There are few things more entertaining than the playoff picture shifting before finally coming together.
This weekend, we should see continued madness with a dollop of clarity. On Saturday, the Chargers will host the Texans in a meaningful affair for both sides. If Los Angeles wins, it will guarantee a winner-take-all game in Week 18 at Denver with the winner of Chargers-Broncos capturing the AFC West crown.
In the late game on Saturday, Green Bay will host Baltimore with the Packers trying to clinch a playoff spot. If Green Bay wins, it’ll guarantee itself a third consecutive playoff berth to start off the Jordan Love era.
On Sunday, there’s a trio of games to watch, including the Panthers trying to beat the Seahawks, while Seattle is aiming to stay atop the NFC picture. In Buffalo, the Bills will continue their chase of the Patriots in the AFC East with their game against the NFC East champion Eagles. Then, on Sunday night, the Bears and 49ers will square off with both teams eyeing their divisions and a potential path to the NFC’s top seed.
But we start at SoFi Stadium, where the Chargers and Texans will kick off the weekend.
Texans (10–5) at Chargers (11–4)
Spread: Chargers -1.5
Key matchup: Will Anderson Jr. and Danielle Hunter vs. Chargers’ tackles
Key stat: Justin Herbert wasn’t sacked in Dallas last week.
Date, Time, TV: 4:30 p.m. ET Saturday, NFLN
If the Texans are going to beat the Chargers on the road, the law firm of Anderson and Hunter will likely have a big say.
Houston has enjoyed one of the league’s top pass rushes, with Will Anderson Jr. and Danielle Hunter combining for 24.5 sacks through 15 games. Facing Los Angeles’s patchwork line, featuring a pair of backup tackles with Joe Alt (ankle) and Rashawn Slater (knee) out for the season, it seems a no-brainer that Houston will get home.
However, the Chargers did an excellent job protecting quarterback Justin Herbert in a 34–17 win over the Cowboys last weekend. Herbert wasn’t sacked and took only five hits while throwing for 300 yards and two touchdowns in the team’s 11th win of the season.
Herbert has been sacked 49 times this season, more than any quarterback outside of the Raiders’ Geno Smith and Titans rookie Cam Ward. If the Texans can get home, it’ll be a long day for the Chargers, but recent results indicate that’s not a sure thing.
Verdict: Houston 20, L.A. Chargers 18
Ravens (7–8) at Packers (9-5-1)
Spread: Packers -2.5
Key matchup: Baltimore’s secondary receivers vs. Green Bay’s defense
Key stat: The Packers have allowed three 100-yard receivers in 2025.
Date, Time, TV: 8 p.m. ET Saturday, NBC
Zay Flowers is a star. But if the Packers can limit him in the way they did Justin Jefferson and Amon-Ra St. Brown this year, can anyone else beat them?
Flowers is having an excellent campaign in his third NFL season, catching 78 passes for 1,043 yards and two touchdowns. However, he’s had very little help on the outside, with Rashod Bateman and DeAndre Hopkins providing minimal returns.
Through 15 games, Flowers has almost double the receptions and yardage of Bateman and Hopkins combined, with 40 catches and 547 yards between them. At tight end, the combo of Mark Andrews and Isaiah Likely has more name recognition than on-field value, totaling 64 receptions and 628 yards.
This season, only George Pickens, Jameson Williams and Courtland Sutton have gone over the century mark against Jeff Hafley’s defense. If Flowers is limited to an underwhelming day, is there anybody on the Ravens who can make Green Bay pay? Flowers has failed to lead Baltimore in receiving yards only twice in 2025, with both times ending in defeats.
Verdict: Green Bay 24, Baltimore 21
Seahawks (12–3) at Panthers (8–7)
Spread: Seahawks - 7.5
Key matchup: Bryce Young vs. Mike Macdonald
Key stat: Young has never faced Macdonald in his three-year career.
Date, Time, TV: 1 p.m. ET Sunday, CBS
Bryce Young hasn’t been special, but he’s heating up.
