Before the engines fire and the green flag waves on Sunday at Kansas Speedway, it’s worth taking a look at the drivers most capable of reaching Victory Lane. Hint: One of them is the polesitter, 2021 NASCAR Cup Series champion Kyle Larson.
Here are the top five contenders, in descending order from least to most likely to prevail.
5. Bubba Wallace
23XI Racing has captured two of the last five NASCAR Cup Series races at Kansas Speedway, with Bubba Wallace (fall 2022) and Tyler Reddick (fall 2023) winning one apiece.
Wallace gets the nod over Reddick here, though, because Reddick hasn’t performed as well as some expected in 2025. Wallace, on the other hand, is on pace to record his best career points finish (eighth) and has been overall impressive.
For Wallace, Kansas is where he’s earned one of his two career NASCAR Cup Series triumphs, so the 1.5-mile track certainly holds a special place in his heart.
WINNER WINNER! @BubbaWallace wins the #NASCAR Cup Series race at @kansasspeedway! #TeamToyota pic.twitter.com/4gck3oE7z2
— Toyota Racing (@ToyotaRacing) September 11, 2022
4. Ross Chastain
Like Bubba Wallace, Ross Chastain might seem like an underdog pick to emerge victorious at Kansas Speedway.
But Chastain was the last driver to do just that, coming out ahead when the NASCAR Cup Series convened here for the second time last season.
Chastain won convincingly in his No. 1 Trackhouse Racing Chevy, leading 52 of 267 laps. With a repeat performance this weekend, he would punch his ticket into the 2025 NASCAR Cup Series playoffs.
3. Joey Logano
Fresh off a playoff-clinching win last Sunday at Texas Motor Speedway, Joey Logano aims to use that momentum to his full advantage at Kansas.
Huge WIN in Texas! 🏁🏆🤠@Team_Penske AAA @FordPerformance @CocaColaRacing #CokePartner pic.twitter.com/h3FxiEltyR
— Joey Logano (@joeylogano) May 5, 2025
Winless in 2025 up until a week ago, the three-time and reigning NASCAR Cup Series champion is finally showing shades of his typical front-running self.
Logano is also a multi-race winner at Kansas, having wheeled his No. 22 Team Penske Ford to Victory Lane at the track on three occasions — all since 2014.
2. Denny Hamlin
With a pair of wins in the first 11 races of 2025, Denny Hamlin has undoubtedly been one of the season’s best drivers.
Hamlin also boasts quite a distinguished resume at Kansas, where four times he’s taken the checkered flag running P1 in his No. 11 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota. The veteran driver’s most recent Kansas celebration occurred just two years ago, in the spring of 2023.
Perhaps even more notable than Hamlin’s quartet of Kansas wins, though, is the fact that he’s been a paragon of consistency at the high-speed, high-banked track. How consistent has Hamlin been?
Well, he’s come home no worse than eighth in his last seven Kansas starts. And in six of those outings, he’s placed in the top five. Those are some pretty robust numbers. And they certainly bode well for him on Sunday.
1. Kyle Larson
While Kyle Larson’s overall body of work at Kansas Speedway can’t compare to Denny Hamlin’s, the driver of the No. 5 Hendrick Motorsports Chevy is the hands-down favorite this weekend.
How so?
First, Larson is a two-time Kansas winner and the defending race winner, having nipped Chris Buescher at the checkered flag in thrilling fashion by .001 seconds last May. That stands as the closest margin of victory in NASCAR history.
You’re looking at the NEW CLOSEST FINISH IN NASCAR CUP SERIES HISTORY.
Kyle Larson beats Chris Buescher by 0.001 seconds.
🎥 : NASCAR pic.twitter.com/nIDGbMqgur
— NASCAR on NBC (@NASCARonNBC) May 6, 2024
Larson’s win at Kansas just over a year ago was no fluke, however. He led 64 of 268 laps, second only to Hamlin. Also, Larson — who wins frequently — is typically at his best at the mile-and-a-half tracks. Kansas Speedway, of course, fits that description. In fact, since the debut of the Next Generation Cup Series car, Larson has led 1,395 laps on mile-and-a-halves. That’s more than double the number of laps that the No. 2 driver in this category has led.
Perhaps most importantly, though, Larson will start Sunday’s race from the pole. After leading Saturday’s qualifying session with a lap of 183.730 mph, Larson made no attempt to mask his confidence.
“The qualifying lap felt really good,” he said. “Thankfully, everything went great. My (car’s) balance felt really good. I felt like I hit my marks and came up to speed through (turns) 3 and 4 good. It was a perfect-feeling lap.”
