This is the online version of our daily newsletter, The Morning Win. Subscribe to get irreverent and incisive sports stories, delivered to your mailbox every morning. Charles Curtis is filling in for Andy Nesbitt.
I was taking a stroll around the NFL MVP odds this morning as I sometimes do, and a thought crossed my brain: Is Tom Brady REALLY the guy to bet on right now?
The answer, for NOW? Yes. He’s tops in yards, first in yards per game, first in touchdown passes, seventh in completion percentage, second in QBR. And the MVP narrative is tidy: He’s doing all this at 44 years old (!!!!!!!) and has the Bucs in position to perhaps grab the top seed in the NFC.
But here’s the thing. His odds, per Tipico, are +140. Not terrible, but there’s not a ton of value there.
Which brings me to my next thought — who’s the guy with lower odds who could make a case over the final five weeks? Is it Josh Allen? No. Aaron Rodgers? Interesting but I don’t think so.
That answer is Kyler Murray — +650, if you’re counting.
The narrative for him is intriguing. The Cards are the best team in football right now — they’re No. 1 in Charles McDonald’s latest power rankings, and rightfully so at 10-2. Sure, they won two games without him, but they lost a stinker to the Panthers in Week 10. If he can win all five of their last contests, three of which are against tough opponents — vs. Rams, vs. Colts, at Cowboys — the case could be there.
Then, we get to the stats: Fourth in QBR, first in completion percentage, first in average yards per completion, and there’s the rushing ability that we saw explode last year coming back — he scored twice on the ground in the win over the Bears.
Can a star miss three games and still win MVP? I think so. It’s a bit of a longshot … but betting on favorites is boring. Five wins with explosive games? It’ll make this race interesting.
Quick hits: Get well soon, Paige Bueckers … An alley-oop NHL goal?! — Aww, J. Lo and Ben Affleck … and more.
— UConn star Paige Bueckers has a rare knee injury, which will keep her out for some time but not the full season. Mike Sykes breaks down what exactly a tibial plateau fracture is.
— An alley-oop … in hockey? Seriously, watch this sick Trevor Zegras pass for a goal!
— Jennifer Lopez and Ben Affleck were very adorable at Lakers-Celtics.
— Matthew Slater’s speech for the Patriots’ locker room after Monday’s win was awesome.
— A Patriots-Buccaneers Super Bowl would be epic, and that’s what ESPN’s football power index has at the moment.
