Prediction market traders on are increasingly betting that Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem will be out of President Donald Trump's administration before the end of 2026, a surge that comes as she faces intense blowback over her and her department's handling of the fatal shooting of Alex Pretti in Minneapolis, the second U.S. citizen to be killed by federal agents in the first month of the year.
Kalshi, a federally regulated event-contracts exchange, lists a slate of "yes or no" questions on political outcomes, including whether specific officials will leave their posts by a certain deadline. Kalshi's own "Trump Administration" widget for departures before 2027 shows Noem among the top names by implied probability, alongside Attorney General Pam Bondi and FBI Director Kash Patel.
On Polymarket the bet asking, "Who will be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet", has Noem among the top-priced names, with around a 43.3% implied likelihood that she will be the first to depart by the end of 2026. That pricing reflects significant trading volume and market interest, with more than $1.2 million in contracts traded on this market as of early January.
The betting spike follows the Jan. 24 killing of Pretti, a 37-year-old ICU VA nurse, during protests and street confrontations tied to federal immigration enforcement activity in Minneapolis. Administration officials, including Noem, portrayed Pretti as a dangerous aggressor, while footage from the incident directly contradicts those claims.
Bystander video undercuts key elements of that narrative, showing Pretti recording officers on his phone and not brandishing any weapon during the moments before he was shot. The Associated Press reported that a gun was later found at his waist and that he had a permit to carry it, but the footage did not show him threatening officers with it.
California Governor Gavin Newsom called for Noem's resignation on social media and that the "LAWLESS mass deportation raids" must be suspended "NOW." More than 100 Democrats have signed to bring articles of impeachment against Noem in response to the shooting.
No new funding.
— Gavin Newsom (@GavinNewsom) January 25, 2026
Kristi Noem must RESIGN.
Greg Bovino must be FIRED.
Suspend the LAWLESS mass deportation raids nationwide NOW — ICE is no longer just deporting dangerous criminals.
Send the border patrol back to the border.
End the militarization of ICE + the sick racial…
Former MAGA ally and Republican Representative, Marjorie Taylor Greene condemned the shooting, stating "Legally carrying a firearm is not the same as brandishing a firearm...There is nothing wrong with legally peacefully protesting and videoing."
I impeached Biden’s Secretary of Homeland Security, Alejandro Mayorkas, those were my articles of impeachment that passed in the House of Representatives. I unapologetically believe in border security and deporting criminal illegal aliens and I support law enforcement.
— Former Congresswoman Marjorie Taylor Greene🇺🇸 (@FmrRepMTG) January 25, 2026
However,…
Even gun-rights allies in Minnesota accused Noem and Patel of spreading misinformation about what happened, a rare public rebuke from a constituency that typically aligns with hard-line enforcement messaging. Trump said his administration was reviewing the shooting amid bipartisan criticism of the ICE surge, a framing that left room for accountability rather than unequivocal endorsement of Noem's explanation.
That gap between Noem's certainty and Trump's hedging is what prediction markets feed on. Traders are not voting on whether they like Noem, they are pricing the chance that pressure, investigations, internal blame-shifting, or a strategic reshuffle will force a resignation or dismissal.
