At a South Australian shopping centre, Philip Colebatch is handing out flyers for the Indigenous voice to parliament no campaign.
And as the campaign heads into its final days, he’s getting a “sniff” from voters he’s talking to that “it’s leaning to no”.
“I just get the nods and the winks,” he says.
South Australia has become a key battleground state in the lead up to the voice referendum. On Friday – just over a week from the vote – all state and territory leaders descended on Adelaide, including the sole Liberal, Tasmania’s Jeremy Rockcliff. They all support the federal voice to parliament.
The shadow Indigenous Australians minister and leading no campaigner, Jacinta Nampijinpa Price, was also due to arrive in Adelaide on Friday evening.
Anthony Albanese announced the date of the vote in Adelaide due to South Australia’s potential to be the swing state that decides the outcome, and both the yes and no campaign have had disproportionately high ad spends in the state.
That’s because the yes campaign needs to win four states and the national result to carry the required “double majority” for constitutional change, meaning voice supporters will need to claim Tasmania and South Australia.
But polling for South Australia has dipped below a winnable level, and according to people on the ground, many people are voting no.
Another no campaigner, Alistair Crooks, says the shopping centre crowds are fairly polarised – and his years on polling booths have taught him you can’t always take them at their word. He, too, has heard more support for the no campaign, “but that’s skewed,” he says.
“It’s older people who’ve got the time to come down here. The young are still working. I don’t think we can read anything too much into it.”
As she hands out pamphlets for the Yes23 campaign just metres away from Colebatch, Kate Baldock says it’s a “mixed vibe” among the people she has talked to, with about 60% backing the no vote.
With early voting opening earlier this week, any last ditch campaigning may be too late.
Most of the volunteers Guardian Australia spoke to said voters haven’t asked many questions as they head inside – and if they did ask questions, it was often to get directions, to ask about ballot papers, or hint at conspiracy theories.
Baldock said some people stopped to ask questions about how the voice would work, and what difference it would make – particularly for healthcare – but many walked straight in.
“I think people are voting early because they know what they’re going to vote for. That nothing’s going to change their mind,” she says.
The South Australian Liberal leader, David Speirs, whose party also voted against the South Australian state voice to parliament, which was legislated in March, says he’s increasingly hearing from young people and women saying they will vote against the voice.
After a recent visit to regional South Australia’s Port Lincoln, he claims nine in 10 early voters cast their ballot for no.
“People have made up their minds on this,” he says.
But the SA premier, Peter Malinauskas, a prominent and vocal supporter of the yes campaign, still maintains the referendum is “winnable”.
He says the vibe varies at the early voting stations, and he’s met his share of hard nos. But there are also those who are open to changing their minds when the debate is distilled down to a “simple proposition”.
“I’ve been pleasantly surprised about the amount of people whose opinion seems to change when you simply explain to them that it’s a non-binding advisory committee of Aboriginal people advising on matters that affect Aboriginal people,” he says.
And while the debate has veered into racism, polarising rhetoric, misinformation and personal attacks across the country, at a ground level it has been more civil.
Those working on the ground say that while there’s robust debate between the volunteers, it’s mostly calm.
“You’ve got passions on both sides. If you’re passionate enough to hand out how-to-vote cards, sometimes you do get a little bit of a sparky vibe between people, but overall it’s been good,” Baldock says.
The Yes23 campaigner Mary Annesley says conversations with no campaigners have been “very civilised and friendly”.
“But we have argued very strongly for what we believe in,” she says.
In Australia, support is available at 13YARN on 13 92 76 for Indigenous Australians as well as Beyond Blue on 1300 22 4636, Lifeline on 13 11 14, and at MensLine on 1300 789 978. International helplines can be found at befrienders.org
