The Victorian treasurer says the state will record a surplus $1bn smaller than forecast just months ago in exchange for providing families with cost-of-living relief, as she vowed the budget won’t include any new taxes.
Jaclyn Symes has announced that Tuesday’s budget will include a $600m projected operating surplus for 2025-26 – Victoria’s first since the pandemic. This figure is $1bn shy of the estimated surplus touted in December’s mid-year budget update.
Symes said this was a deliberate decision, as the government has instead provided cost-of-living relief to Victorians.
“We could have elected to have a larger surplus for tomorrow’s budget. But what we did is choose to back Victorians,” Symes told reporters on Monday.
“We know that cost of living, frontline services – these are the priorities that Victorians expect a Labor government to get behind. So we are investing in health, mental health, education, transport – all of the things that Victorians want.
“We also are offering practical cost-of-living measures, as well as delivering a surplus, which is what we promised to do in 2020.”
The government has already announced several measures contained in Tuesday’s budget, including plans to make public transport completely free for Victorians under the age of 18, and free on weekends for seniors. But Symes said there would be further cost-of-living relief.
She said the state would also record operating surpluses of $1.9bn in 2026-27 and $2.4bn in 2027-28, which are an improvement from December’s forecasts of $1.7bn and $2b, respectively.
Net debt as a share of the economy is also forecast to peak in 2026-27, before it is expected to fall over the following years, Symes said.
But she refused to provide a figure for that peak – in December debt was forecast to hit $168.5bn this financial year and climb to $187.3bn by 2027–28.
“The [net debt] aggregates will be revealed tomorrow. They will not start with a two,” Symes said, when asked if debt would reach $200bn.
She said her first budget was shaped by “responsible decisions” such as returning infrastructure spending to “pre-pandemic levels” and cutting public sector staff. The latter follows interim recommendations of a review into the sector by Helen Silver, a former secretary of the Department of Premier and Cabinet, announced in February.
“We are anticipating [a] several thousand reduction in VPS staff,” Symes said on Monday.
“We will undertake an empathetic response to the fact that there will be people who will no longer have a role in the public sector.
“It will not be exactly evident about the jobs that will go tomorrow, because we want to make sure that we’re having those discussions with department secretaries.”
Silver will provide a final report in June, which Symes said would include changes to the number of entities run by the government.
“We have more entities than I think we need. Helen agrees,” she said.
Symes also confirmed there would be no new or increased taxes in the budget after consultation with industry.
“The message I heard loud and clear from the business sector … was no more taxes,” she said.
“I can confirm in tomorrow’s budget there will be no new taxes … I have not changed any of the tax settings for tomorrow’s budget.”
