The three candidates in the Liberal Democratic Party presidential election are scrambling to win votes allocated to local party organizations in each prefecture. According to a survey conducted by The Yomiuri Shimbun, Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshihide Suga has an advantage over LDP Policy Research Council Chairman Fumio Kishida and former LDP Secretary General Shigeru Ishiba. The three have begun to contact party chapters to explain their intentions.
-- Self-made politician
"I am the eldest son of a farmer, and farmer's blood is flowing in my body. The central government wants to create an environment where laboriously made products lead to farmers' income," Suga spoke from the Diet member's office to senior members of the LDP's Niigata prefectural chapter via videoconference on Friday.
Since Suga is the chief cabinet secretary in charge of crisis management, such as dealing with typhoons, it is difficult for him to campaign and conduct other activities far from Tokyo.
Regarding press conferences held twice a day in his capacity as chief cabinet secretary, "I basically do it by myself," Suga said.
Because of this situation, Suga has begun holding web conferences with the party's local organizations, and the meeting with the Niigata prefectural chapter was the first.
According to the Yomiuri Shimbun survey of Diet members, many respondents supported Suga, saying he can be expected to continue the Abe administration's policies. They also appreciated Suga's own policies and leadership.
"Self-help, mutual assistance and public assistance" is the key to disaster response, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe said at an awards ceremony at the Prime Minister's Office on Friday. When Suga announced his candidacy, he also cited the expression as the basic principle of his policies. Regarding Abe and Suga saying the same thing, a veteran lawmaker of the LDP's Hosoda faction said Abe "effectively named him as his successor."
Suga's camp is also trying to gain more votes from local chapters to create an impression of his legitimacy as Abe's successor with broad support from the public.
After graduating from high school, Suga moved from Akita Prefecture to Tokyo, became a member of the Yokohama municipal assembly, and was elected to the Diet.
The camp hopes that LDP local assembly members will appreciate his career as a self-made politician. "I will win the way I am," Suga said to his aides with confidence.
-- Facing a tough battle
Kishida and Ishiba received only limited support from LDP factions other than their own, according to the Yomiuri Shimbun survey.
Bearing in mind that, if they don't win this time, they will run for the next presidential election in September next year, both candidates have a strong desire to avoid coming in third and are trying to gain more votes from local chapters.
Kishida's camp is making every effort to prevent members of his faction from giving their support to other candidates, and is considering having Kishida himself visit rural areas. "If Kishida is third in the election, his faction may disappear," a member of the Diet said.
On Friday, Kishida visited Fukuoka Prefecture, home to Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister Taro Aso, who supports Suga, and paid a courtesy call to a local LDP prefectural chapter.
Kishida aims to expand his support in the prefecture, where Makoto Koga, honorary chairman of the Kishida faction, is based.
But in rural areas where there are no lawmakers belonging to his faction, Kishida is expected to face a tough battle.
Ishiba, meanwhile, won the largest number of votes from local party members in the 2012 LDP presidential election. Ishiba fought well against Prime Minister Shinzo Abe in the 2018 presidential election and is aiming to win a large number of votes this time as well.
According to the survey, many Diet members appreciated Ishiba because he was popular among the public.
On Friday, Ishiba showed reporters that he had had his hair cut at a barbershop in the Diet members' office building. "I feel so refreshed," he said with a smile.
Ishiba is believed to be trying to promote himself to party members nationwide through aggressive media exposure.
On Friday, Ishiba announced his campaign pledges. He has proposed to appoint a cabinet minister in charge of correcting the excessive concentration of power in Tokyo. A plan to relocate about 3 million people to rural areas by the middle of the 21st century is also included in his proposal.
Ishiba held a meeting Friday night in Osaka with members of the Osaka prefectural assembly and called for support.
-- Impact of primaries
The LDP's 46 prefectural chapters are expected to hold their own primary elections. That means most LDP members are likely to have the opportunity to express their opinion, as all prefectures in Japan except Akita will hold a primary. As of 2019, the LDP had about 1.08 million members.
To avoid the impression that "the party's president is determined solely by the will of Diet members," the headquarters of the party has announced financial support and called for an active primary.
Each prefectural chapter can cast three votes. "It is important [for a prefectural chapter] to decide the fate of the three votes based on the opinions of party members after primaries," Hiroshige Seko, secretary general for the LDP in the House of Councillors, said, at a press conference on Friday.
In an ordinary LDP presidential election, the results of counting party members' votes are not disclosed until Diet members' voting is over so as not to affect lawmakers' votes. But there is no such a rule in a primary.
"The results of the primary affect the votes of the Diet members," a veteran LDP lawmaker said. In fact, in the 2001 LDP presidential election, Junichiro Koizumi, who was seen as being at a disadvantage, defeated Ryutaro Hashimoto after a landslide victory in the primaries, and was elected LDP president.
Caption:
The Yomiuri Shimbun
Prefectural assembly members of the LDP's Niigata prefectural chapter attend an online meeting with Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshihide Suga in Niigata City on Friday.
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