Bears tight end Jimmy Graham recalled Saturday that even the great Sean Payton gave up play-calling duties with the Saints, and Graham should remember — he was indirectly responsible for the first instance.
In 2011, Payton turned over play-calling responsibilities to offensive coordinator Pete Carmichael, Jr. when he was forced to the press box after he suffered a broken leg and a torn MCL when Graham ran into him on the sideline while being tackled by Buccaneers linebacker Quincy Black in a 26-20 loss to the Bucs.
The Saints already were fifth in the league in scoring at the time, but they reached another level with Carmichael calling the plays. The next game, the Saints set a franchise scoring record in a 62-7 rout of the 0-6 Colts — scoring touchdowns on their first four possessions.
In 10 games under Carmichael at the controls, the Saints averaged 37 points and 476 yards a game — best in the NFL in that span. They scored 40 or more points five times. In the playoffs, the Saints beat the Lions 45-28 and lost to the 49ers 36-32.
The same thing happened to Payton as offensive coordinator with the Giants in 2002. The Giants were 31st in scoring (12.7 points per game) when Jim Fassel took over play-calling duties at mid-season. They were fourth (25.7 points per game) with Fassel calling the plays — and went 6-2 to make the playoffs, losing 39-38 to the 49ers.
Change is often good in the NFL. In 2012, Ravens coach John Harbaugh abruptly fired offensive coordinator Cam Cameron in Week 15 after the offense scored 28 points in a loss to the Redskins. Fueled by Joe Flacco’s incredible postseason run — 11 touchdowns, no interceptions, 117.2 passer rating — under new coordinator Jim Caldwell (the victim of the Saints’ 62-7 rout), the Ravens won the Super Bowl.
The common denominator in those instances, of course, is that the Saints and Ravens already were credible if not above-average offenses to begin with. In fact, that scenario arguably produced the Bears’ current plight. It was Matt Nagy’s success as a play-caller with the already potent Chiefs in 2017 — averaging 27.2 points in five regular-season games after taking over for Andy Reid — that made him the hot coaching candidate he was when the Bears hired him in 2018.
Nagy’s 2020 Bears are not in that realm. The Chiefs team he took over as play-caller was ninth in yards and seventh in points. The Bears’ offense he’s turning over to offensive coordinator Bill Lazor is 29th in yards and points.
So while change can make a good offense better, it rarely if ever makes a bad offense good. Still, there’s often an immediate bump in production even when the move is made out of desperation.
When Vikings coach Mike Zimmer fired John DeFilippo as offensive coordinator in 2018 (“At that point we were struggling, I was just grasping at straws,” Zimmer said this week.), the Vikings scored touchdowns on their first three possessions against the Dolphins in their first game under Kevin Stefanski and won, 41-17. Two weeks later, they hit the wall against the Bears, losing 24-10 to end their playoff hopes.
And when Lazor replaced Ken Zampese as offensive coordinator of the Bengals in Week 3 in 2017, quarterback Andy Dalton had passer ratings of 124.1 in a 27-24 loss to the Packers and 146.0 in a 31-7 rout of the Browns. The Bengals won three of their first four games with Lazor calling the shots. But they still finished 32nd in yards and 26th in points that season — and 7-9.
So the lesson is the same as it often is when it comes to a Bears offense: set the bar low. Bill Lazor isn’t likely to turn the Bears’ offense into the juggernaut Nagy envisioned when he was hired. The good news? With their defense, they don’t need that much of a bump on offense to make a difference.
