They used to weigh the Labour vote in constituencies across the North West.
Now, Sir Keir Starmer’s party is scrapping for every vote.
Alarm bells started blaring for Labour when Zack Polanski’s Green Party won the Gorton and Denton by-election in February.
After Nigel Farage’s Reform UK gained some 1,500 seats at the May 7 local elections, no constituency in the North West and most other parts of the country appears to be a safe Labour seat.
Apart from in London.
So could Labour’s lifeline be a return to Parliament for Mr Burnham, through the capital, to challenge for the party leadership?
Mr Burnham’s strength as a candidate is that he can appeal to both of Labour’s wings and so might be able to unite the bitterly divided party.
Health Secretary Wes Streeting, MP for Ilford North, is seen as a candidate of the Right of the party, and former Deputy Prime Minister Angela Rayner as the possible contender from the Left.
Some of Mr Burnham’s allies also argue that the Labour Party should not be led by another London MP so it can win back voters who have switched to Reform in the regions.
Ms Rayner, when she launched a scathing attack on Sir Keir’s Government, supported Mr Burnham returning to the Commons.
But this could be partly playing for time as she still has a tax row with HMRC hanging over her so delaying a leadership contest may be in her favour.
Mr Burnham, elected Leigh MP in the 1997 Blair landslide victory, has served in three Cabinet roles as Health Secretary, Culture Secretary and as Chief Secretary to the Treasury.
But he really made his name as Greater Manchester Mayor, being dubbed the “King of the North”.
Labour MPs are still divided over who would be their best contender to replace Sir Keir.
Some of them also question the practicality and likelihood of Mr Burnham being able to make a swift Commons comeback, after Labour chiefs blocked his attempt to be the party’s candidate for the Gorton and Denton by-election.
So where could Labour find a safe, or at least safeish, seat?
Mr Burnham would no doubt prefer to return to Parliament by winning a seat in the North West.
But if he tries, and fails, he may then have to consider the stark option of seeking a London seat.
Labour got a hammering in the capital in the local elections as Mr Polanski’s Green Party stormed to historic gains in Hackney, Waltham Forest, Lewisham and a string of other boroughs.
But there are still some seats in the city which Labour would still be the clear frontrunner to win in a by-election.
They include Hammersmith and Chiswick where qualified barrister Andy Slaughter won at the 2024 general election with 24,073 votes, or a 52.3% share of the vote.
At the May 7 local elections, Labour gained one seat to have 38 on Hammersmith and Fulham Council, with the Conservatives up two to 12, and the Greens losing two to end up with zero.
The Polanski Green surge is definitely not happening is this borough.
Leading Labour Leftwinger John McDonnell has been pushing for an orderly transition of power which would allow Mr Burnham to be a leadership contender.
The former shadow Chancellor represents Hayes and Harlington, in west London, a seat he retained two years ago with just over 20,000 votes, or 53.3% of the vote.
The Tories were in second place with 8,374 votes, or 21.9% of the vote share, with the Greens and Reform significantly trailing behind the two traditional main parties.
The Conservatives kept control of the borough of Hillingdon, which includes Hayes and Harlington, at the local elections, gaining one seat to have 30, with Labour unchanged on 16, Reform winning four for the first time, and Greens retaining one.
Another London seat which looks safeish for Labour is Eltham and Chislehurst.
Former taxi driver Clive Efford won this constituency at the general election with just over 20,000 votes, or 44% of the vote share, with the Tories in second place on 11,640 or 25.5%.
The Green Party threat looks limited, with its candidate gaining just over 3,000 votes, or less than 7% of the vote.
Reform is more popular in this corner of the city, having got 7,428 votes, or 16.3%.
But Mr Farage’s party failed to make the inroads he was aiming for in the capital at the local elections.
Fiercely-competitive Mr Burnham may well still believe he can win a by-election in the North West.
If the “King of the North” opted for a London constituency, how he would square this with Manchester voters would be interesting to see.
However, the attraction of a seat in the capital is that many Left-leaning voters who backed the Greens at the local elections may well support Mr Burnham in a by-election if it was a contest against Reform.
Whether any London MP would step aside for Mr Burnham, possibly by being elevated to the Lords, is yet to be seen.
