KOLKATA: The spike in Covid-19 cases that began from second week of June continues unabated. The positivity rate surged to 14.7% on Friday from 12.9% the previous day while the fresh case count went up to 1,739 from 1,524. Health officials said the next two to three weeks will be crucial as far as the infection spread is concerned.
From a total of 1,100-plus cases for the entire month of May, the count shot up to 10,000 plus in June. In April, the number for the entire month had gone down to just about 900 cases. Despite only about 4% of the about 7,000 active cases being under hospital care, what is concerning to health officials is the rise in ICU admission.
"No doubt majority of the active cases are not requiring hospital care. But there is a gradual rise in patients who require intensive care, mostly patients who are elderly people with comorbidities. We expect patients needing hospital admission to rise further. The next few weeks will be crucial," said a source in health department.
During the third wave the surge was sharp and speedy and so was the decline. This time it has taken 19 days for the Covid count to touch the four-digit figure when the numbers reached three-digit figure in about four months on June 10. Health experts feel that this is not a wave but a surge that is expected in every five to six months.
"Cases are unlikely to swell like the way we saw in the third wave. We are detecting less cases because of the ICMR guideline to test only the symptomatic people and patients who need to undergo procedures like ENT and dental. However, this is unlikely a wave but periodical surge that we could be encountering in every around six months in future," said microbiologist Bhaskar Narayan Chaudhuri of Peerless Hospital.
Even as there was no death on Friday, June had logged 15 Covid deaths against only 3 and 4 in May and April, respectively. With number of patients in critical care rising further health officials apprehend case fatality to go up slightly.
"Even as the current surge is causing mostly mild disease we have started getting a few severe cases. From zero Covid patients for months we currently have seven under our care. Next two to three weeks will give a clear picture on how the current surge will behave," said Raja Dhar, director pulmonology at CMRI.
