The recognition of a Palestinian state by the UK, Canada and Australia will set off a global diplomatic scramble as Israel considers retaliatory annexations in the West Bank, a move that would deepen its standoff with Europe, widen its rift with the Arab states, and further distance the US from its allies around the world as the Trump administration maintains support for Netanyahu and Israel in its war in Gaza.
Washington had warned allies ahead of Sunday’s announcement that Israel would retaliate “symbolically” and top officials were aware that Israel’s response could imperil cornerstone Trump administration initiatives including the Abraham Accords, which sought to normalise relations between Israel and the Arab states but appear in danger of collapse.
And the recognition of Palestine by the other members of the Five Eyes alliance, some of the US’s closest allies in intelligence matters, will increase tensions at a time when the partners are already at odds over aid to Ukraine as well as bilateral issues such as tariffs.
In an open letter, senior Republican lawmakers warned the British prime minister, Keir Starmer, Canada’s PM, Mark Carney, and the Australian PM, Anthony Albanese, on Sunday that “proceeding with recognition will put your country at odds with longstanding US policy and interests and may invite punitive measures in response”.
What remains unclear is whether the US will actively endorse Israel’s response – including a potential takeover of parts of the West Bank – or whether the Trump administration has merely agreed not to stand in Netanyahu’s way, as Israel increasingly appears to hold the initiative in its relationship with the US.
Members of Netanyahu’s rightwing government have already floated a maximalist plan to annex 82% of the West Bank as a response, cutting off the remaining Palestinian territories from each other.
Netanyahu’s nationalist national security minister, Itamar Ben-Gvir, on Sunday said that the move “requires immediate countermeasures” and that he would submit a proposal for “sovereignty in Judea and Samaria”, the biblical term for the region often used by hardliners.
But even if the maximalist plan endorsed by Israel’s far-right finance minister, Bezalel Smotrich, is not adopted, Netanyahu could declare at least a symbolic annexation of territories internationally recognised as Palestinian land, potentially during a speech to the UN general assembly this week.
The move would anger Arab countries such as the United Arab Emirates, where officials have called an annexation of the West Bank a “red line”, and could lead to a downgrade of diplomatic ties just five years after they officially recognised Israel alongside Bahrain, making them the first Arab states to do so since Jordan in 1994.
It would also increase support for new sanctions and tariffs in the EU, raising tensions between Israel and Brussels at the same time as the US is reportedly planning to sell nearly $6bn (£4.5bn) in weapons to Israel, including $3.8bn (£2.8bn) for 30 AH-64 Apache helicopters, and $1.9bn (£1.4bn) sale for 3,200 infantry assault vehicles.
On Sunday, Netanyahu said Israel would retaliate for Sunday’s announcement after his visit to the UN.
“We have doubled Jewish settlement in Judea and Samaria – and we will continue on this path,” he said. “The response to the latest attempt to force a terror state upon us in the heart of our land will be given after my return from the United States. Wait for it.”
Starmer in his announcement on Sunday said the goal was to “revive the hope of peace and a two-state solution”. Yet Israel has made it clear that it views a two-state solution already as defunct, with Netanyahu saying bluntly: “There will be no Palestinian state.”
The remarks came at a ceremony marking the expansion of the E1 project between Jerusalem and Ma’ale Adumim, which would effectively cut the Palestinian-controlled sectors of the West Bank in two.
Smotrich said last month that he believed the plans would “bury” the idea of a Palestinian state.
