Would the party entrust the task of leading the country to Prime Minister Shinzo Abe after summing up his running of the administration? This is an important occasion for the Liberal Democratic Party to make a judgment. Robust policy discussion is called for.
Fumio Kishida, the party's Policy Research Council chairman, has announced that he will not run in the LDP presidential election in September, but instead will support Abe, who is seeking his third consecutive term in office. Over the past five and a half years, Kishida has supported Abe as a foreign minister and later as a policy affairs chief. His decision not to run for the presidency can be considered as a decision made from a wider perspective, with his eyes fixed on running in years ahead.
Within the faction led by Kishida, there were those who expressed stances that were supportive of a showdown, saying Kishida should stand up to Abe. The factions led by Hiroyuki Hosoda, Taro Aso and Toshihiro Nikai, respectively, have already taken the policy decision to support Abe. Kishida seems to have considered that there would be no prospects for him even if he were to declare his candidacy.
He should make preparations for the future, by fulfilling key posts and pursuing his tasks diligently. Maintaining his faction's solidarity is also a challenge.
Abe will declare his intention to run for the presidency, as early as in the latter half of August. As he can also gain support from the Kishida faction, Abe will receive an overwhelming majority of votes from the party's lawmakers and will hold a dominant position over others even when the votes from rank-and-file LDP members are taken into account.
Former LDP Secretary General Shigeru Ishiba, who has shown a strong will to run for the presidency, is energetically continuing his visits to regional areas, with an aim of increasing support from rank-and-file party members. It is hoped that Ishiba will challenge Abe to a debate by advocating policies different from the prime minister.
In the party presidential election held three years ago, Abe was reelected unopposed. The LDP should have the presidential race, to be contested for the first time in six years, lead to reinvigorating the party.
Present clear proposals
LDP presidential candidates need to make clear concrete prescriptions for the key challenges Japan faces.
The international community has been thrown off balance by the administration of U.S. President Donald Trump's "America First" trade policy. How should Japan advance the bilateral talks with North Korea, in parallel with the negotiations on the denuclearization of that country? Looking squarely at the turbulent international situation, the candidates must present policies to deal with these issues.
It should also be considered essential to sum up the Abenomics economic policy package pursued by the Abe administration and to discuss economic policies to be taken in the future. Although the economy remains relatively firm, it has yet to bail itself out of a deflationary phase. They should talk about ways to have the virtuous cycle of the economy lead to wage hikes and to an increase in private consumption.
Fiscal reconstruction and what the social security system should be like will be contentious issues.
People are looking critically at issues related to private school operator Moritomo Gakuen and the Kake Educational Institution. There is no doubt that there have been such lax discipline and arrogance stemming from the long-lasting administration. By looking back at his policies with an open mind, Abe should clearly prioritize the issues which he intends to tackle in his next term.
In the presidential election, the same number of votes are cast by the party's lawmakers and those by rank-and-file LDP members. It is important to increase the support from the rank-and-file members. The LDP plans to grant voting rights, as a special case, also to 18- and 19-year-old members who have paid their party fees. This is a judgment made by taking into account the fact that the voting rights for 18-year-olds have been realized.
It is the next year's House of Councillors election when the true value of the party will be tested. In what state of preparedness and with what sort of policies the party should deal with the upper house election could also be taken up for discussion during the presidential election.
(From The Yomiuri Shimbun, July 26, 2018)
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