We get a rematch of a 2018 AFC Divisional playoff as the Kansas City Chiefs host the Indianapolis Colts on Sunday Night Football.
The Chiefs are looking to stay atop of the AFC on their long conquest to secure home-field advantage in the playoffs for the second consecutive season. The Colts, meanwhile, are in a dog fight for the AFC South, in which all teams in the division currently sit at 2-2.
Let’s take a look at the keys for a Chiefs victory over the Colts:
Tighten up against the run
The Chiefs have put an emphasis on pass defense over run defense, challenging offense to keep up with theirs by running the ball. It’s worked up to this point with Kansas City’s 4-0 record, but it almost caught up with them last week against the Detroit Lions.
Detroit rushed for 186 yards against the Chiefs and held the ball for nearly eight more minutes than them. The K.C. offense couldn’t stay in a consistent rhythm being sidelined and quarterback Matthew Stafford fed off his running game for his best game of the season.
The Colts enter this game with the No. 7 ranked rushing offense. Like Stafford, Jacoby Brissett is at his best when he can play off a successful running game. The Chiefs don’t need to have a top 10 run defense but they have to be better than 31st moving forward.
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Frank Clark finds his groove
It’s obviously ludicrous to say that Clark is a bust signing for the Chiefs just four games into a five-year contract, but it’s fair to say Clark is off to a bit of a slow and disappointing start in 2019. He has just one sack so far this season, albeit a crucial one and he was a non-factor last week against the Lions.
Clark was vocal about his struggles this week, admitting that he needs to produce more sacks. He’s done the little things such as taking on double teams to open things up for others and set the edge against the run, but K.C. didn’t give up two high draft picks and give Clark $105 million just to do the little things.
Clark must become more of a game-changer, getting sacks at critical points in the game and forcing fumbles. He’ll have his work cut out for him this week against a very good Colts offensive line.
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Feed TE Travis Kelce early and often
Kelce has been the most consistent target for quarterback Patrick Mahomes this season. He leads all tight ends in receiving yards with 369 and leads the Chiefs in receptions with 24. Mahomes struggled to get into rhythm with is wide receivers last week and had the most success when targeting Kelce.
The Colts’ defense plays a Tampa 2 scheme which tries to limit big plays downfield. This could really open things up for Kelce underneath. In last season’s playoff game against Indy, Kelce caught seven passes for 108 yards. The Colts have surrendered the third-most receptions and the fifth-most receiving yards to tight ends this season.
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Better consistency from K Harrison Butker
Butker has been one of the better kickers in the NFL since joining the Chiefs back in 2017 but has had some struggles as of late. He missed an extra point in Week 3 and missed a 36-yard field goal last week. Both of those games were tight, one possession wins for Kansas City.
More often than not, games in the NFL are close and come down to a handful of key plays. The Chiefs need Butker to be clutch and make big kicks, like he did in last season’s AFC Championship game. Every kick matters and every win matters as Kansas City strives to secure the No. 1 seed in the AFC for a second-straight season.
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Keep the hot hand in at running back
The Chiefs have a very good running back trio of LeSean McCoy, Damien Williams and Darrel Williams. With Damien expected to return from injury this week, the Chiefs have a decision to make with how to use all three of them effectively.
The best solution is probably to just keep feeding whoever has the hot hand of the moment. In Week 3, it was Darrel Williams. Last week it was McCoy, though, Kansas City puzzling went away from him late in the fourth quarter in favor of Darrel. With Damien back in the mix, Darrel’s load will likely be reduced the most.
The Colts will be without star linebacker Darius Leonard in this game, which will be a big blow for their front seven. This could be an opportunity for the Chiefs to control the game on the ground and give Mahomes a break from having to carry the load so much.
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