One of the NFL’s best rivalries is getting renewed once again.
On Sunday, the Commanders will visit the Cowboys at AT&T Stadium, marking the 131st time the two franchises have squared off, including the postseason. Dallas holds a 79-49-2 advantage in the matchups, but the two sides split the season series in 2024, with both winning at the other team’s stadium.
For the Commanders, it’s a chance to potentially pull into a tie atop the NFC East with the Eagles (depending on what they do against the Vikings), while the Cowboys are simply looking to get back to .500.
Elsewhere, Sunday’s action begins at Wembley Stadium with the Rams and Jaguars facing off in London. Jacksonville is coming off a loss to the Seahawks, while Los Angeles handled the injury-riddled Ravens, 17–3, before traveling across the pond.
Then there’s the Monday night affair between the Buccaneers and Lions in a playoff rematch of two years ago. Tampa Bay and Detroit are both dealing with a crush of injuries, but that hasn’t stopped either side. The Buccaneers are 5–1 and leading the NFC South comfortably behind quarterback Baker Mayfield and his MVP-level numbers, while the Lions are pacing the NFC North at 4–2 due to the league’s highest-scoring offense.
But we’ll start in England, where Matthew Stafford and the Rams take on Liam Coen’s squad.
Rams (4–2) vs. Jaguars (4–2)
Spread: LAR -3
Key matchup: Matthew Stafford vs. Jaguars’ revamped pass defense
Key stat: Matthew Stafford leads the NFL with 1,684 passing yards.
Date, Time, TV: 9:30 a.m. ET Sunday, NFLN
With Puka Nacua not expected to play Sunday due to an ankle injury sustained last week in Baltimore, the Rams’ passing attack will be far more limited than usual. That’s bad news for a Los Angeles team ranking third in the league with 269.2 passing yards per game and 12.1 yards per completion.
Still, the Rams have Davante Adams on the perimeter, who, through six weeks, has 26 receptions for 396 yards and three touchdowns. Adams will need to step up while Matthew Stafford looks to increase production from Tutu Atwell, who has 164 yards on just four receptions.
Against Jacksonville, there should be room for the Rams’ receivers. The Jaguars traded corner Tyson Campbell for Greg Newsome II before Week 6, but it didn’t do much good. Sam Darnold threw for 295 yards in a 20–12 Seahawks win over the Jaguars, who have allowed 256.3 passing yards per game to rank 30th. Jacksonville also struggles to get home, generating sacks on 3.4% of drop-backs, the lowest figure outside of the Panthers.
If Stafford has time, he’ll be likely to find plenty of open targets, even without Nacua.
Verdict: Los Angeles 28, Jacksonville 22
Eagles (4–2) at Vikings (3–2)
Spread: PHI -2.5
Key matchup: Philadelphia’s third-down offense vs. Brian Flores
Key stat: The Eagles are 27th on third down at 34.7%.
Date, Time, TV: 1 p.m. ET Sunday, Fox
While the storyline going into this game will be Carson Wentz likely facing his old team, the real matchup to watch is on the other side of the ball.
Philadelphia has been an offensive disaster thus far, and that’s evident across the board but nowhere more than on third down. The Eagles are 27th in that department, converting just 34.7% of their attempts. Meanwhile, the Vikings have been dominant defensively in the metric, permitting conversions on 30.2% to rank second only to the Broncos.
For the Eagles to improve both that figure and their chances to win, they need to run the ball to get into shorter down-and-distance scenarios. After watching Saquon Barkley rush for 2,005 yards last season, he’s averaging a meager 3.4 yards per carry, down from 5.8 in 2024. As a team, Philadelphia is 28th in YPC at 3.5.
Against Minnesota, the Eagles can expect a heavy dose of pressure and disguise. Defensive coordinator Brian Flores has brought at least five rushers on 35.8% of snaps, second-highest in the league. Expect Flores to run blitz as well, hoping to force Jalen Hurts into the air. On the season, Hurts is 25th in passing yards per game (195.3) for any quarterback with at least four starts.
Verdict: Philadelphia 19, Minnesota 17
Colts (5–1) at Chargers (4–2)
Spread: LAC -1.5
Key matchup: Daniel Jones vs. Chargers’ pass defense
Key stat: The Chargers rank sixth against the pass at 177.5 yards per game.
