Every week in the NFL has key games that will eventually have a big impact on the playoff races, and Week 3 is no different.
On Sunday, there are six games worth focusing on, including a pair of matchups between undefeated teams. In Philadelphia, the Eagles and Rams will clash in a rematch of their divisional showdown from January. In the NFC West, we will have the Cardinals and 49ers in Santa Clara, Calif.
Then there is the Monday night matchup, with the Ravens hosting the Lions, a game that could well be replayed come February in Super Bowl LX.
But we start in the AFC South, where the two-time defending division champs are looking for their first win of the season, while Liam Coen’s upstarts try to get two games clear of them in the standings.
Texans (0–2) at Jaguars (1–1)
Spread: Jacksonville -1.5
Key matchup: Houston’s ball protection vs. Jacksonville’s defense
Key stat: The Jaguars have forced a league-high six turnovers.
Date, Time, TV: 1 p.m. ET Sunday, CBS
Houston will be facing its Armageddon. At 0–2, the reality is that only 1-of-41 teams that have started 0–3 since the start of the 2015 season have made the playoffs.
The Texans are trying to win a road divisional battle on a short week after falling to the Buccaneers on Monday night. The biggest key could be protecting the ball, something Jacksonville has been giving its opponents fits with.
Through two games, the Jaguars have collected an NFL-best six takeaways, including five interceptions off Jake Browning and Bryce Young. While C.J. Stroud is significantly better than both, he’s also behind an offensive line allowing sacks on 10.5% of dropbacks, fourth-worst in the league.
Meanwhile, the Jaguars have one of the NFL’s best pass-rushing duos in Josh Hines-Allen and Travon Walker. Although Hines-Allen and Walker have just a half-sack against porous lines through two weeks against the Panthers and Bengals, they notched a combined 18.5 sacks and 34 quarterback hits in 2024. While the sacks haven’t been there early, seven quarterback hits would suggest they’re coming.
With Houston’s desperation and Jacksonville’s uneven play against a soft schedule so far, there’s reason to believe the Texans will get their first win. Still, they must win the turnover battle, something the Jaguars are currently plus-3 in for the year and second only to the Colts.
Verderame’s verdict: Houston 20, Jacksonville 17
Steelers (1–1) at Patriots (1–1)
Spread: Pittsburgh -1.5
Key matchup: The Steelers’ defense vs. Drake Maye
Key stat: Pittsburgh is a bottom-five defense in points and yards.
Date, Time, TV: 1 p.m. ET Sunday, CBS
Going into the season, all eyes were on Pittsburgh’s offense. Perhaps the focus was on the wrong side of the ball.
Through two weeks against relatively benign offenses in the Jets and Seahawks, the Steelers have been getting lit up like a Christmas tree at Rockefeller Center. Pittsburgh has allowed 789 total yards and 63 points, both fourth-worst in the NFL. The Steelers also rank 23rd on third down (46.4%) and 25th in the red zone defensively (71.4%), giving coach Mike Tomlin reason to be concerned in both overall and situational aspects.
While the Patriots aren’t an offensive juggernaut, they scored 33 points last week in a win over the Dolphins and should continuously improve with Drake Maye approaching his 15th start.
To this point, New England is 14th in yards per play (5.4) and 11th in net yards per pass attempt (6.4) while Maye has thrown for 517 yards with three touchdowns and an interception. The second pick in the 2024 draft is also seventh in EPA per play (0.241) and a respectable 12th in success rate (48.3%).
For the Steelers, winning will likely come down to playing better situational football against a New England team that has been average in those spots, including 14th on third down (42.3%) and 16th inside the 20-yard line (57.1%). But it won’t be as simple as the pass rush relying on blitzing. Pittsburgh sends extra rushers on 39.3% of its snaps, fourth-most in football.
Expect plenty of points, and some consternation in the Steel City if things don’t go well once again.
Verderame’s verdict: New England 26, Pittsburgh 24
Rams (2–0) at Eagles (2–0)
Spread: Philadelphia -3.5
Key matchup: Philadelphia’s offensive line vs. Los Angeles’s front four
Key stat: Los Angeles is second in the NFL with eight sacks.
Date, Time, TV: 1 p.m. ET Sunday, Fox
In January, the Rams walked off the field in Philadelphia, knowing they came within 22 yards of going to the NFC title game. In the ensuing weeks, nobody else could challenge the Eagles on their way to one of the more dominant postseason runs.
Through two weeks, the Eagles are not playing their best football. They’ve muddled through a pair of one-score wins over the Cowboys and the banged-up Chiefs, but the offense is concerning. Last weekend, Jalen Hurts threw for just 101 yards while Saquon Barkley has yet to eclipse 100 yards in a game this season. A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith are also off to slow starts, combining for 13 catches and 104 yards with zero touchdowns.
Meanwhile, the Rams have wins over the Texans and Titans, recording eight sacks and a pressure rate of 24%, ranking second and seventh, respectively, across the NFL. The front four is one of the league’s best, led by reigning Defensive Rookie of the Year Jared Verse and fellow second-year man Braden Fiske. Edge rusher Byron Young is also off to a blazing start with three sacks, including two last Sunday on Cam Ward.
The good news for Philadelphia? It has a pair of Pro Bowl tackles in Jordan Mailata and Lane Johnson, and two stars on the interior with guard Landon Dickerson and center Cam Jurgens. If the front holds up as it typically does, the Eagles will be challenging on offense. However, in that aforementioned playoff game, the Rams recorded seven sacks, only to lose with Barkley churning out 205 rushing yards.
