Afternoon summary
- Most Conservative voters in England would be happy to see the UK break up as the price of Brexit, a survey suggests. (See 5.09pm.)
- Dominic Raab, the Brexit secretary, has now reportedly shelved plans to go to Brussels this week for further Brexit talks. As the BBC’s Laura Kuenssberg reports, there are also suggestions that the EU will not be publishing a proper draft text of the declaration on the future UK-EU trade relationship on Wednesday, as some people were expecting.
Not now expecting Raab to go to Brussels this week, and any publication from Barnier on Weds might be pretty limited in scope - don't look for breakthrough this week altho the mood music has been much friendlier from Brussels in last few days after the Salzburg bustup
— Laura Kuenssberg (@bbclaurak) October 8, 2018
- Arlene Foster, the DUP leader, has restated her opposition to any Brexit deal that undermines the UK’s single market. As she set off tonight for a three-day visit to Brussels, during which she will meet Barnier and other EU figures, she issued a statement saying:
As we leave the EU, we should do so as one nation. The United Kingdom single market must be protected with no new borders between Northern Ireland and Great Britain being created. From day one this has been the DUP’s only red line.
This red line is recognising that Great Britain is Northern Ireland’s biggest market. Over 70% of all goods leaving Belfast port are destined for Great Britain. To create a barrier to that trade would be catastrophic. We want to see an exit deal which means Northern Ireland has unfettered access to and from the GB market but also fully beneficiaries of any new trade deals with the United Kingdom after Brexit.
Our red line also respects and protects Northern Ireland’s constitutional place in the United Kingdom. Many who claim to respect the Belfast agreement fail to respect the principle of consent which was part of that Agreement. Indeed, they would happily redraw the border and annex Northern Ireland away from the rest of the UK.
- The European commission has said that Jean-Claude Juncker, its president, was not mocking Theresa May when he made a dance move at the start of a speech this morning. (See 3.33pm.)
That’s all from me for today.
We’re hoping to keep comments open until 7pm. Thanks for all the ones so far.
Updated
John Swinney, Scotland’s deputy first minister, told the SNP conference that, with the majority of Scots paying less income tax than people in the rest of the UK, people are better off with the SNP. He told delegates:
With higher spending on economic development, and the level at which businesses start paying rates kept lower than the rest of the UK, it’s no wonder we’re outstripping the UK’s growth.
Looking at our poll numbers, it brings the pretty obvious conclusion that the people of this country know they are better off with the SNP.
Not only do we have more doctors, teachers, dentists, fire officers and more police - they are paid better too.
We are busy building the new Scottish economy that will deliver prosperity for generations to come.
Scotland's health secretary says whistleblowers should contact her directly if they're being ignored
Scotland’s health secretary has told NHS whistleblowing champions to come straight to her if they are not being listened to by their health boards. As the Press Association reports, Jeane Freeman said she would appoint the posts for each NHS board, amid concerns over bullying at some boards and a whistleblower resignation. Speaking at the SNP conference in Glasgow, she said:
Scotland’s NHS can only flourish when everyone who works in it feels confident they can raise their voice. That they will be free to speak and they will be heard.
If there are shortcomings our front-line staff are the first to see or hear them.
So let me be clear. If there is anyone in our health service who is feeling bullied or harassed I take that very seriously and I want you to come forward.
But speaking up about bullying or intimidation can be hard to do. You worry that you might be ignored or your concerns dismissed. You worry there might be repercussions on you ...
One step I will take is that I will personally appoint each board’s whistleblowing champion.
So if any one of these dedicated professionals feels they are not being heard in their boards, you come straight to me.
Photograph: Ken Jack - Corbis/Corbis via Getty Images
Majority of Tory voters in England would be happy to see UK break up as price of Brexit, survey suggests
According to research by the Centre on Constitutional Change, which is based at Edinburgh University, Brexit is “dislodging long-held red lines about the [UK] union”. It says a majority of Conservative voters in England would prefer to press ahead with Brexit even if it led to the UK breaking up.
Here is an extract from the news release it has sent out.
Clear majorities of English Conservatives would support Scottish independence or the collapse of the NI peace process as the price of Brexit
87% of (overwhelmingly unionist) leave voters in Northern Ireland see the collapse of the peace process as an acceptable price for Brexit ...
