election, in which it won three seats.
Ishin leader Ichiro Matsui, who built a good relationship with former Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga, has been increasingly critical of the administration of Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, saying that the current administration "is standing on the side of people with established interests."
The three ruling coalition candidates who do seem to hold the upper hand in Osaka constituencies are all Komeito candidates. There is a possibility that all of the LDP candidates in the prefecture will go down to defeat.
In Okinawa, opposition candidates are seen leading LDP candidates in three of the prefecture's four constituencies. Even in the No. 4 constituency, which has a relatively large conservative base, Toru Kinjo of the CDPJ and Kosaburo Nishime of the LDP, who currently serves as state minister in charge of Okinawa and northern territories affairs, have been in a tight battle, according to the survey.
Read more from The Japan News at https://japannews.yomiuri.co.jp/
