The opinion polls won't make pleasant reading for Tony Blair as he gets ready to call the election today, with all four of them showing Labour's leading slipping. The Guardian/ICM poll has the party down to 37%, the Tories on 34% and the Lib Dems on 21%. The Times/Populus poll calls it 37-35-19, the Independent/NOP 36-33-21, and the FT/MORI 38-33-23.
Labour will be worried, though election chiefs view the election much like a boxing champion views a title bout: it's good to be afraid of your opponent. A shrinking poll lead will help them get their message across - that the election is a choice between a Labour and a Tory government, not a referendum on the present one – and motivate their supporters to get out and vote.
ICM finds that the Tories have overtaken them on law and order, and lengthened their lead on asylum and immigration, but it's the swing towards the opposition on tax and public services – where Labour's lead has been cut from 10 to 3 points – which will alarm ministers. Elections have historically been won or lost on the economy.
It appears that the comments of Howard Flight - the sacked Tory MP who suggested the party would cut public spending by more than it has admitted - has not had much affect on voters. It has, however, changed the media's attitude to Labour's claims that the opposition plan £36bn worth of cuts. Reporters can not so easily dismiss the charge as they did when it was first aired last month.
