The fallout from Novak Djokovic’s loss to Denis Istomin in the second round of the 2017 Australian Open is likely to ripple through tennis for a little while yet. It might take him weeks or several months to recover, or he could hit back hard at the next opportunity, which will be the defence of his title in Indian Wells, starting on 9 March.
Last year, he annihilated Milos Raonic in the final there for the loss of two games; the odds of a repeat coronation are longer than the Yarra River.
It was impossible to tell from his downbeat demeanour after losing in five sets to Istomin – whom he had beaten out of sight in five previous matches - how deep the bruises went, but one thing was obvious: the old certainties about him have splintered. No longer is his progress to the final of any tournament he enters taken for granted; now there is not just doubt about his winning titles, but even contesting them.
This Djokovic is some way removed from the player who, only a year ago, embarked on a campaign to win a calendar slam with such vigour he turned bookmakers into cowards. He arrived in Melbourne this time without Boris Becker, who had helped him to win six of his 12 slams, and the German remarked on Thursday, “I could tell in the first set he was way too defensive and way too passive.”
Becker’s departure from the Djokovic box after three interesting years followed the Serb’s hooking up with a former fringe player from Spain, Pepe Imaz, who became his life coach. The player who once used to rip his shirt to shreds when driven to to the limit on court, eyes bulging and fists pumping, has acquired a softer mien, reaching out to the crowd with upward arms gesture of shared love. That is admirable, but we should learn over the next 12 month sor so if it presages the decline of Djokovic as a player and his simultaneous growth as an individual.
Physically, even, he does not carry the same presence. A respected former player said before the start of this tournament that he met Djokovic at a reception and was surprised to notice the lack of definition in his arms. He has always been wiry, but never thin. His strength was elastic, perfect for his calling. But, even before he lost to Istomin, there were moments in the second-set tie-break of his first-round match against Fernando Verdasco (who held five match points against him in Doha recently) when he looked exhausted.
On Thursday, he finished well enough but his lateral movement was passive rather than explosive. The miracle returns were missing. So was the growl and the frightening passion. He some times would get into trouble against lower-ranked players, but usually found a way to extricate himself from embarrassment, especially over five sets. He did it across the long haul here last year to beat Gilles Simon in the fourth round, overcoming the weight of 100 unforced errors.
This, though, is a different Djokovic. This is a player whose belief in miracles seems dented. And that painful realisation comes at the end of the toughest six months of his career.
In his press conference, he was calm and philosophical. When I asked him if this defeat hurt more or less than it might have done a year ago when he was at his imperious best, he replied, “I didn’t understand your question.” He went on to say he was not used to losing at a tournament where he has won six titles, which is understandable – but there was something about his demeanour that hinted at relief – just as when the burden of chasing the calendar slam ended for him at Wimbledon.
After so many years on the tour, and expectations rammed to the highest level every time he plays, Djokovic might be embracing a return to his version of ordinariness, a place where he can rest from the journey for awhile. It would go against his competitive instincts to meekly accept defeat – as lesser players do when it becomes commonplace – but he is an intelligent man and will understand that he is more vulnerable now than he has been since his irresistible rise began in 2011, when nobody was safe from his racket, not even Rafael Nadal on clay.
As with Roger Federer and Nadal once their hegemony began to slowly crumble, the locker room senses blood again. Djokovic’s slump, however temporary, will stiffen sinews and bring a brightness to the eyes of the advancing brigade of young challengers, such as Alexander Zverev and Dominic Thiem. Nadal plays Zverev next. Thiem plays Benoit Paire. Those are winnable matches that could launch the fledgling aspirants into the second week of the tournament – and then we might learn if they are capable of building a serious charge to a major title in an era that seems ready for change.
It is a measure of Djokovic’s greatness, paradoxically, that his peers, critics and fans regard his third implosion in three consecutive slams as a cause for concern, rather than an aberration. This was supposed to be his time, the post-Nadal-Federer reign, with Andy Murray tugging at his purple robes occasionally but mostly falling short.
Murray’s ascent to world No 1 in a run that began with his second Wimbledon title – after Djokovic’s third-round loss to Sam Querrey, whom Murray crushed here on Friday – has altered the dynamic at the top of the men’s game in a way that few foresaw. When Stan Wawrinka outlasted Djokovic to win the US Open, the pace of the change quickened.
Djokovic’s loss to Istomin, the most inexplicable of his career, means he will be hard-pressed to challenge Murray for supremacy in the rankings until at least the French Open in May, given he lost so many points here as a quickly-beaten champion and has a swag of points to defend on the American hardcourt swing, then the European claycourt season ahead of Roland Garros.
That proved to be the highpoint of his 2016 season: securing ownership of all four majors at once. It was a phenomenal effort – but one that drained him to the point of meltdown at Wimbledon.
Injuries and off-court issues complicated his life and his tennis, which he briefly put back together by winning the Rogers Cup in Canada, only to suffer another setback when Juan Martin Del Potro dumped him out of the Rio Olympics.
He bombed in the Paris Masters but came again to reach the title-decider of the ATP World Tour Finals in London, where Murray beat him soundly. When he got revenge in a three-hour final in Doha, they looked set for a confrontation on roughly level terms in Melbourne, where they contested the final a year ago. But Istomin, 117 in the world and in the draw thanks to a wildcard, did not read the script.
With his coach and mother looking on in disbelief and joy, the Uzbeki played the match of his life and Djokovic was left shattered and confused. You would not bet he cannot come back; neither would you bet that he will ever be so dominant again.