Nearly half (49%) of English Conservative voters do not think Scottish MPs should sit in the UK cabinet and, in worse news for David Mundell [the Scottish secretary] as the SNP gathers in Glasgow, 24% of Scottish Conservative voters agree with them
And here are some of the key poll findings.
These figures suggest that 77% of Conservative voters in England think Brexit would be worth it even if it led to Scottish independence, and 73% of them think Brexit would be worth it even if it led to the unravelling of the Northern Ireland peace process. Labour and Lib Dem voters are much less likely to say that, meaning that the Conservative and Unionist party is now arguable far less unionist than its rivals.
Commenting on the findings, Professor Richard Wyn Jones from Cardiff University said:
Strident protestations of faith in the future of the union of Great Britain and Northern Ireland from Theresa May and her leading ministers cannot hide the fact that that the union is under huge stress as result of Brexit. Ironically, that threat is posed at least as much by those who would regard themselves as unionists as it is by those in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland who actively wish the union’s demise.
An overwhelming majority of Conservative voters in England would prefer to see Scotland become independent and a breakdown of the peace process in Northern Ireland rather than compromise on their support for Brexit. But it’s not just Brexit. Half of English Conservative supporters want to stop Scottish MPs from sitting in the British cabinet altogether.
The bonds that have tied the union together have frayed to such an extent that, frankly, it’s hard to imagine that the proposed festival of ‘national renewal’ is going to do anything more than emphasise the extent to which we continue to drift apart.
And this is from Edinburgh University’s Professor Ailsa Henderson.
There is evidence that Brexit is dislodging long-held red lines about the union. If even unionists in Northern Ireland care less about the territorial integrity of the UK than pursuing Brexit, then it really raises questions about the type of union we’re in, and indeed what unionism means.
In the post at 3.22pm the link to the Commons library briefing paper on “Brexit Unknowns” was not working. But I’ve fixed it, and it should be fine now.
Juncker hits out at 'stupid populists'
Maybe it’s diplomatic crisis not averted. (See 3.33pm.) Jean-Claude Juncker, the European commission president, was speaking at an EU week of regions and cities event when he starting swaying to the music earlier, and according to the Press Association he made a point of not speaking in English. He said:
English is not the only official language of the EU, and as things are as they are, I will express myself in French and maybe in Luxembourgish.
Then he took a swipe at “stupid populists”. He told his audience:
In Europe, there is an increasing number of Eurosceptics and they tend to be promoting sceptical opinions.
But I think we need to talk to them. I would like to distinguish between those Eurosceptics who have questions to ask and opinions to make and those stupid populists. It’s not the same thing.
We need to distinguish between those stupid populists and the nationalists who have an opinion to put forward.
Sadly, at least according to the Press Association copy, he does not seem to have said which Brexiters he sees as “stupid populists” and which he regards as mere Eurosceptics or nationalists.
Photograph: Jean-François Badias/AP
Juncker was not mocking May's dance moves, says European commission spokesman
Margaritis Schinas, the European commission’s chief spokesman, has insisted that Jean-Claude Juncker was not mocking Theresa May when he broke into dance momentarily at a podium earlier. (See 2.28pm.) Diplomatic crisis averted ...
Relax James. Without a song or a dance what would our life be ? Not directed at anyone, improvisation on the moment as the music kept playing before he could start his speech. Great respect for @theresa_may repeatedly stated in public and demonstrated in practice. https://t.co/Jr9hzS9dQu
— Margaritis Schinas (@MargSchinas) October 8, 2018
UPDATE: A colleague points out that Juncker did seem to be referencing May, but that May’s conference dance was a joke at her own expense, and so all Juncker was doing (if he did have May in mind, which his spokesman denies) was sharing in her own, well-received moment of self-deprecation.
If Juncker had done the same thing a week ago, mocking May’s African dance moment unprompted, then that might have been offensive. But he wasn’t.
Updated
Jeremy Corbyn says the UK Statistics Authority letter out today shows the Tories are “misleading the public in a desperate attempt to hide the fact that they have cut school budgets.”