Over his past three games, Young has thrown six touchdowns without an interception while averaging 7.3 yards per attempt. As a result, Carolina has beaten the Rams and Buccaneers, helping the Panthers improve to 8–7 and amass a one-game lead over Tampa Bay in the NFC South.
Now, Young gets a new test in Seahawks coach and defensive mastermind Mike Macdonald. This is the first time the two have faced each other in the NFL, with Young getting the game at home and Macdonald having a long week to prepare after playing on Thursday night.
Seattle has been tough on opposing passers, ranking ninth in EPA per dropback against (-0.12) and 13th in sack percentage (6.7%). However, the secondary is banged up with corners Riq Woolen and Coby Bryant both fighting knee injuries, while star rookie safety Nick Emmanwori is in the concussion protocol.
The Panthers would clinch their first playoff berth since 2017 with a victory and a Buccaneers’ loss to the Dolphins in Week 17. To get there, Young will need to avoid mistakes, as Carolina is 5–2 when he doesn’t throw an interception.
Verdict: Seattle 27, Carolina 22
Eagles (10–5) at Bills (11–4)
Spread: Bills -2.5
Key matchup: Saquon Barkley vs. Buffalo’s front seven
Key stat: The Bills have allowed 5.4 YPC, 31st in the league.
Date, Time, TV: 4:25 p.m. ET Sunday, Fox
Last year, no one could stop Saquon Barkley. This year, he has struggled to do much of anything.
On Sunday, Barkley will get one of his most advantageous matchups of the season against the Bills, who rank 31st in the league with 5.4 yards per carry against. The only team worse is the Giants, who Barkley rushed for 208 yards against in two games on 8.0 YPC.
Interestingly enough, both sides are trending somewhat against what we’ve seen all year. Buffalo has limited two of its past four opponents to under 70 yards rushing, although the Browns amassed 160 rushing yards and a touchdown on 5.2 YPC last Sunday. Meanwhile, Barkley has only three 100-yard games this year, but two have come in the past three weeks against the Chargers and Commanders.
With both cold weather and the playoffs in the offing, the Bills and Eagles are both motivated to fine-tune their rushing situations. For Buffalo, it’s about slowing down potent attacks, while Philadelphia is looking to get Barkley back to his superstar ways.
Verdict: Buffalo 29, Philadelphia 26
Bears (11–4) at 49ers (11–4)
Spread: 49ers -2.5
Key matchup: Kyle Shanahan’s scheme vs. Chicago’s defense
Key stat: The Bears’ defense is bottom 10 in rushing and passing yards per attempt.
Date, Time, TV: 8:20 p.m. ET Sunday, NBC
What would you like to do against the Bears? Their defense is in the bottom 10 in rushing yards per carry, net yards per pass attempt and opponent’s yards per play.
None of this is good news against 49ers coach Kyle Shanahan, one of the smartest offensive minds in the game. Shanahan has one of the league's best-designed attacks, even if much of it revolves around Christian McCaffrey and not much else.
McCaffrey leads the 49ers in both rushing (1,039) and receiving (849) yards, helping San Francisco position itself as a playoff team needing two more wins to not only earn the NFC West crown but home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. For Chicago, the top job will be limiting McCaffrey before trying to contain tight end George Kittle, who has totaled 599 yards across 10 games.
The 49ers don’t have elite offensive personnel beyond McCaffrey and the aging Kittle, who turned 32 in October. Yet, without past stars such as Brandon Aiyuk and Deebo Samuel, San Francisco finds itself in the midst of the Super Bowl chase, aiming to reach its fifth conference championship game appearance in the past seven seasons.
More NFL on Sports Illustrated
- NFL Week 17 Picks From the MMQB Staff: Surging 49ers and Bears Meet in Prime Time
- Broncos vs. Chiefs: Three Bold Predictions for Christmas Night’s AFC West Battle in K.C.
- Ranking the Six NFL Quarterbacks Playing on Christmas Day 2025
- Lions vs. Vikings: Three Bold Predictions For Christmas Day’s NFC North Matchup
This article was originally published on www.si.com as Key Matchups, Predictions for Texans-Chargers and More NFL Week 17 Games.