Date, Time, TV: 4:05 p.m. ET Sunday, CBS
Daniel Jones has been the story of the year so far. Coming over from the Vikings’ practice squad on a one-year deal, Jones has turned into Cinderella without the threat of midnight, throwing for 1,502 yards and eight touchdowns while helping the Colts to a league-best 5–1 record.
While Jonathan Taylor is easily pacing the NFL with 603 rushing yards, Jones has been the story. And to beat the Chargers on Sunday at SoFi Stadium, he’ll have to be once more. Against Los Angeles, Jones is facing a defense which ranks third in yards per attempt (6.2), six in passing yards per game (177.5), second in QB rating (73.7), 10th in sack percentage (7.9%) and fifth in EPA per dropback (-0.013).
For Indianapolis, the key will be Jones doing enough through the air to open up rushing lanes for Taylor. Taylor has a case as the frontrunner for Offensive Player of the Year with his aforementioned yardage and seven touchdowns on the ground. But if Jones can’t find success, the Chargers can choke off the run with numbers.
This is one of the biggest tests Jones and the Colts have faced this season, and it’s a game that could have wide-reaching playoff implications a few months from now.
Verdict: Indianapolis 23, Los Angeles 20
Commanders (3–3) at Cowboys (2–3–1)
Spread: WSH -2.5
Key matchup: Washington’s run game vs. Dallas’s front seven
Key stat: The Cowboys have allowed 411.7 yards per game, worst in the NFL.
Date, Time, TV: 4:25 p.m. ET Sunday, Fox
Can the Cowboys stop anyone? It’s an open question.
This week, Dallas will try to contain Washington. The Commanders are a .500 team with an above-average offense in terms of yards and points per game, ranking 13th and seventh, respectively, but where it really shines is running the ball. Washington has amassed 151 rushing yards per game, second only to the Falcons.
Of course, it’s a multi-faceted ground game for the Commanders, including rookie back Jacory Croskey-Merritt and quarterback Jayden Daniels. The duo has combined for 520 rushing yards (despite Daniels missing two games) on 5.4 yards per carry. In their Week 5 win over the Chargers, they went for 150 rushing yards and two touchdowns, including Croskey-Merritt notching his first 100-yard game.
Conversely, Dallas is a mess on defense, ranking dead last in allowing 411.7 yards per game, while being 29th against the run. The Cowboys watched former teammate Rico Dowdle torch them in a 30–27 loss in Week 6 to the Panthers as he ran for 183 yards. Two weeks prior, Josh Jacobs had 86 rushing yards and two touchdowns in a 40–40 tie against the Packers.
Washington isn’t dynamic in the air, relying almost solely on Terry McLaurin when healthy. But against Dallas, the Commanders might not be forced into worrying about that problem.
Verdict: Commanders 34, Cowboys 29
Buccaneers (5–1) at Lions (4–2)
Spread: DET -5.5
Key matchup: Tampa Bay’s banged-up receivers vs. Detroit’s banged-up secondary
Key stat: The Buccaneers will likely be without their top four receivers on Monday.
Date, Time, TV: 7 p.m. ET Monday, ESPN
One of the best games of the year might come down to who is left standing.
Coming into the weekend, both the Buccaneers and Lions are significantly injured. Tampa Bay could be without its top four receivers on Monday night, including Mike Evans (hamstring), Emeka Egbuka (hamstring), Jalen McMillan (neck) and Chris Godwin (ankle). Running back Bucky Irving has also missed the past two games with foot and shoulder injuries and could be out once again.
However, the counterparts in Detroit have similar issues. Last Sunday in a 30–17 loss to the Chiefs, Detroit was without corners Avonte Maddox (hamstring), D.J. Reed (hamstring) and Terrion Arnold (shoulder). Reed is on injured reserve while Arnold is almost certainly out at least another week. Then there’s Pro Bowl safety Brian Branch, who is suspended for Monday night after punching Kansas City receiver JuJu Smith-Schuster immediately following the game.
Incredibly, the Buccaneers still rank fifth in EPA per dropback (0.293) while Mayfield is fourth in passing yards (1,539) with 12 touchdowns against one interception. Mayfield is a top MVP candidate while relying heavily on wideout Sterling Shepard and tight end Cade Otton.
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This article was originally published on www.si.com as Key Matchups, Predictions for the Commanders-Cowboys NFC East Showdown and More.
