Key Labor policy positions on boat turnbacks, the China free trade agreement and party democratisation hang in the balance ahead of the party’s conference this weekend, with factional numbers closer than at any time in the past 20 years.
Many of the debates remain too close to call because the traditional left-right faction numbers are so fine. Furthermore, unlike in past years, delegates are not sure the factional leaders will be able to bind their members to vote along factional lines, given calls for greater democratisation.
One of the key debates pushed by the left will be about removing a measure of factional power to allow ordinary party members to have a say in preselecting Senate candidates and delegates for federal conferences.
The left and right factions will gather for their caucuses on Thursday. The conference opens in Melbourne on Friday and extends over the weekend.
On Tuesday night, the right abandoned a controversial push to secure three votes from the Young Labor delegation. The right has now agreed that the left can take one of the three youth wing positions. After the resolution of that dispute the left takes 196 votes into the conference, with the right on 197.
There are four non-aligned delegates. The debate on changing party rules requires a statutory majority of 199 votes. The left push is for 50% grassroots ballots – mirroring the proportion now in place to select Labor’s federal leader.
The right does not support democratisation at a threshold of 50%. Given the Labor leader Bill Shorten nominally supports party democratisation but in highly non-specific ways, Shorten’s right faction may counter the left push with a lower threshold on conference eve.
The right has also been moving assiduously over recent days to marshal trade union support to defeat a push by the left to prohibit boat turnbacks in the party’s asylum platform.
Right sources are expressing cautious optimism that the numbers will be there to see off the left on turnbacks, but several party insiders say it is still too close to call.
Regardless of behind-the-scenes efforts to enforce party discipline, turnbacks are a red line issue for many conference delegates.
Labor’s president Mark Butler acknowledged the previous Labor government’s difficulties on asylum seeker policy, but said he did not want to pre-empt the debate on turnbacks.
“I think there have been concerns expressed going back to our time in government about ensuring safety at sea in all of these operations, including the possibility of turnbacks, safety at sea not only for asylum seekers but also importantly for Australian personnel. The impact of these sort of policies and operations on our relationship with Indonesia has been something we’ve talked about consistently for some years, so this is a serious debate.”
Also up for debate is a motion on emission reduction targets, ahead of the United Nations climate talks in Paris later this year.
The Abbott government has delayed announcing its final decision on the post-2020 targets Australia it will take to Paris, though environment minister Greg Hunt has said it would be more ambitious than the current commitment, which is 5% on 2000 levels by 2020.
The Labor Environment Action Network (Lean) is taking a motion for Labor to adopt the targets set by the Climate Change Authority (CCA), which said Australia needed to cut carbon emissions by 30% by 2025 and sign up to further cuts of 40-60% by 2030 to catch up with other countries.
Lean is also pushing for more ambitious renewable targets, and on Wednesday Shorten announced the conference would debate a policy under which half of Australia’s large-scale energy production would be from renewable sources by 2030.
While Shorten is sure to win support for the new 50% renewable targets motion, Labor insiders said the motion supporting CCA emissions targets was less likely to succeed, given the government is yet to reveal its target.
The China free trade agreement (Chafta), recently signed by trade minister Andrew Robb, is also bound to create heated debate. The Chafta requires that Australia will not “impose or maintain any limitations on the total number of visas to be granted” to China or “require labour market testing, economic testing or other procedures of similar effect as a condition for temporary entry”.
The labour provisions, which overturn current labour market testing for overseas workers, have been fiercely opposed by the union movement and Shorten has promised to “do what we can in parliament”.
The Chafta has been signed, but legislation is required to enable some elements of it. Other controversial elements such as the Investor State Dispute Settlement (ISDS) do not require legislation.
“In the parliament, Labor will fight to retain labour market testing, so employers need to show they cannot find suitable local workers before they turn to temporary migration for projects greater than $150m,” Shorten said.
“And we will fight to maintain the integrity of Australia’s occupational skills and safety regulations. We will do all we can in the parliament before the enabling legislation is passed.”
Shorten will address the Labor conference on Friday morning.
