LABOUR’S Andy Burnham may win a crucial Westminster by-election thanks to a far-right party taking votes from Reform UK, polling has suggested.
Voters in Makerfield will go to the polls to elect a new MP on June 18 – the same day as two by-elections in Scotland – and Burnham is hoping to win a seat in the Commons in order to challenge Keir Starmer for the Labour leadership.
However, Nigel Farage’s Reform UK are strong in the constituency – winning more than 50% of the vote in eight wards that held local elections earlier in May – and could block Burnham’s route to power.
A new poll by Survation has suggested the Makerfield by-election is too close to call – but that Reform may lose out due to voters backing the far-right Restore Britain party, set up by former Reform MP Rupert Lowe.
Survation’s poll of 504 voters in the constituency found that 43% said they would vote for the Labour candidate Burnham, while 40% said they would vote for Reform UK candidate Robert Kenyon.
Restore Britain’s candidate Rebecca Shepherd polled in third place on 7% of the vote. The LibDems polled at 4%, the Greens 3%, and the Tories 2%.
Restore Britain is a far-right political outfit which has been backed by two of Britain’s most prominent neo-fascist leaders and, more recently, Scottish businessman and former Dragons’ Den star Duncan Bannatyne.
The poll further suggested that Burnham’s personal vote is helping Labour. Polled on general Westminster voting intention without specific candidates, 45% of Makerfield locals backed Reform UK, while 34% backed Labour. The Greens then polled third on 7%.
Reform appear concerned that Restore Britain could cost them the election. Matt Goodwin, who failed to win the Gorton and Denton by-election for Farage's party, wrote on social media: "What do Andy Burnham and Rupert Lowe have in common? They are both in this for their egos – not the country. They are both in this because they hate somebody else.
"Burnham hates Starmer. Lowe hates Farage. Neither genuinely care about Britain. Vote Reform."
Elsewhere, an Ipsos poll found that Reform UK lead Labour by seven points nationally.
The survey, published on Sunday, put Farage’s party on 27%, with Labour in second place on 20%. The Tories polled third on 19%, and the Greens fourth on 14%. The LibDems came fifth on 12%, while “other” polled at 8%.
Ipsos director of politics Keiran Pedley said: "Following a successful local election, Reform UK maintain a solid lead over Labour in terms of voting intention.
"Looking ahead, whilst Keir Starmer’s leadership of Labour – and position as Prime Minister – are clearly under threat, it is notable that only Andy Burnham stands out as a popular alternative with the public. Which makes the Makerfield by-election such a politically consequential event."
Ipsos found that Burnham is most likely to be seen as having what it takes to be a good prime minister (28% of the public said he does). However, his net rating is zero as 28% disagree.
Farage and Tory leader Kemi Badenoch (both polled at 24%) closely follow Burnham, but have much lower net totals (Farage’s -33 and Badenoch's -18), as more people disagree they have what it takes to be a good prime minister.
For Starmer, 19% said he has what is needed to be a good prime minister, while 60% disagree, giving him a net score of -41.
Ipsos interviewed a representative probability sample of 1137 British adults aged 18+ between May 14-20.
Survation interviewed 504 people in Makerfield between May 18-22.
