Labour may lose 36 seats in Scotland at the next election, according to a staggering new poll by Ipsos Mori for Scottish broadcaster STV.
It suggests that over half of Scottish voters intend to back the Scottish National Party (SNP) at the next general election, which would reduce Labour’s vote share to 23% - a drop of 19 points on the party’s 2010 result.
Exclusive STV poll on general election intentions: SNP 52% LAB 23%;Con 10%; LD 6% GRN 6%: UKIP 2%; Other 1% http://t.co/0HZ6RBKnPS
— STV News (@STVNews) October 30, 2014
STV project that with this result the SNP, newly led by Nicola Sturgeon, would have 54 Scottish MPs, leaving Labour with just four. This means that whoever is selected as Johann Lamont’s successor will have a lot of ground to catch up before next May.
How Scotland would supposedly look in 2015 if today's MORI poll was the real thing: SNP 54, LAB 4, LDEM 1. pic.twitter.com/SXaNj98Nhx
— Britain Elects (@britainelects) October 30, 2014
The SNP is expected to be a decisive factor in next year’s election, this poll suggests that previously rock solid Labour seats are now very much potentially under threat - and the extent of SNP’s impact would be devastating to Labour’s chances of winning a majority.
On top of the news from Scotland, yesterday saw the release of an Ipsos Mori poll with two important results:
- The NHS overtook the economy in the list of issues voters thought were most important
- Immigration, which is top of the list of voter concerns, is at a six-year high with 40% of voters saying it is a pressing issue
Concern about healthcare jumps 9pts to 34% in Issues Index - it's now the top issue for women at 41% v 27% among men pic.twitter.com/YRofe08pHt
— Bobby Duffy (@BobbyIpsosMORI) October 29, 2014
On the face of it the first point is good news for Labour. The NHS is the area where voters have the most trust in Ed Milband’s party while the economy is the issue on which the Conservatives are strongest.
In fact, healthcare is the only area where Labour have a considerable lead over other parties (see point 3 here) so its place at the top of voters’ agenda is key to the party’s electoral success.
A more detailed look at the results though reveals that just 7% of voters view the NHS as the most important issue compared to the 23% that pick immigration.
The sheer importance of immigration to voters is extremely good news for Nigel Farage’s Ukip who narrowly edge the Conservatives on this point.
The conventional wisdom is that this is bad news for the Conservatives - and that will definitely show itself as true if Ukip win the Rochester and Strood byelection next week - but the narrow Heywood and Middleton result last month showed that Labour are also in real danger from the surge in the eurosceptic party’s support.
All of this matters because voting intention is strongly influenced by the saliency of issues - the issues that voters feel are most important and the party they trust most on those issues.
With just six months to a general election, and with Labour and the Conservatives now neck-and-neck in most recent polls, Ed Miliband has a lot of work ahead of him.
