Scottish Labour has seen a four-point increase in its constituency vote, a new poll suggests, as the SNP remains on track for election victory in May.
The survey by Ipsos Scotland spoke to 1,096 people between February 19 and 25, with the SNP maintaining its lead with 36% of the constituency vote and 26% on the regional list – an increase of one point and drop of two points since the firm’s last poll in December, respectively.
Labour has increased its popularity in both ballots, rising by four points to 20% in the constituency vote and one point to 19% in constituencies.
Reform UK has seen its poll surge falter slightly, dropping two points to 16% in local areas and by three points to 14% in the regions.
NEW Holyrood voting intention
— Ipsos Scotland (@IpsosScotland) March 4, 2026
📊SNP maintain comfortable lead over Labour
📊4-point rise for Labour since Dec 2025
📊Reform UK’s share has fallen to 16%, down 2 points since Dec 2025
➡️ https://t.co/6Z4w9vGDnD pic.twitter.com/isBM4XpdhB
The Conservative decline also continued, with Holyrood’s current second biggest party sinking by two points to 9% in constituencies and one point to 11% in regions.
While the Liberal Democrats increased support by a single point to 10% in constituencies and three points to 10% in the regions, the Scottish Greens dropped two points to 7% in constituencies and one point to 16% in the regions.
The poll also found 40% of respondents have not definitely settled on the party they will vote for on May 7, with 72% of Reform voters saying they would not move and 64% of support for the SNP being solid.
But Labour and the Conservatives can only rely on 56% and 52% of their vote, respectively, to definitely back them in May.
When asked which party is most likely to attract them, 24% of respondents said they would back the Greens, 21% said they would go for the Lib Dems and 16% for Labour.
Angus Robertson, Scotland’s Constitution Secretary and the SNP’s campaign director, said the poll shows voters are “putting their faith in John Swinney”.
He added: “While the Westminster parties tear themselves apart over scandal and infighting, the SNP is on Scotland’s side, delivering on the priorities of the people of Scotland.
“Our NHS is starting to turn a corner under our plan, and the SNP Scottish Government offers the best cost-of-living support package available on these islands – that’s the difference John Swinney’s focused leadership brings.
“Broken, Brexit Britain is in terminal decline and amid the chaos coming from Westminster, Scottish voters are increasingly concluding we need a fresh start with independence – that is on the ballot paper in May and only a vote for the SNP can secure that future.”
Scottish Labour deputy leader Dame Jackie Baillie said: “Scotland is being let down by a tired SNP Government that can no longer get the basics right.
“It’s clear that only Scottish Labour can beat the SNP and fix their mess – restoring our NHS, improving our schools, tackling the housing emergency and making communities safer.
“Reform has no answers to the challenges we face and no chance of beating the SNP.
“The choice Scotland faces in just over nine weeks is more of the same with John Swinney and the SNP, or a better future with Anas Sarwar and Scottish Labour.”
