Labour will announce at lunchtime whether Tessa Jowell, the longstanding frontrunner as the party’s candidate for London mayor, has faced down a challenge mounted by the former shadow justice secretary Sadiq Khan.
The electoral system and franchise is the same as for the national leadership elections but confined to those on the London electoral roll. The outcome will be revealed on Friday, a day before the party leadership result.
Jowell will be hoping her name recognition, efficient campaign and reputation as someone capable of defeating the Conservatives in London will make her immune to the left surge in the party.
Khan, a member of Ed Miliband’s inner circle, cannot claim the same break with the past as Jeremy Corbyn, but he has relied heavily on support from the Unite union and run a powerful campaign.
Diane Abbott, a close political ally of Corbyn and Ken Livingstone, the former mayor, has been emphasising her similarities with Corbyn but has not won his explicit endorsement.
The other candidates in the race are David Lammy, the MP for Tottenham, Christian Wolmar, the transport writer and activist, and Gareth Thomas, MP for Harrow West, who wants to devolve more economic powers to London.
The electorate has not been formally announced, but it is thought to be 21,800 affiliated members, 63,900 full members and 28,600 registered supporters paying £3 to vote. So the London electorate is 21% of the total Labour electorate and will give a hint at how the national election has gone, as well as turnout.
The candidates with the fewest votes will drop out in succession, with their supporters’ second preference votes redistributed until someone has 50% of support.
The Conservatives have yet to choose their candidate, but it is expected to be Zac Goldsmith, the wealthy environmentalist and MP for Richmond Park.
Central issues in the election next spring will be airport expansion in the south-east, housing and the powers of the mayor, but the personalities of the candidates will play a critical role. The contest will be seen as an early verdict on Corbyn’s leadership of Labour, assuming he wins on Saturday, and the relationship between Corbyn and Jowell, if she is elected as Labour candidate, will be critical.
Goldsmith prizes his independence from Downing Street, so both candidates are likely to make a virtue of their differences with their national leadership.
In previous London mayoral elections, the efficient Labour machine got out the vote in inner London but was not able to overcome strong Conservative support in the suburbs. Jowell hopes she has appeal beyond the inner-city heartlands.
At a rally in London on Thursday night, Corbyn supporters claimed that even if their candidate falls at the last hurdle on Saturday, he will have won by changing the party permanently and giving voice to a more radical alternative.
Len McCluskey, the Unite general secretary, said he had been bored by the three mainstream candidates, but Corbyn had electrified the election.
