This is a strange kind of tour, one that could either go very well or end up creating big problems for the summer. England are strong favourites, which isn't a position they usually enjoy, but it could come down to how the big names in the dressing room have reacted to all the mudslinging that has gone on since the fallout between Kevin Pietersen and Peter Moores. Will the players come together, or will they still be smarting? The first Test in Jamaica, starting today, could tell us everything.
For Pietersen, this series is a huge challenge, and that's exactly how he prefers it. Unlike some, he's not scared of challenges and I believe he likes to prove things to himself as much as he does to others. Sure, he's hurting after the way he was relieved of the captaincy, but he's very good at knowing what's best for the team and I promise you he'll be there for Andrew Strauss. He's a solid guy, KP. There's not a vindictive bone in him.
In fact, Strauss may find that his biggest problem is the fitness of one or two individuals. I was amazed to hear Steve Harmison admitting he wasn't properly fit for the tour of India. How fit is he now if he wasn't right there, even having had the one-dayers in India to get fit for the Tests? That has to be a major concern. Yes, I'd pick him even at 85-90% fitness because Sabina Park could prove conducive to his bounce, but England mustn't fool themselves about his physical condition like they have before. Fingers crossed he's ready, because Harmison must sense the feelgood factor in Jamaica where he destroyed West Indies five years ago.
I'd also be worried about Andrew Flintoff and Ryan Sidebottom. It looks as if Jimmy Anderson might miss out, but if something happens to Flintoff you really want guys with plenty of overs under their belt, which Sidebottom doesn't have. Anderson should play instead of him, with Stuart Broad providing back-up and depth with the bat. I'm also happy with Monty Panesar ahead of Graeme Swann, whose batting hasn't looked anything special so far, but it's a very tight call between Ian Bell and Owais Shah. Bell must really be under some pressure now.
There are a couple of other issues that stand in the way of an England win. You have to wonder how distracting the IPL auction is going to be. It's going to be very interesting to see what happens if Pietersen is bought for more than Flintoff. And what about guys who don't even attract a bid? There could be a few blokes battling to hide their true emotions in the dressing room on Friday when news filters through from Goa.
Then there's that man Shivnarine Chanderpaul. We were lucky when we played against them in the Caribbean last time because all our plans seemed to click, but the way he batted in England in 2007 suggests he has worked pretty hard since then. The key to getting him out is to push him back on to his stumps with a few short balls, then send down a slightly wider one outside off.
I'll try to avoid getting too technical here, but because of the nature of his trigger movements he sometimes has trouble transferring his weight quickly enough to the front foot, so there's always the chance of a catch to gully, covers, or a nick to the slips. England must be patient, though. And they must bowl to a plan, because Chanderpaul can leave the ball alone superbly.
Chris Gayle's another guy who can be dangerous for different reasons. He's an excitable kind of batter, so you've somehow got to get him a bit sparky: mix it up, bounce him, tempt him into an indiscretion. You need a tight line with variations in pace. But you have to get it absolutely right because he can be murderous. Poor old Matthew Hoggard was hit for six fours in an over once at The Oval, so we know what he can do.
I'd also like to see some runs for Alastair Cook, who has been lurking in the shadows a bit in the last year or so. If you keep getting out in the 50s and 60s, that's a concern. Once you get past 30, it's a purely mental game, and that's where a coach can only help you so much. It's all about self-drive. I'd like to see Cook work on that aspect of his game and pull his weight a bit more.
This is the perfect time for England to get their act together if they can. I know it's dangerous to look too far ahead, but they must be taking great heart from the way Australia are playing. I reckon the Aussies are almost back to where they were in the early 1980s when they hit rock bottom. If England can pull together in the Caribbean, the summer will look a lot more promising.