The @Conservatives are misleading the public in a desperate attempt to hide the fact that they have cut school budgets.https://t.co/RW92hzYxFQ
— Jeremy Corbyn (@jeremycorbyn) October 8, 2018
It was a striking figure, perfectly timed for Nicola Sturgeon’s eve of conference disclosure on Sunday she would support a second Brexit vote. According to a YouGov poll for the People’s Vote campaign released that day, 79% of Scottish National party members backed that stance. YouGov also found that 81% would favour a public vote if the UK government proposes leaving the single market.
But political scientists are sceptical about the poll’s results. And while it is unscientific, only a handful of SNP conference delegates backed the people’s vote at a Brexit fringe meeting on Sunday.
Professor James Mitchell, of Edinburgh University and co-author of the largest independent studies of SNP members, said he doubted it was truly representative of the SNP’s membership.
YouGov had a sample 665 SNP members drawn from its large panel of poll participants. Only 11% of those said they voted leave in the 2016 EU referendum, and 478 or 73% of its sample were aged 50 over – and of those, 201 were over 65. And 43% were female.
So this was a largely male and elderly group of pro-EU political activists. There was no weighting against the SNP’s actual membership and no information on where they lived, their educational background or social class.
Mitchell’s survey of SNP members has a quite different profile: the median age of SNP members is 56, with 50% aged under 54. By contrast, the YouGov poll has more women than the SNP as a whole: Mitchell found 38% were female overall.
And is the SNP as Europhile as YouGov suggests? A Survation poll for the Sunday Post this weekend confirmed a long-standing finding that about a third of SNP supporters voted to leave the EU in 2016: far more than in YouGov’s sample.
Seeing the YouGov data, Mitchell said:
Having surveyed [SNP members] after the surge and again we surveyed the most recent surge personally, I have my doubts about this survey. It involves self-selection – only those who have chosen to be part of Yougov sample and we can safely assume are more active.
This is probably a reasonable account of SNP activists but I would expect the wider membership might not have these views.
YouGov defended its methodology, arguing it is standard practice in researching “niche groups” to offer unweighted data and party members tend, by definition, to have very similar views to each other. They also said that uniformity was underlined by every age bracket in their poll showing very similar views on Brexit.
The House of Commons library recently published a recent briefing paper on “Brexit Unknowns” (pdf). These are what Donald Rumsfeld would call the “known unknowns” - the thing we know we don’t know about Brexit (as opposed to the “unknown unknowns”). I haven’t read it yet, but their papers are always good, so I’m sure this one is too.
Here’s a table from the paper summarising the state of play.
Updated
Hinds defends education department's use of statistics
Damian Hinds, the education secretary, has responded to Sir David Norgrove, the UK Statistics Authority chairman, with an open letter (pdf). In it he defends his department’s use of statistics in the three instances complained of (see 2.16pm) and says he wants the DfE’s figures to be “factually accurate and used in the right context”.
Education Sec @DamianHinds response to "serious concerns" of Statistics Authority 1/2 re figures on school spending pic.twitter.com/8zHMeNjjYG
— norman smith (@BBCNormanS) October 8, 2018
Education Sec @DamianHinds response 2/2 to Statistics Authority pic.twitter.com/EhaBmxRMCO
— norman smith (@BBCNormanS) October 8, 2018
Oh dear. I fear we may be heading for another breakdown in the Brexit talks. According to the Telegraph’s James Crisp, Jean-Claude Juncker, the European commission president, may have been mocking the prime minister’s dancing skills.
Is this @JunckerEU mocking @theresa_may 's Abba dance at a speech to the Committee of the Regions?
— James Crisp (@JamesCrisp6) October 8, 2018
I am saying yes. What say you @MargSchinas or @Mina_Andreeva ? pic.twitter.com/qyzHddY3oJ
All quite innocuous, you might think. But after Donald Tusk, the European council president, posted a picture of Theresa May on Instagram with a pointed but light-hearted caption referencing the UK’s supposed predilection for cherry picking, some Tory Brexiters treated it as a gross insult.
The education department's three latest cases of statistics misuse
In his letter to Damian Hinds, the education secretary, Sir David Norgrove, the UK Statistics Authority chairman, cites three recent examples of the education department putting out false or misleading figures. (See 1.55pm.)
