Last week’s budget has failed to deliver an instant political breakthrough for the Turnbull government, or woo disaffected voters, although individual measures have rated a clear thumbs up, according to the latest Guardian Essential poll.
Consistent with polling undertaken by Newspoll, ReachTel and Ipsos, voting intentions post-budget have remained fixed, and Labor remains well ahead of the government on the two-party-preferred measure, 54% to 46%.
The two-party-preferred result in the Guardian Essential survey is the same as the week before the budget.
Voters have also expressed some default cynicism about the budget. A slim majority (51%) agreed with the statement the budget was more about improving the government’s popularity than improving the economy.
Only 39% of the survey agreed with the statement: “This was the budget Australia needs at this time.” Men were more likely to agree with that statement than women, and older people were more likely to agree with it than young people.
Voters also continued to believe the budget was better for well-off Australians and businesses than people on lower incomes – perceptions that appeared rapid set before the budget was handed down.
But the latest survey has some hopeful news for the Turnbull government, which has been behind in the polls since last year’s federal election. Overall, more people in the survey of 1,796 voters approved of the budget (41%) than disapproved (33%).
While the budget was badged in many quarters as a “Labor-lite” outing that would rattle elements of the conservative base, Liberal/National voters also appear happy with last Tuesday’s economic statement – 66% supported it. Older Australians also gave it a tick.
But the government’s efforts to use the budget to deliver a quick political reset, and appeal to the cohort of disillusioned voters who say they intend to vote for an independent or a minor party, appear to have fallen flat.
Disapproval of the budget was higher among “other” party/independent voters (50% disapproval) than it was among ALP voters (45%).
Individual measures with an economic nationalist flavour outlined by Scott Morrison last Tuesday night were, however, very popular.
A levy to be imposed on vacant properties owned by foreign investors won 82% approval. A levy on businesses that hire foreign workers on permanent and temporary work visas also rated 71% approval.
Punitive welfare measures also got the tick from voters. Proposed payment reductions for jobseekers who fail to attend Centrelink appointments won 76% approval, as did a trial of drug testing for jobseekers receiving unemployment benefits (69% approval).
The proposed big bank tax, raising $6.2bn over four years, has infuriated the industry. The big banks have warned they cannot absorb the cost of the levy and have called for it to be extended to foreign banks.
But 66% of voters approved of the bank levy measure.
While the budget’s bank bashing has resonated, the government’s proposal to increase the Medicare levy by 0.5% to fund the national disability insurance scheme – the biggest revenue measure of the budget – has been less warmly welcomed.
Forty-nine per cent of the survey approved of the idea while 39% disapproved.
A majority of voters (56%) also felt that higher income earners should bear a greater share of the cost of funding the NDIS than lower income people – which is the proposition being advanced by Labor, the Greens and the Nick Xenophon Team.
The people most likely to express this view were Labor voters (69%), people earning between $78,000 and $104,000 a year (63%), and “other” party/independent voters (62%).
People favouring the budget approach were Liberal/National voters (45%), people aged 65 and over (35%) and people earning more than $104,000 a year (34%).
Voters were also asked which economic spokesman they trusted more to handle the economy. Twenty-six per cent trusted the treasurer and 22% trusted Labor’s Chris Bowen.
Fifty-two per cent did not know who they trusted more. Sixty-four of women said they did not know who they trusted more, compared with 40% of men.
Out on the hustings selling the budget on Monday, the prime minister claimed an early victory in the polls, telling the Sydney radio host John Laws voters had given the budget “a big tick of approval”.
He later told reporters in Sydney to resist the post-budget race call. “Polls are not news,” Malcolm Turnbull said.
Asked about a poll indicating that 45% of people felt worse off after the budget, Turnbull said: “Polls are no substitute for – there are lots of polls.”
“Australian journalists are interested in polls. The Australian people are interested in what the budget means for them.
“What you have seen in those polls – that you are more interested in than me – what you have seen is strong support for the budget measures, strong support for them.
“But the budget is a fair budget, it is a responsible budget and it is a budget that is focused and directed, every element of it, to ensuring that we maintain strong economic growth.”
