Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga will finish his term as president of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party at the end of September, and the term for members of the House of Representatives will expire on Oct. 21 unless Suga decides to dissolve that body sooner. An autumn dissolution would put the LDP presidential election and the lower house election close together, narrowing the options for the timing of the dissolution.
The prevailing opinion in the government and the ruling parties is that it would be difficult to dissolve the House of Representatives and hold a general election amid the Tokyo Olympics and Paralympics. Under the LDP's presidential election rules, the date for the election needs to be decided by the end of August, a deadline that falls after the Olympics (July 23-Aug. 8) and during the Paralympics (Aug. 24-Sept. 5).
The LDP presidential election must take place within the last 10 days of the incumbent's term, with the start of campaigning within 12 days before the voting date. The earliest schedule would be a campaign kickoff on Sept. 8 and ballot counting on Sept. 20. The winner of the presidential election will likely have to decide whether to dissolve the lower house immediately after the election or to let the term for the house expire.
However, one of the strategies Suga is considering is "winning the lower house election first, and then getting through the presidential election without difficulty," a person close to Suga said. Although there is no strong candidate to replace Suga within the party, there is concern that party members may try to remove Suga from the top post if he loses more support from the public on the measures to deal with the novel coronavirus.
Some plans would involve postponing the presidential election date, which can only be done if the LDP rules are revised. This would likely require the approval at the joint plenary meeting of LDP members of both houses of the Diet. But there is no precedent for moving the date.
In 1999, when then Prime Minister Keizo Obuchi's term was about to expire, some senior LDP officials planned to move up the September presidential election in order to reelect Obuchi without a vote. The planned maneuver aimed to prevent Koichi Kato and others who were seeking to run for president from having time to prepare to do so. In the end, the election was not moved up, and was held as stipulated in the rules.
Even if the prime minister does not go through the process of revising the rules, there still is a possibility that he will dissolve the lower house after the announcement of the presidential election schedule. In such a case, the presidential election is likely to take place after the lower house election. Criticism could arise from within the party that the prime minister tried to use delaying tactics in order to prolong his term.
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