There are a few factors at work this offseason for the Green Bay Packers that could lead to GM Brian Gutekunst taking a bit of a bigger swing in free agency.
“I think we’re getting to a little bit better spot than we have been in the past,” said Gutekunst at his season-ending press conference. “It’s never perfect, but I do feel that whatever opportunities are out there to improve our team in free agency, that we’ll be able to do that, so I feel good about that.”
For one, the window to win is right now, and maximizing that opportunity with impact players is, of course, going to make sense.
But in addition to that, when it comes to where available cap space could go this offseason, the Packers are lacking extension candidates from their 2020 and 2021 draft classes, along with there also not being any high-priority free agents that Gutekunst must re-sign.
Jordan Love is the only member from either class who will receive an extension, and he may end up being the only member of the 2020 class still on the team in 2024. Eric Stokes, Josh Myers, TJ Slaton, and Isaiah McDuffie, members of the 2021 class, will all play out 2024 on the final year of their rookie deals, while Royce Newman could be a cut candidate to free up some cap space.
As far as the Packers’ own free-agent class goes, Jon Runyan is Green Bay’s highest-ranked free agent in PFF’s top 150 free agents list, ranking 92nd overall. Given the depth at safety, one could make a case as to why Darnell Savage could be back, or why it would be valuable to bring back two-time All-Pro Keisean Nixon, but neither player falls into the Packers have to do this category.
While the 2020 and 2021 draft classes didn’t turn out as well as hoped – although hitting on Love is really all that matters from 2020 – the 2022 and 2023 draft classes have been really good, which has helped limit the number of pressing needs that the Packers have this offseason.
Like every team, there are holes on the roster to fill, but given the makeup of the roster, along with having 11 draft picks, including five in the top 100, the Packers aren’t in a position where they have to splurge in free agency.
Gutekunst will do what he always does: explore all options, and if the right player can be had at what the Packers view as the right price, they’ll probably make some sort of push. And for the reasons already discussed, there is going to be more flexibility to do that this offseason, potentially leaving more cap space to go towards outside free agents.
At the moment, Over the Cap has the Packers at $2.8 million over the 2024 projected salary cap. Ken Ingalls, who independently tracks the Packers’ salary cap situation, estimates that roughly $30 million in cap space will need to be created to cover normal operating expenses, such as signing the draft class and practice squad, along with other incoming costs.
That $30 million figure does not include free agent additions, but Ingalls also mentions that by cutting David Bakhtiari and Royce Newman, post-June 1st cutting De’Vondre Campbell, along with restructuring the contracts of Kenny Clark, Rashan Gary, Jaire Alexander, Aaron Jones, Elgton Jenkins, and Preston Smith to the max, the Packers can create $79.7 million in cap space. That would then leave them with $50.8 million to spend in free agency.
Now, Ingalls adds that for the sake of the 2025 salary cap and beyond, the Packers shouldn’t do all of this. But what it does illustrate is the options that the Packers have if the right player(s) comes along in free agency.
“I think it just depends on the player,” said Gutekunst. “It depends on who that is and how he can impact our football team. I don’t think we’ll shy away from adding impact players if we have to push things down the road. We’d prefer not to do that, but at the same time, this is about winning and trying to win a championship, so if that’s something that makes sense, we’ll do it.”
For what it’s worth, the last time the Packers had to cover up some misses from prior draft classes was in 2019 when Gutekunst went and signed Preston Smith, Za’Darius Smith, Billy Turner, and Adrian Amos in free agency. Now, in no way do I expect a similar spending spree to take place; as I mentioned, this current roster, along with the draft capital that the Packers have, has the 2024 roster in much better shape than at the time of those signings.
However, it does go to show how Gutekunst has handled a similar situation in the past.
