Sir Keir Starmer could see Labour lose its grip on his north London council in a Green surge in the capital on May 7, according to a new poll.
The MRP survey by JL Partners for the London School of Economics (LSE) showed the Green Party and Labour neck-and-neck in Camden, with 33% to 32% of the vote share respectively.
There are currently 44 Labour councillors on the Camden local authority, just one Green, six Liberal Democrats, three Conservatives and an independent.
But Zack Polanski’s Greens are expected to win hundreds of seats across the capital in the May local elections, making significant gains in Camden borough which includes Sir Keir’s constituency of Holborn and St Pancras.
“Polling suggests Labour could lose control of Camden and end up having to rely on the Liberal Democrats or Conservatives if they want to stay in power,” Professor Tony Travers, director of LSE London, told The Standard.
Labour could also try to run a minority administration, having to garner enough support from other parties to pass a Budget and other key decisions.
The Greens, who may be the second largest party on the council, could also try to form a power-sharing coalition with other parties or run a minority administration but local government expert Prof Travers believes they would find it “harder” to do so.
Since its creation in 1965, Camden has nearly always been run by Labour, apart from when the Conservatives took control between 1968 to 1971 and when there was no overall control from 2006 to 2010.
Many wards across the capital are expected to be won by small majorities given the fragmentation in British politics so the outcomes of the elections at borough level are very hard to call.
But the big picture facing London, from a string of polls, is a major Green surge, significant gains by Nigel Farage’s Reform UK in Outer London, a collapse in the Labour vote, the Tories winning and losing some councils, the Liberal Democrats making modest gains, and possibly the election of more pro-Gaza and other independent candidates.
“The result looks set to deliver the most profound change to London’s politics since the shocking result of 1968, when Labour was wiped out by the Conservatives,” explained Prof Travers.
The Greens are projected to emerge as the clear second political force across much of Inner London.
They are ahead in vote share in Haringey, on 37%, level-pegging with Labour in Newham on 34%, and Lewisham 35%, and threatening Sir Keir’s party in Hackney, with 37% and 40% respectively.
Labour faces falling into second place in seven boroughs it currently controls, according to the findings, with its vote share down by 15 points on average across the capital.
In Barking and Dagenham, where Labour secured some 80% of the vote in 2022, its support is expected to nosedive to just 44%, but still remain comfortably ahead of any other party.
Sir Keir’s party won the Tory stronghold councils of Westminster, Wandsworth and Barnet in 2022, the last time the borough elections were fought.
It may hold onto Westminster, where it is ahead of the Tories by 34% to 29%.
The Conservatives are now leading in Wandsworth, by 27% to Labour’s 24%, and the two parties are neck-and-neck in Barnet, on 24% and 25% respectively.
Backing for the Conservatives in a hotly-fought contest in Croydon will almost halve, from 38% in 2022 to just 21%, according to the modelling, while in Bexley, Hillingdon and Bromley it could drop by more than a third.
Reform UK is forecast to make its strongest gains in outer east London, and appears set to gain Havering where it is picking up 40% of the vote, possibly also Bexley where it is ahead of the Tories by 35% to 29%, while it trails Kemi Badenoch’s party in Bromley by 25% to 27%.
Mr Farage has suggested three boroughs, Havering, Bexley and Barking and Dagenham, may want to break away from London.
Many boroughs are expected to end up with no overall control, with the largest party in 13 councils being less than 5 percentage points ahead of the runner-up.
The borough outcomes could also depend heavily on whether the parties pile up votes in some areas or have a more even spread which could allow them to win more seats.
Sir Ed Davey’s Liberal Democrats are ahead of Labour in Merton, their key target council, by 31% to 23%.
MRP polls are based on large-scale polling of sections of society and extrapolating to get constituency or council level results.
Tom Lubbock, co-founder of JL Partners which interviewed 2022 Londoners for this survey, said: “The Green Party, Reform and Independent parties are making significant inroads to the point where a small swing against Labour would mean them losing a swathe of councils.
“Control of so many councils could come down to very fine margins, which makes outcomes much more volatile at the local level.”
