The race for No 10 has tightened as Boris Johnson and Jeremy Corbyn enter the final lap, an exclusive Ipsos MORI poll for the Evening Standard reveals today.
Labour are gaining support and have narrowed the gap, while the embattled leader has improved his personal ratings.
The state of the election, with just six days left of campaigning, has the Conservatives on 44 per cent (unchanged since two weeks ago), Labour on 32 per cent (up four points from 28), the Liberal Democrats squeezed to 13 (down three) and the Brexit Party on two per cent (down one).
With the Tories 12 points ahead, the detailed survey will boost Tory hopes of an overall majority.
The findings are disastrous for Lib Dem leader Jo Swinson, whose policy to revoke Brexit without a second referendum has come under fire, and Brexit Party founder Nigel Farage, whose support has crashed amid splits in his ranks and his decision to pull 317 candidates.
The battle could yet throw up surprises. Mr Johnson’s personal ratings are lower than Theresa May’s were a week before the 2017 election when she lost her majority. Mr Corbyn’s are even worse.
In other key findings:
- Brexit remains the biggest issue for voters, with the Tories ahead of Labour as having the best policies. Health, on which Labour is ahead, has risen to a close second in importance to voters.
- Four in 10 voters oppose a second independence referendum for Scotland even if Nicola Sturgeon’s SNP wins the most seats and demands one. Three in 10 would agree to a referendum.
- Mr Johnson’s satisfaction scores have worsened, with 56 per cent of voters saying they are dissatisfied with his performance. Some 36 per cent are satisfied with him, which compares with Mrs May’s score of 43 per cent a week before she lost her majority.
- A third of Labour supporters are dissatisfied with Mr Corbyn. Among the general public just 24 per cent are satisfied (an improvement of nine points since October) and 68 per cent dissatisfied (down seven). His scores are poorer than they were a week before he lost the 2017 election (39 per cent satisfied, 50 per cent dissatisfied).
Mr Johnson is well ahead as the most capable PM, winning by 47 to 31 per cent. However, in 2017 Mrs May led Mr Corbyn by 50 to 35 per cent.
Ms Swinson’s scores have declined as her profile has risen. Currently, 29 per cent are satisfied, and 51 per cent dissatisfied.
Gideon Skinner, heed of political research at Ipsos MORI, said: “People are making up their minds. The question is whether Labour are able to squeeze any more in the last week.” He added: “There is little sign of any softening in the Conservative vote.”
