March 16--The general election campaign between Republican Sen. Mark Kirk and Democratic challenger Rep. Tammy Duckworth is expected to be one of the nation's most bitter and expensive, with the winner potentially tilting control of the U.S. Senate.
Each candidate has a compelling story about recovery from physical challenges. Each has a military background and spotlighted veterans care and national security. And each showed a commitment to win in the fall by focusing on each other rather than opponents they easily dispatched in Tuesday's primary.
While political sniping between the two campaigns already has gone for months, some political experts warn that both sides should be considerate, given the candidates' physical impairments.
Both candidates frequently use a wheelchair. Kirk had a massive stroke in 2012 and spent almost a year in rehabilitation. His left side was impaired. Duckworth served in the Iraq War as an Army helicopter pilot and was shot down. She lost her legs.
"Both of them have to be careful with how they get ugly with the other," said David Yepsen, director of the Paul Simon Public Policy Institute at Southern Illinois University at Carbondale. "You have to be careful how you go after somebody like those two people."
The National Republican Senatorial Committee learned that lesson last week when it sent out a message via Twitter: "Tammy Duckworth has a sad record of not standing up for our veterans."
The tweet was quickly deleted, but Duckworth's team promptly used it in a fundraising pitch, and the mistake is likely to surface again in the upcoming campaign.
Kirk finds himself seeking a second term during a presidential election year, a time when Illinois has trended heavily Democratic. When he first won the Senate seat in 2010, a nonpresidential year, Kirk defeated then-Democratic state Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias by less than 2 percent of the vote.
Facing only nominal opposition from Oswego businessman James Marter in Tuesday's primary, Kirk had the luxury of making only sporadic campaign-related public appearances and did not debate his opponent -- factors that will change for the general election.
Duckworth, who had a huge name recognition advantage over her two primary opponents, sought to limit how much attention they got by participating in only three debates, two before Chicago newspaper editorial boards and one televised forum.
Kirk strategy
Still, the primary gave each of the campaigns a chance to demonstrate its message heading into the fall.
Kirk's campaign listed a three-pronged strategy: veterans care, national security and independence versus partisanship.
Kirk is chairman of the Appropriations Subcommittee on Military Construction and Veterans Affairs, which oversees funding for the Department of Veterans Affairs and Department of Defense construction projects.
The senator has used the position to showcase concerns over treatment of veterans and how the agency has wrongly gone after whistleblowers at the suburban Hines Veterans Affairs Hospital. Kirk also will attempt to link ongoing problems at the federal Department of Veterans Affairs to Duckworth, who previously was an assistant secretary at the department before being elected to Congress.
Last weekend, Kirk said he would win by focusing on what he has done for Illinoisans, including working to end a "culture of corruption" at Hines VA Hospital.
"We just are the best advocate possible that we can be for the people of Illinois," he said.
Kirk also singled out the prospect of a major infusion of downstate jobs if the National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency moves a large facility from St. Louis to nearby Scott Air Force Base in Illinois. A bipartisan group of Illinois lawmakers has been lobbying the agency, which assists the Defense Department and intelligence community and is planning to relocate.
Kirk's camp also has regularly pointed to a pending lawsuit alleging that Duckworth retaliated against two state employees at the Anna Veterans' Home in southern Illinois who say they received poor evaluations and were targets of harassment after filing complaints against the facility's acting director. The since-amended suit accuses Duckworth, who led Illinois' veterans affairs agency at the time under then-Gov. Rod Blagojevich, of violating the state's ethics act. The employees still have their jobs.
The Republican contends that Duckworth sought to "silence" whistleblowers. Duckworth's team denies treating any employees unfairly and notes that the original lawsuit was dismissed by a federal judge in 2008 as a "garden variety workplace case."
The next court proceeding is March 22, when a date will be set for arguments on Duckworth's motion for summary judgment to try to end the yearslong legal wrangling.
In addition, Kirk's team will continue pushing the issue of national security, noting the Republican's opposition to the Iran nuclear deal that Duckworth supported, as well as his call for a pause in accepting refugees from war-torn Syria. Kirk's camp contends that Duckworth supports resettling 200,000 refugees from Syria in the United States, but her campaign said she supports the resettling of 200,000 refugees altogether, including 100,000 from Syria, by the end of the year.
The Republican also will attempt to paint Duckworth as a rubber stamp for the Democratic leadership while trying to frame Kirk's image as independent-minded and willing to break party ranks.
Duckworth strategy
In contrast, Duckworth's campaign said it will try to portray Kirk's 16-year federal career as emblematic of what the problems are in Washington.
Using a liberal playbook based on some ideas highlighted by Democratic Sen. Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts, Duckworth will focus on economic concerns. Her campaign said it believes people in Illinois are still feeling the effects of the recession and have anxiety over whether they will regain what they lost or move forward.
To help accomplish that, Duckworth will stress her background growing up in a family that faced poverty, assisted by food stamps and subsidized school breakfast and lunch programs. In addition, her campaign will go after Kirk's support for free trade, including pointing out the aftereffects of the North American Free Trade Agreement and thousands of skilled jobs lost in Illinois as a result.
Duckworth also will focus on the issue of high student loan debt, and question why loans can't be refinanced as part of an overall theme that people are feeling financially squeezed and that the economic system is rigged against them.
Last weekend, Duckworth accused Kirk of "divisive, (Donald) Trump rhetoric and fear-mongering," foreshadowing that she'll try to tie her opponent to the controversial business mogul if he captures the Republican presidential nomination.
Even before the votes were counted, the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee was anticipating a big night for Republican presidential front-runner Trump.
The DSCC is behind a Web ad spotlighting several Republican senators and congressmen who have pledged to support the GOP's nominee, even if it's Trump. That includes Kirk.
In speeches, Duckworth already has highlighted Kirk's series of verbal gaffes. The senator has come under criticism for telling a Peoria newspaper that people drive faster through black neighborhoods and for being caught on an open microphone at a Senate hearing calling unmarried U.S. Sen. Lindsey Graham of South Carolina a "bro with no ho."
Big money
Democrats now control 46 seats in the 100-member Senate. That means the party needs to pick up five seats to retake the majority, four if a Democrat wins the White House because the vice president can serve as a tiebreaker.
A handful of contests are in play, including a GOP-held seat in Wisconsin where first-term Sen. Ron Johnson faces a rematch with former Democratic Sen. Russ Feingold.
Illinois U.S. Sen. Dick Durbin, the No. 2 Democrat in the chamber, said the Illinois and Wisconsin races "are the two considered to be the clearest indicators of whether we gain the majority."
The race is going to get expensive. Kirk, who had $3.4 million in his campaign fund as of late last month, said he expects to raise and spend about $20 million. Duckworth had about $3.6 million to start March.
In 2010, Kirk spent $13 million in defeating Giannoulias, who spent more than $9.3 million, Federal Election Commission records show. Outside groups also spent $8.7 million to aid Kirk's prospects; they spent less than $800,000 to boost Giannoulias' chances, according to the watchdog group Public Citizen. Such tax-exempt groups may accept unlimited contributions.
This time around, more than $1.1 million already has been spent by outside groups. A half-million dollars was spent by the U.S. Chamber of Commerce on unusual summer advertising backing Kirk, while VoteVets.Org Action Fund spent more than $620,000 on ads supporting Duckworth and attacking Kirk.
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