Labour support in London is at a record low, according to a new poll as Rachel Reeves is set to clobber the capital with a wave of tax rises.
The Chancellor is due to impose a series of tax hikes or new levies in her Budget on Wednesday including a “mansion tax” on expensive properties which will hit London hardest.
She is widely expected to freeze the thresholds for paying income tax for another two years which will drag hundreds of thousands of people in London and the wider South East into paying higher rates of income tax.
She is also believed to be planning to restrict a salary sacrifice pension scheme, which will impact on many employees, as she seeks to plug a shortfall of around £20 billion in the public finances.
The Chancellor has frozen rail fares for commuters and is set to scrap the two-child benefit cap in a move which will help tens of thousands of families in the capital and cost around £3 billion.
However, with her tax-raising Budget, Ms Reeves risks a backlash from voters, particularly those on high and middle incomes, ahead of London local elections next May.
London has for many years been a Labour stronghold but the party’s support has plunged since the General Election last July, down from 43% to 32%, according to the latest Savanta poll for Centre for London.
The 32% is the joint lowest recorded by Savanta for Labour support in the capital, with the same result in June, having surveyed the city since at least 2020.
Nigel Farage’s Reform UK has seen its backing in London jump from 15% in June to 23%, leapfrogging the Tories.
The Conservatives are down one percentage point from 21% to 20%, with the Liberal Democrats on 11%, down two points, and Greens 10%, down three points.
Reform is ahead of both Labour and the Conservatives among Londoners aged 65 and over, on 35% compared to 14% and 32% for the other two parties respectively.
Mr Farage’s party is level-pegging with Labour among voters in the capital aged 55 to 64, both on 31%, ahead of the Tories on 23%.
Reform is also gaining support from younger Londoners, on 23% for the 18-24 age group, almost identical to the Greens on 22%, ahead of the Lib-Dems on 12%, but behind Labour on 31%.
Antonia Jennings, chief executive of Centre for London, said: “The political make-up of London has shifted.
“This comes after decades of political parties ignoring Londoners struggles and underappreciating the capital’s role in the UK economy.”
She branded “the narrative that London is a city paved with gold” as false, stressing that one in four Londoners live in poverty after paying for housing.
Chris Hopkins, Political Research Director at Savanta, said: “Labour’s struggles nationally chime with the latest London figures, down significantly from where they were 18 months ago at the General Election.
“They keep their noses in front, but would be well on course to lose a lot of seats if these figures were replicated at a General Election.”
He also stressed: “This will of course spell danger ahead of next year’s local elections in London.
“The last equivalent elections were in 2022, and Labour came away with well over 1,100 seats. That sort of result feels incredibly improbable on current polling, with Reform UK looking like a force in the capital for the first time ever.”
* Savanta interviewed 1,242 adults in London online between October 30 and November 7. Data are weighted.