Here is the first.
Last week, the minister of state for school standards [Nick Gibb] wrote that, in an international survey of reading abilities of nine-year-olds, England “leapfrogged up the rankings last year, after decades of falling standards, going from 19th out of 50 countries to 8th.”This is not correct. Figures published last year show the increase was from 10th place in 2011 to 8th place in 2016.
Here is the second.
My attention has also been drawn to a recent tweet and blog issued by the department regarding education funding. As the authority’s director general for regulation has noted in a letter to the department today, figures were presented in such a way as to misrepresent changes in school funding. In the tweet, school spending figures were exaggerated by using a truncated axis, and by not adjusting for per pupil spend. In the blog about government funding of schools (which I note your department has now updated), an international comparison of spend which included a wide range of education expenditure unrelated to publicly funded schools was used, rather than a comparison of school spending alone. The result was to give a more favourable picture. Yet the context would clearly lead readers to expect that the figures referred to spending on schools.
And here is the third.
The shadow secretary of state for education [Angela Rayner] has written to express concerns about your use of a figure that appears to show a substantial increase in the number of children in high performing schools, as judged by OFSTED. While accurate as far as it goes, this figure does not give a full picture. It should be set in the context of increasing pupil numbers, changes to the inspection framework and some inspections that are now long in the past, as an earlier letter to the department from the Office of Statistics Regulation pointed out.
In his letter Norgrove says these cases follow four other instances in the last year when the authority wrote to the department with concerns about its presentation of data. “I regret that the department does not yet appear to have resolved issues with its use of statistics,” Norgrove says.
Sturgeon says second independence referendum 'still possible' before 2021
Nicola Sturgeon has said she believes a second independence vote is “still possible” before the current Scottish parliamentary term ends in 2021, as she continued her round of TV interviews at Scottish National party conference in Glasgow.
She told ITV Borders:
I would like there to be a second independence referendum yesterday; failing yesterday, tomorrow but it’s not just down to what I want. It’s down to what’s in the best interests of the country as a whole. There’s a mandate for one in this parliament, by definition.
WATCH: @NicolaSturgeon tells @petermacmahon it's possible #indyref2 will happen before the next Scottish Parliament election in 2021. #SNP18 pic.twitter.com/jQlG5Ao9HO
— Representing Border (@ITVBorderRB) October 8, 2018
Interviewed by STV, Sturgeon again refused to be drawn on the precise timing of a fresh independence referendum, sticking her stance that no decision about whether to hold a second vote and when could be made until the Brexit negotiations were complete.
After stealing headlines in the last 24-hours by saying the SNP would vote for a second Brexit referendum, she also confirmed she was not “the most enthusiastic advocate” of another one.
She told STV she would know when and if to call a fresh independence vote:
When I know the outcome of this phase of the negotiations, whether it’s no deal, whether it’s blind deal, whether it’s a bad deal, I will set out at that point my views on an independence referendum.
Lunchtime summary
- Blackford has also threatened that the SNP will cause “maximum disruption” for the government in the Commons if Scotland gets treated with contempt. As the Herald reports, he told the conference:
Thousands of people joined us the day that the SNP walked out of Westminster to show the prime minister we will not have our parliament, our people, our country disrespected.
Scotland will not be treated as a second class nation. We must act to protect our parliament and Scotland’s voice.
In Westminster, your SNP MPs will do all the we can to protect devolution. Let those in Westminster hear this.
If contempt continues to be shown to the people of Scotland and to our parliament, SNP MPs will not hesitate in causing maximum disruption to the Tory government’s agenda when and where Scotland needs us to.
- Nicola Sturgeon, the SNP leader and Scottish first minister, has said that any backstop option keeping Northern Ireland in the single market should be available to Scotland too. In an interview with Sky News she said:
If we are looking down the road to a situation where Belfast is still in the single market, and Glasgow is not, then any responsible first minister of Scotland is going to say ‘that’s a big worry for us’.
So it just underlines this notion that however it happens over the next few years, whether it’s through a differential relationship with Scotland with the EU, or whether it’s around Scotland looking again at becoming independent and securing its relationship with the single market that way, it will become very important for us to find a way of doing it.