This is an enormous test for a Philadelphia offense ranked 20th in dropback EPA (0.042) and tied for 30th in yards per play (4.3).
Verderame’s verdict: Los Angeles 21, Philadelphia 19
Cowboys (1–1) at Bears (0–2)
Spread: Dallas -1.5
Key matchup: Caleb Williams and Ben Johnson vs. Matt Eberflus
Key stat: Chicago is allowing 7.1 yards per play, the worst in football.
Date, Time, TV: 4:25 p.m. ET Sunday, Fox
After losing 27–24 at home to the Vikings to start the season, the Bears were blasted 52–21 by the Lions in Week 2. At 0–2, it’s desperation time for Chicago and its first-time coach Ben Johnson, who thus far has found little success.
For Johnson and second-year quarterback Caleb Williams, the pressure is on to beat Dallas.
Last week, the Cowboys surrendered 450 passing yards to Russell Wilson while letting the talent-challenged Giants score 37 points. Dallas’s defense is 30th in EPA per play (0.195), better only than the Jets and Dolphins. For Williams, this is an opportunity to keep improving after throwing for 207 yards and two touchdowns in Detroit.
To that end, Johnson should be able to dial up some quality calls while Williams plays a familiar foe. Former Bears coach Matt Eberflus is the Cowboys’ defensive coordinator after he was fired after 12 games last year. Eberflus, the ultimate believer in zone coverage, has yet to call a single snap of man defense.
While the defense was supposed to be a strength entering the season, early-season injuries to corners Jaylon Johnson and Kyler Gordon, and linebacker T.J. Edwards has created significant problems. Gordon and Edwards will return, but the Bears have struggled in their absence, surrendering 7.1 yards per play, the worst in football. Chicago also has three sacks, better than only the Titans, Eagles and Panthers.
On the other side of the ball, the Bears will be facing an offense ranked seventh in passing yards (531), 11th in rushing yards (254), 11th in yards per play (5.6) and fifth in points (60). With Chicago’s defense ailing, the pressure will be on Johnson and Williams to score points.
If the Bears can’t take advantage of a bad and predictable Dallas defense, the season will be over before it began.
Verderame’s verdict: Dallas 30, Chicago 24
Cardinals (2–0) at 49ers (2–0)
Spread: San Francisco -2.5
Key matchup: Kyler Murray vs. the 49ers (and his history)
Key stat: Murray is 4–4 against San Francisco in his career.
Date, Time, TV: 4:25 p.m. ET Sunday, Fox
The best game nobody is talking about will be happening in Santa Clara.
San Francisco will be starting Mac Jones for the second consecutive week, and is doing so without pass catchers George Kittle (hamstring), Brandon Aiyuk (knee) and Demarcus Robinson (suspension). The Cardinals, meanwhile, have shaky wins over a pair of winless teams in the Saints and Panthers.
A matchup of unbeatens, this is a referendum game for Kyler Murray and the Cardinals. In his seventh year, Murray has yet to win a playoff game or a division title. The talent around him, including tight end Trey McBride, receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. and running back James Conner, suggests a realistic shot at both in 2025. But if Murray can’t beat Jones and a defense light on star power, save for rookie Mykel Williams, edge rusher Nick Bosa and linebacker Fred Warner, it’s a bad sign of things to come.
In the early going, Murray has been fine. Despite being sacked six times, he’s thrown for 383 yards (7.1 YPA) with three touchdowns while completing 70.4% of his attempts. Over his career against San Francisco, the 2019 No. 1 pick is a respectable 4–4 with 12 touchdown passes against five interceptions, despite often playing on the lesser side.
Thus far, San Francisco’s defense has stymied opponents, limiting the Seahawks and the Saints to 4.6 yards per play and 17 points per game, both top-seven figures. Still, Robert Saleh’s unit hasn’t faced an offense with this much firepower.
With all of the injuries to the Niners’ offense, Murray shouldn’t have to be Superman. He needs to be good and avoid the big mistakes.
Verderame’s verdict: Arizona 24, San Francisco 18
Lions (1–1) at Ravens (1–1)
Spread: Baltimore -4.5
Key matchup: The Ravens vs. the NFC
Key stat: Lamar Jackson is 24–4 against the NFC in his career.
Date, Time, TV: 8:15 p.m. ET Monday, ESPN
If the Lions are going to beat Lamar Jackson and the Ravens, they will need to do something we’ve only seen one NFC team do before: beat Baltimore in its building with Jackson under center.
Jackson has dominated the NFC in his career, sporting a 24–4 record. His only home loss came last year to the Eagles, falling 24–19 in Week 13. Otherwise, Jackson and the Ravens have been perfect in these spots, including a 38–6 thrashing of the Lions at M&T Bank Stadium in 2023, the last time these two teams met.
On that day, Jackson threw for 357 yards and three touchdowns on only 27 attempts while Jared Goff was sacked five times in defeat. Both teams ended up in their respective conference title games that season, with each falling a game short of the Super Bowl.
For the Lions, the key will be shutting down the run. Through two weeks, Baltimore has 283 yards, fifth-best in football, while averaging a league-high 5.7 yards per carry. Success on the ground is nothing new for Baltimore, which has ranked in the top three in rushing yardage every year of Jackson’s career. So far in 2025, Detroit’s run defense has been decidedly average, ranking 15th in rushing yards per game against (106.0) and yards per carry (4.1).
To beat the Ravens in their house, the Lions will have to be nearly perfect. Even after last week’s 52–21 win over the Bears, there’s not enough evidence that they can do that.
This article was originally published on www.si.com as Key Matchups That Will Decide Six of the Biggest Week 3 NFL Games.
