Twelve days, three games and no margin for error. That is what Tottenham’s season has come down to and the pressure is on. The good news is that for Manchester City the strain is even more intense.
Tonight’s Champions League quarter-final first leg at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium is the beginning of a spell that will test the fortitude of Mauricio Pochettino and his squad.
There is a fourth match in there, too, against Huddersfield — the champions play Crystal Palace as well — but the three Spurs-Man City match-ups are as pivotal a series of games as either club have experienced in the reigns of Pochettino and Pep Guardiola.
City are the favourites to advance but European double-headers throw up surprises. Chelsea turned over Arsenal’s ‘Invincibles’ at this stage in 2004. A year later the Blues lost to a weaker Liverpool side in the semis. Last season, City froze in front of the Kop. Spurs will have learnt the lesson of Anfield and tonight the huge South Stand will be in a state of frenzy but fans do not win games. Pochettino’s tactics will be much more important.
It is vital he gets it right. The 47-year-old is a fine strategist and proved this on Merseyside last month when Tottenham were unlucky to lose 2-1 to Liverpool. After being outplayed in the first half, he made adjustments that changed the match and Spurs were unfortunate not to win.
Yet, initially, Liverpool felt they had isolated a weakness in Spurs’ set-up.
Pochettino’s use of wing-backs left gaps in the midfield and defence that Jurgen Klopp’s men could exploit. This was pronounced because Spurs deployed a back three. The centre-backs tended to spread too far apart when the home side’s full-backs advanced and Moussa Sissoko was not mobile nor disciplined enough to protect the defenders. Roberto Firmino was detailed to run across the face of the three centre-backs from the right and dart between them.
When Tottenham went to a back four in the second half this changed. Dele Alli dropped deeper and the midfield quartet choked off Liverpool’s chances.
City are another team that relish playing against three centre-backs.
Guardiola’s defenders like to push up to the halfway line and squeeze the pitch. This allows the front five to press the opposition in the attacking zones and win the ball in dangerous areas.
The downside is it often leaves Fernandino as the only dedicated midfielder and lots of space behind the City back line. If Spurs flood the midfield areas and bypass the early press they will find opportunity. Their midfielders cannot switch off for a second but if they control the central areas the positives are huge. The City defence cannot handle Alli’s runs or Harry Kane’s strength. Christian Eriksen should get space and Heung-min Son can stretch the opposition.
Discipline will be important, too, and Spurs need to shake their reputation for losing their heads at crucial points.
The last match in this series — in the Premier League — is as important and things could get attritional by then. If Spurs do everything right, no one can deny they are a real force.