Sky’s Faisal Islam has more details.
The First Minister tells me she is “not going to stand in the way of NI having a solution to its issues” but that a NIO-only backstop raises “profound concerns on my part” for the competitiveness of Scotland and losing investment to Northern Ireland
— Faisal Islam (@faisalislam) October 8, 2018
I suggested to FM that surely that would imply checks on the England-Scotland border...
— Faisal Islam (@faisalislam) October 8, 2018
She said “I don’t want checks ... lets wait and see how this all plays out” pic.twitter.com/NMnyvDPbQ2
- The UK Statistics Authority has reprimanded the Department for Education for publishing misleading statistics. In a public letter (pdf) to Damian Hinds, the education secretary, Sir David Norgrove, the authority’s chairman, cited three examples of the department putting out false or misleading statistics and asked for an assurance that it would stop doing this in future. He said:
I am sure you share my concerns that instances such as these do not help to promote trust and confidence in official data, and indeed risk undermining them.
I seek your reassurance that the Department remains committed to the principles and practices defined in the statutory code of practice for statistics. In particular, I urge the department to involve analysts closely in the development of its communications, to ensure that data are properly presented in a way that does not mislead.
- The home secretary, Sajid Javid, decided to cooperate with US authorities in the prosecution of two alleged Islamic State fighters, without assurances they would not face the death penalty, in order to avoid “political outrage” in the Trump administration, the high court has been told. As Owen Bowcott reports, the allegation came as the lord chief justice, Lord Burnett of Maldon, and Mr Justice Garnham heard an application on behalf of the mother of El Shafee Elsheikh over the legality of the Home Office’s agreement to provide evidence to US prosecutors.
Tony Connelly, RTE’s Europe editor, has also posted a good thread on where we are in the Brexit talks. It starts here.
Here's a brief thread on where we're at with Brexit:
— Tony Connelly (@tconnellyRTE) October 8, 2018
My understanding is that @MichelBarnier will NOT produce a draft on the Political Declaration on Wed as had been expected. At the very most it'll be an annotated paper (headings, no text) and even then it won't be adopted Wed
SNP members at the party conference in Glasgow have backed a resolution urging the UK government to reunite child refugees with their families in Britain. As the SNP explain in a news release:
Party delegates have supported a resolution which supports UK government steps to support a SNP bill that will; expand the definition of family member as currently only spouses and children under the age of 18 are allowed to join their family in the UK; give refugee children the right to be reunited with their parents as under current reunion rules children cannot sponsor their parents to come to the UK leaving them alone; reintroduce legal aid for refugee family applications.
The bill, proposed by the SNP MP Angus MacNeil, has had a second reading in the Commons, but it does not have government backing which means its chances of becoming law are minimal.
Commenting on today’s conference vote, MacNeil said:
The bill quite simply brings the UK into line with most of the rest of Europe to allow child refugees the same rights as adults and provides legal aid which is already provided for in Scotland.
Some opponents of the bill say that the bill will cause people to send children as anchors ahead of their parents but if that was true then there would be no children coming at the moment and those here for legal aid would all be arriving in Scotland which is not the case given that legal aid makes their already difficult lives easier an it’s the least we can do in this dreadful situation.
In supporting the resolution before them today, conference delegates have reaffirmed the willingness of the SNP to do all we can in support of those families torn apart by war and persecution.
According to a Sky News analysis, the UK economy has recovered less 10 years after the 2008 financial crash than the US economy recovered over the same period of time after the (much deeper) great depression of 1929. Peter Dowd, the shadow chief secretary to the Treasury, said these figures show the “utter failure of Tory austerity”.
Downing Street lobby briefing - Summary
Here are the main points from the Number 10 lobby briefing.
- Downing Street said there would have to be “movement” from the EU side in the Brexit talks if there is going to be an agreement. The prime minister’s spokesman also suggested that people should not read too much into the optimistic comments about the prospect of there being a deal coming from Brussels at the end of last week. (See 11.44am.)
