Labour faces a crucial test across middle England, Wales and Scotland to keep control of historic Labour county councils, in bellwether areas that could give an early picture of the scale of losses the party may face at the general election.
The most keenly watched battle, as a potential predictor of the party’s fortunes in England, will be the West Midlands mayoralty, where party figures said it was “too close to call” between Labour’s Siôn Simon and Tory candidate Andy Street, the former boss of John Lewis.
Senior Labour figures said the party’s strength was its historic base and activists in the city who could get out the vote on the day. “Labour have a far stronger base, so there is some hope,” one source close to the campaign said.
In council elections, Labour is forecast to lose around 175 seats, half of them in Wales, and could lose control of all their Scottish councils. With the Tories in the ascendancy in the east and West Midlands, both Jeremy Corbyn and Theresa May launched their local election campaigns in Nottinghamshire.
Academics from the Political Studies Association have predicted 115 seats gained for the Conservatives in England, 85 for the Liberal Democrats and 75 losses for Labour, but the greatest damage will be to Ukip, which could see 105 losses. Labour is predicted to lose more than 100 seats in Wales alone, and the Conservatives could gain 50 or more seats from a low base.
Cumbria council, which Labour runs in coalition with the Liberal Democrats, is one area where the party fears it could lose seats, after the Copeland byelection was won by the Conservatives. But Stewart Young, the Labour leader of Cumbria council, said: “Our feeling is that our vote is holding up pretty well.”
As activists geared up for a final day of campaigning, the party’s national executive committee confirmed nominations for the general election at a crunch meeting on Wednesday. Key allies of Corbyn have not been selected in prime seats, while the NEC also voted down a last-minute motion to deselect John Woodcock, a vocal critic of the Labour leader.
Several leftwing candidates including former Corbyn spokesman Sam Tarry and speechwriter David Prescott are not on the party’s list of selected candidates. Nine of the 13 seats vacated by retiring Labour MPs will be fought by female candidates as the party seeks to ensure its ratio of women in parliament does not go backwards.
Tarry, a councillor in Barking and a political officer for the TSSA union, had been hotly tipped for Alan Johnson’s former seat in Hull West, but has not made the final list, rubber-stamped by the NEC on Wednesday, ahead of Thursday’s vital local elections.
No candidate has yet been selected in Rochdale, where suspended MP Simon Danczuk has been told he cannot re-stand, but Tony Lloyd, the former MP and interim mayor of Greater Manchester, is said to be in “pole position” for the seat. Katy Clark, the former MP and Corbyn ally, has also been connected with the constituency.
Leftwing members of Labour’s NEC prepared a motion to deselect Woodcock, the MP for Barrow and Furness, at the meeting on Wednesday, after the outspoken MP said he would not back Corbyn to become prime minister, but this was defeated.
All 2015 candidates who did not win their seats were given the chance to re-stand, but only around a third have opted to do so. Not a single former Scottish Labour MP who lost a seat in 2015 has been reselected as a candidate. Momentum’s Rhea Wolfson, elected to the NEC last year, will stand in Livingston.
At least four former MPs in England and Wales are seeking re-election: pro-Corbyn Chris Williamson in Derby North, Julie Hilling in Bolton West, David Drew in Stroud, and Chris Ruane in Vale of Clwyd.
- This article was amended on 4 May 2017. An earlier version included Chris Ruane in a list of “former MPs in England” seeking re-election, and omitted David Drew from that list.
