As a three-day truce begins in Aleppo, Russia has begun its “largest surface deployment” since the end of the Cold War in what is thought to be preparation for a final assault on besieged rebels in the city.
Eight Russian warships and the country’s only aircraft carrier left Murmansk on Wednesday, sailing past Norway and into the English Channel en route to the Mediterranean, a senior Nato diplomat said, citing Western intelligence reports.
The fleet will be escorted by Royal Navy warships on Thursday while it sails through British waters.
“They are deploying all of the Northern fleet and much of the Baltic fleet in the largest surface deployment since the end of the Cold War,” the diplomat said on condition of anonymity.
“This is not a friendly port call. In two weeks, we will see a crescendo of air attacks on Aleppo as part of Russia's strategy to declare victory there,” the source added.
Rebel-held areas of Aleppo - home to 250,000 civilians - have faced the most intense air campaign of Syria’s six-year-long civil war since a seven-day ceasefire broke down last month.
The Russian and Syrian air force strikes have killed around 500 people and decimated medical infrastructure, monitors say, in attacks many governments have condemned as war crimes.
Moscow and Damascus have both reiterated that bombing only targets the around 8,000 US-backed rebel fighters and 900 former or current members of al-Nusra thought to be inside east Aleppo’s siege barricades.
A three-day-long humanitarian ceasefire schuduled for Thursday to evacuate the wounded and allow rebels and civilians the ability to leave for neighbouring rebel-held Idlib province was criticised by the UN, who said it could not carry out aid work unless security guarantees were met.
Retaking the entire city would be a significant victory for President Bashar al-Assad, effectively relegating rebels to the far north and south of Syria.
“With this assault, it should be enough to allow a Russian exit strategy if Moscow believes Assad is now stable enough to survive,“ the diplomat said.
Russia began providing military support to the Syrian regime in September 2015, after parliament voted to assist Mr Assad in defeating Isis in the north of the country.
An October IHS Conflict Monitor report found that Russian air strikes on Isis territory has decreased from 26 per cent of total strikes at the beginning of 2016 to 17 per cent in the third quarter, suggesting that Moscow’s real intention is to “transform the Syrian civil war from a multi-party conflict into a binary one between the Syrian government and jihadist groups like [Isis]; thereby undermining the case for providing international support to the opposition.”
