Labor did very poorly in Western Australia in 2013, retaining only three seats, with the Liberals winning the remaining 12. The ALP managed less than 42% of the vote after preferences. After this rock-bottom result, WA Labor appears to be on track to make significant gains in 2016.
Labor also did poorly in the Senate race in Western Australia. On the first count, Labor’s second candidate Louise Pratt barely won her seat, and then lost it on the recount. At the ensuing special election, Labor was reduced to only one Senate seat out of six.
That result confirmed a long-term trend in Western Australia away from Labor. It won nine out of 13 lower house seats in the state in 1984 and 1987, but support has dropped steadily since the early 1990s. Labor even lost ground in Western Australia in 2007, despite Kevin Rudd’s thumping victory nationally.
Labor achieved a similarly poor result in the 2013 state election, although polls now give it a significant lead, with the next state election due in March.
This shift can also be seen in the federal polling. After polling only 41.7% after preferences in 2013, Labor is now neck and neck with the Coalition after preferences.
The latest Ipsos, Morgan and Newspoll state breakdowns put the Liberals at 51% after preferences, but a number of other Ipsos polls have put Labor in the lead. The BludgerTrack average puts Labor on 49.4% after preferences: a swing of 7.7% since the last election.
A swing of that size would endanger the Liberal seats of Cowan, Hasluck, Burt and Swan.
Burt is a new seat on the south-eastern fringe of Perth, taking in Armadale, Canning Vale, Gosnells and surrounding areas. The seat took in parts of a number of electorates, with the largest part coming from Canning. The Liberals hold the seat with a notional margin of 6.1%.
Labor’s candidate is Matt Keogh, who polled well in the area at the 2015 Canning byelection. Last week’s Newspoll – the only one taken in Burt so far – put him in the lead on 52% after preferences. Keogh will benefit from not having to face an incumbent Liberal MP.
Cowan is a northern Perth seat held by Liberal MP Luke Simpkins on a 4.5% margin.
Simpkins first contested the seat in 2004, losing to popular Labor MP Graham Edwards, but increasing the Liberal vote. Simpkins won in 2007 after Edwards retired, and has gained a swing at four consecutive elections. The recent redistribution drew Cowan into less Liberal-friendly areas, cutting Simpkins’s margin.
Two ReachTel polls have been published from Cowan, both showing a very close race. A 10 May poll commissioned by United Voice put Labor’s Anne Aly ahead with 51% after preferences, while a Fairfax-commissioned poll on 9 June had the parties tied on 50%.
Hasluck is in eastern Perth and is held by Liberal MP Ken Wyatt on a 6% margin. Wyatt won the seat from Labor in 2010. A ReachTel poll of the seat last week put Wyatt in the lead, with 53% after preferences.
Swan is in the inner south of Perth, held by Liberal MP Steve Irons with a 7.3% margin. Irons has held the seat since winning it from Labor in 2007.
We haven’t yet seen any polling out of Swan, but if statewide polls play out, the seat could be very close.
Western Australia will also have a very interesting Senate race. The Liberals hold six Senate seats, Labor three, the Greens two and Palmer United party one. Polling suggests Labor can win a fourth seat (which would go to Louise Pratt, who lost her seat in 2014). It also appears likely the Greens will retain their two seats.
The Liberals should retain at least five of their six seats, but will find it hard to keep all six. The last seat could go to them, Labor or a minor party.
The PUP’s Dio Wang is running again, but his party is polling very poorly, and he has had a relatively low profile over his two years in the Senate. The WA Nationals have often taken a significant vote share and could be a contender. The Nick Xenophon Team’s national polling suggests they could have chance too, and there is an outside chance that the third Green could be elected, if the party’s vote can reach as high as their best polls.