- The spokesman played down the prospects of a deal being reached at the EU summit next Thursday. Asked if a deal was possible by then, the spokesman just said the government was working for a deal this autumn. The UK government and the EU have both been working on the basis that the unofficial deadline for a deal is mid-November, when an emergency summit is provisionally scheduled, but at the weekend there were some claims that a deal by the end of next week might be possible.
- The spokesman said the UK wanted to ensure that the future framework declaration, the document sitting alongside the withdrawal agreement setting out the broad terms of a future UK-EU trade relationship, would have to be “precise”. At one point David Davis, the then Brexit secretary, said the bulk of the future trade deal would be agreed alongside the withdrawal agreement. But now there are reports that the future framework declaration may run to just 20 pages or so. The spokesman would not be drawn on how long it would have to be, but he repeatedly said it would have to be “precise”. He explained:
We have said that when MPs take part in the meaningful vote, they must be able to do so on an informed basis.
- The spokesman refused to confirm reports that Dominic Raab, the Brexit secretary, is due to go to Brussels this week for talks with the EU’s chief brexit negotiator, Michel Barnier. That does not necessarily mean Raab isn’t going; it just means that No 10 is not willing to confirm that now, in case there’s a hitch or in case that suggests over-confidence.
- The spokesman would not say when the government would publish its revised plans for the Irish backstop. (Last week David Lidington, the Cabinet Office minister, said they were due “very soon”.)
- The spokesman would not comment on reports that Brexit is not on the agenda for tomorrow’s cabinet meeting. He said he did not comment on the cabinet’s agenda in advance.
- The spokesman said that Theresa May is not planning to make a statement to MPs about the informal EU summit in Salzburg when the Commons returns tomorrow.
And here are some lines on non-Brexit stories.
- The spokesman claimed that benefit claimants would not lose out when transferred onto universal credit. On Saturday the Times (paywall) ran a story claiming cabinet ministers have been told millions of families will lose hundreds of pounds a month when they migrate to the new system. Asked about this, the spokesman said:
We are absolutely committed to ensuring people get the help they need while making the welfare system fair for those who pay for it and those who benefit from it. We are spending around £3bn on transitional protections to ensure that no one loses out if they moved on to universal credit. This will ensure that no family receives less money than they do today as part of the managed migration process.
But the Times story said:
Ministers are becoming increasingly alarmed about the rollout of universal credit after Esther McVey, the work and pensions secretary, confirmed privately to colleagues that millions of families would lose £200 a month under the new system.
Ms McVey told cabinet colleagues that half of lone parents and about two thirds of working-age couples with children would lose the equivalent of £2,400 a year.
The revelation will add to Tory angst about universal credit, which is being introduced in stages nationwide to replace existing benefits including tax credits and housing benefit.
The Treasury is expected to publish a consultation in the next few weeks about giving “breathing space” to people on low incomes who are in debt, partly as a result of universal credit.
The difference between the Times’ claims and the Number 10 line may be explained by different definitions of what “lose out” means. Universal credit, a new benefit replacing six existing benefits, includes transitional protection meaning that, as people move over to UC, the amount they get will not go down. But that protection is not indefinite, meaning that if claimants’ circumstances change, they could end up getting less than they otherwise would have done, and new claimants getting UC may be getting less then they would have done under the old system.
- The spokesman said that the allegation that a dissident Saudi journalist was murdered inside the Saudi consulate in Istanbul was “extremely serious” and that the government was working urgently to establish the facts, including with the government of Saudi Arabia.
Updated
Liam Fox, the international trade secretary, has welcomed the Japanese prime minister’s comment in a Financial Times interview (see 10.12am) that the UK would be welcome to join the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) after Brexit.
It was a pleasure to meet Prime Minister @AbeShinzo in Tokyo in July. Delighted to see his encouragement for UK joining CPTPP in @FT today. Have your say in our consultation:https://t.co/x1bbiV0Lm4 pic.twitter.com/ITo5tmUSRw
— Dr Liam Fox MP (@LiamFox) October 8, 2018
EU still has to move if there is going to be Brexit deal, says Downing Street
I’m just back from the Number 10 lobby briefing. And, after Jean-Claude Juncker, the European commission president, talking up the prospects of a Brexit deal being reached at the end of last week, this morning Downing Street is adopting a more downbeat note. The prime minister’s spokesman told reporters:
We have always said that we are working hard for a deal this autumn, and that continues at pace.
