It is becoming increasingly unclear whether the ruling Liberal Democratic Party will be able to achieve party executives' goal of initiating constitutional revisions in the Diet this year, as Prime Minister and LDP President Shinzo Abe's influence is waning amid the ongoing case over the sale of state land to school operator Moritomo Gakuen.
Abe stressed his stance of seeking constitutional amendments at a meeting of the secretaries general of the LDP's local branches on Saturday. Revising the Constitution has been a party policy since its foundation.
At a lecture meeting on the same day at the party headquarters in Tokyo, Hiroyuki Hosoda, chairperson of the LDP's Headquarters for the Promotion of Revision of the Constitution, called on party officials, including senior members of the prefectural branches, to cooperate in their efforts for a national referendum on constitutional revisions.
"I sincerely ask you to prepare a conducive environment to get a majority -- not 51 [percent] but at least over 60 or 70 [percent] -- in a national referendum by making efforts everywhere," Hosoda said.
The lecture meeting was an excellent opportunity to thoroughly inform party members of the leadership's intention of aiming to initiate constitutional revisions in the Diet by the end of this year, as the meeting's participants included representatives of the local party branches and local assembly members belonging to the party.
Having just solidified its position on how to revise a total of four constitutional items on Thursday, officials at the Headquarters for the Promotion of Revision of the Constitution envisioned a scenario in which they could take advantage of possible momentum by strongly appealing to the public opinion, according to a senior party official.
Less enthusiasm in party
Inside the party, however, there is currently not as much enthusiasm about the constitutional revisions as previously expected, as the Cabinet is facing headwinds over the alteration of official documents on Moritomo Gakuen.
At the lecture meeting, some attendees encouraged the party executives regarding constitutional revision. "See this out to the end without wimping out," one participant said. But some others expressed concern over the viability of revision.
At the later meeting of local secretaries general, a member from Osaka Prefecture gave his view on the Moritomo Gakuen issue. The party "should fulfill its accountability" over the document alteration scandal, the participant said.
In his address at the meeting, Abe first expressed his deep regret over the Moritomo issue and then only briefly mentioned the constitutional revisions.
The party can be said to have lost its driving force for the constitutional amendments, as the prime minister has been bearing the brunt of criticism over the Moritomo issue. Some in the party have gone so far as to worry that constitutional revision proposals will be seen as Abe's proposals.
The Moritomo issue will likely cast a shadow over talks between the ruling and opposition parties.
Eyeing the period from Sunday's party convention onward, the LDP hopes to realize a schedule during which it will propose its draft of constitutional revisions to the commissions on the Constitution in both chambers of the Diet, engage in a series of talks between governing and opposition parties, and officially submit the draft to the Diet during its extraordinary session in autumn.
Nevertheless, the opposition parties are fiercely opposed to the government's current stance over the Moritomo issue, risking the passage of work style reform bills, which the government has prioritized.
Doubts linger over Komeito
Komeito -- the junior partner in the coalition government -- is not particularly sympathetic toward the LDP, as it has been traditionally cautious about constitutional revision.
"The LDP has put together constitutional amendment proposals just to be in time for the party convention," a Komeito senior official said.
Kazuo Kitagawa, chairperson of the Komeito's research commission on the Constitution, has shown understanding toward revisions of the national referendum law, which are advocated by the opposition parties.
Within the LDP, suspicions are lingering that Komeito might choose to prioritize revising the national referendum law in cooperation with the opposition parties, thereby putting off discussions on constitutional revisions.
If it becomes difficult to initiate constitutional revisions in the Diet by the year-end, the schedule set by the LDP will be more problematic to realize.
A key issue in the House of Councillors election in summer next year is whether over two-thirds of the seats will continue to be taken by the ruling parties and members in favor of constitutional revisions. The LDP wants to propose constitutional revisions before the upper house election at the latest, but other important events such as the nationwide local elections and the Emperor's abdication are scheduled.
Even the LDP itself is not unified on the issue. In the LDP presidential election scheduled in September, confrontations will likely resurge over how to stipulate provisions regarding the Self-Defense Forces in the Constitution.
Former LDP Secretary General Shigeru Ishiba, who has shown his willingness to run for LDP president, criticized the prime minister Friday on his blog.
"I have a strong sense of unease over how [the LDP] decided [to maintain Article 9] without any explanation from the party president," Ishiba said.
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