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Evening Standard
Evening Standard
Nicholas Cecil

'Get the Tories out' mood gives Labour a 33-point lead in London - new poll

Labour has a 33-point lead in London amid signs of an “anti-Conservative” mood which could make it harder for them to hold onto a string of marginal seats in next week’s election, according to a new poll.

The Savanta survey for the Mile End Institute at Queen Mary University of London found 55 per cent of Londoners planning to vote Labour, 22 per cent Tory, ten per cent for the Liberal Democrats, eight per cent for Reform UK, and five per cent for the Greens.

Strikingly, only 60 per cent of Londoners who voted for the Lib Dems in 2019 say they would vote for the party again if there was a general election tomorrow.

Instead, 29 per cent of those who voted for the party at the last general election say they would now vote Labour.

Dr Elizabeth Simon, Postdoctoral Researcher in British Politics at Queen Mary University of London, said: “The fact that over a quarter of Londoners who voted for the Liberal Democrats at the 2019 General Election are now saying they will vote Labour is likely reflective of ‘anti-Conservative’ sentiment in the capital.

“There appears to be a willingness to vote tactically to minimise the chance that Conservative candidates are elected, among Londoners.”

She added: “A consolidation of the vote on the ‘left’ of the political spectrum could spell trouble for the Conservatives in seats like Carshalton and Wallington, Chelsea and Fulham, Cities of London and Westminster and Wimbledon, where the total share of votes on the ‘left’ were outweighing, or close to outweighing, the Conservative vote share in the 2019 contest.”

In some seats Labour is in second place behind the Conservatives, in others it is the Liberal Democrats.

The Evening Standard has compiled an interactive map of all 75 seats in London including the key battleground contests.

Just two thirds of Londoners (64 per cent) who voted Conservative in 2019 say they would do so again if there was a general election tomorrow.

Fifteen per cent of these 2019 Tory voters in the capital say the plan to vote Labour, and 17 per cent for Nigel Farage’s Reform party.

Eighty-five per cent of Londoners who voted Labour in 2019 intend to do so again.

The poll also found that around one in ten of the votes cast in London on July 4th may be tactical.

Nine per cent of London voters say they will back a different party than the one they would really prefer to support as the latter has no chance of winning in their constituency.

When asked which issues were most important to them in determining which party they will back, 51 per cent of Londoners who are likely to vote named the NHS in their “top three”, and 49 per cent stated inflation and the cost of living.

Thirty-seven per cent cited the economy, 29 per cent housing, 28 per cent crime, and 25 per cent immigration.

The poll also showed Londoners tend to believe Labour has better plans, policies or approaches on these key issues.

On inflation and the cost of living, 41 per cent of Londoners who are likely to vote say Labour has the better plan, policy or approach, with 22 per cent opting for the Tories.

The respective breakdown on the NHS is 48 per cent Labour, 17 per cent Conservatives, on crime 41 per cent to 19 per cent, on housing 48 per cent to 17 per cent, on the economy 40 per cent to 26 per cent, and on immigration 36 per cent to 20 per cent.

Londoners can find a list of all candidates for the five main parties in the 75 constituencies across the capital in this new Evening Standard database.

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