It is worth me pointing out that there’s a difference between people talking optimistically about a deal and a deal, including both a withdrawal agreement and the future framework, actually being agreed. There remain big issues to work through and, as the PM has said, this will require movement on the EU side.
I will just make that point again that there can be no withdrawal agreement without a precise future framework.
It is hard to be sure quite how much to read into this. During any complex negotiation of this kind, there is always “hopes for a deal rise/hopes for a deal fall” see-saw in the reporting as both sides manage expectations. If you’re a foreign exchange trader, I wouldn’t quite dump sterling quite yet. But the spokesman did make it very clear that the government does not expect the entire deal to be finalised next week, and his words did serve as a reality check to anyone thinking, on the basis of Juncker’s comments, that it’s all done and dusted.
I will post a full summary of the briefing shortly.
Updated
SNP will look to cause 'maximum disruption' to government's agenda at Westminster, Blackford says
Ian Blackford also said the SNP would cause “maximum disruption” at Westminster, the BBC’s Philip Sim reports.
Ian Blackford says SNP MPs will look to cause “maximum disruption to the Tory government’s agenda” in parliament. He says the party is “the only effective opposition at Westminster” #snp18
— Philip Sim (@BBCPhilipSim) October 8, 2018
That’s interesting, if the SNP does act on this threat. In June Blackford tried to hold up PMQs by demanding a vote on the Commons sitting in private half way through the exchanges. But John Bercow, the Speaker, did not allow the vote, and Blackford ended up being suspended. SNP MPs walked out in sympathy. The protest attracted a lot of coverage, but did not disrupt government business, and since then the SNP have not tried anything similar.
I’m off to the Number 10 lobby briefing now. I will post again after 11.30am.
According to the Herald’s Tom Gordon, Ian Blackford also joined the long list of those people who have said breakfast instead of Brexit.
"They didn't vote for breakfast," SNP Westminster leader Ian Blackford tells conference
— Tom Gordon (@HTScotPol) October 8, 2018
Ian Blackford, the SNP leader at Westminster, has been speaking at the party conference in Glasgow. According to the extracts from the speech released by the party, he said the SNP would not be complicit in a “blind” Brexit (meaning a deal so vague that it is not clear what the future trade relationship will look like). He told delegates:
The SNP will not sit back and allow Scotland to be dragged out of the single market and customs union against its will. We will not be complicit in a blind - or a no deal Brexit.
The Tories are on a reckless mission to trash our economy. Their self-destructive policies on Brexit, austerity and immigration threaten serious and lasting harm.
An extreme Brexit threatens £2,300 lost from every person in Scotland; 80,000 Scottish jobs destroyed; the door shut to talented EU workers and our economy smaller, weaker and poorer.
The people of Scotland didn’t vote for this Tory government, they didn’t vote to have a referendum on leaving the EU, they didn’t vote for Brexit, they didn’t vote for a hard Brexit and they certainly didn’t vote to come crashing out of the EU with no deal.
Time and time again, the SNP and others have fought to ensure that Scotland’s remain vote is respected in the EU negotiations – but the Tory Cabinet is completely in thrall to the hardline Brexiteers who could not care less about jobs, living standards and public services in Scotland.
Yesterday the Sunday Times (paywall) carried a story saying some Tory Brexiters in the European Research Group are so opposed to Theresa May’s Chequers plan that they have been talking about voting down the budget.
This seems to have prompted Douglas Carswell, the former Tory MP who was so pro-Brexit he defected to Ukip, to criticise its tactics.
The more I hear about the tactics of the ERG, the more convinced I am that Vote Leave MPs need be prepared to back a deal, however imperfect. They’ve had two years to sort out any leadership issues - and consistently failed to. Make do and mend tactics are now the consequence https://t.co/W82kF0tpIH
— Douglas Carswell (@DouglasCarswell) October 7, 2018
Photograph: Ken Jack - Corbis/Corbis via Getty Images
Greg Hands, the former international trade minister, has welcomed the news that the Japanese prime minister has said the UK will be welcome to join the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) after Brexit.
Exciting news as Japan - now the leading country in world’s largest trade deal CPTPP - would welcome UK joining it. Today’s FT. pic.twitter.com/ctyTMU0Jcs
— Greg Hands (@GregHands) October 8, 2018
Steve Peers, a trade law professor, points out that this is less significant than it sounds.
Again: the EU already has a free trade deal or is negotiating one with 9 of the 11 (CP)TPP States, including Japan. https://t.co/9hon3ivmE0
— Steve Peers (@StevePeers) October 8, 2018
We’ve got two other live blogs on the go today worth keeping an eye on.
Matthew Taylor and other colleagues have been covering reaction to the new IPCC report on climate change here.
And Graeme Wearden is covering the announcement of the winner of the Nobel prize for economics.
The BBC’s Europe editor, Katya Adler, has posted a good round-up of where we are in the Brexit process in a Twitter thread. It starts here.
1) Get ready for a big #Brexit week this week - in Brussels and U.K.
— katya adler (@BBCkatyaadler) October 8, 2018
Labour and Tory mayors unite to demand they 'take back control' of regional funds after Brexit
“Take back control”, the Vote Leave rallying cry, was one of the most effective political slogans in recent times. And today it has been appropriated by four metro mayors from the North of England, three Labour and one Tory, who have united to demand that they get control of the regional funding promised by the government to replace EU structural funds after Brexit.
EU structural funds are spent on deprived areas and, taking into account UK government match funding, they have been worth around £2.4bn a year to the UK. It their 2017 manifesto the Tories promised to replace it after Brexit with a shared prosperity fund (SPF), but the government has yet to give details of how the SPF will work.
The four mayors who want to “take back control” are Labour’s Andy Burnham (Greater Manchester), Steve Rotheram (Liverpool City region) and Dan Jarvis (Sheffied City region) and the Conservative Ben Houchen (Tees Valley). In a joint statement released this morning they say:
More than two years since the Brexit referendum, the defining mantra of that campaign – to take back control – looms large as we approach March 2019. If that phrase is to mean anything, it must mean substantial devolution of power and resources out of Westminster to the English regions.
The UK’s employment rate has recently hit record highs and many of our city centres are thriving hubs of commerce and culture. But some places remain locked out of this success story.
This underlines the need for areas to be given more control of the tools to unlock inclusive economic growth in their communities. Ministers have promised a consultation on the shared prosperity fund this year and this is becoming urgent if we are not to be left with a damaging gap between the ending of EU structural funds and the setting up of the shared prosperity fund – a gap which would lead to the closure of vital economic programmes and investments.
To be honest, given all Theresa May’s other Brexit worries, what happens to the SPF probably barely registers with her as an issue. We are in a crucial fortnight for the talks process, as Dan Sabbagh explains in our overnight story.
Parliament does not return until tomorrow. The SNP is holding its conference in Glasgow. I normally go, but given how much Brexit news is around this morning, it made more sense to stay in London where we will get a briefing from Number 10 later this morning. But I will be keeping an eye on conference proceedings.
Here is the agenda for the day.
10.30am: Ian Blackford, the SNP leader at Westminster, speaks at the SNP conference. Other speakers included Jeane Freeman, the Scottish health secretary at 2pm, Keith Brown, the SNP’s deputy leader Keith Brown (or depute leader, as the SNP call him) at 3.15pm, and John Swinney, the deputy first minister, at 4.15pm.
11am: Downing Street lobby briefing.
As usual, I will also be covering breaking political news as it happens, as well as bringing you the best reaction, comment and analysis from the web. I plan to post a summary at lunchtime and another when I wrap up, probably between 5pm and 6pm.
Here is the Politico Europe round-up of this morning’s political news. And here is the PoliticsHome list of today’s top 10 must-reads.
If you want to follow me or contact me on Twitter, I’m on @AndrewSparrow.
I try to monitor the comments BTL but normally I find it impossible to read them all. If you have a direct question, do include “Andrew” in it somewhere and I’m more likely to find it. I do try to answer direct questions, although sometimes I miss them or don’t have time.
If you want to attract my attention quickly, it is probably better to use Twitter.
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