The leaves are falling. The standings are shaking. Football is warming up.
There is a litany of juicy matchups in Week 10. Perhaps none is bigger than the Monday night clash between the Packers and Eagles at Lambeau Field, with both teams fighting to eventually earn home-field advantage in the NFC playoffs.
The game is a rematch of last season’s wild-card round, when Philadelphia stifled Green Bay in a 22–10 win. However, this contest is in Packers country with Jordan Love & Co. trying to bounce back from a stunning loss to the visiting Panthers last week.
Elsewhere, Aaron Rodgers and Justin Herbert will meet on Sunday night at SoFi Stadium, while J.J. McCarthy tries to take down Lamar Jackson and the Ravens for Minnesota’s second consecutive upset victory. Lastly, the Rams and 49ers meet for their rematch after San Francisco pulled a prime-time victory in Week 5, and the Patriots and Buccaneers clash in Tampa Bay for a date between a pair of division leaders.
But we start in Minnesota, where the Vikings and Ravens are both trying to climb back into their respective playoff pictures.
Ravens (3–5) at Vikings (4–4)
Spread: Baltimore -4.5
Key matchup: Minnesota’s run defense vs. Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry
Key stat: Baltimore averages a league-best 5.2 YPC.
Date, Time, TV: 1 p.m. ET Sunday, Fox
Everything about the Minnesota run defense is average. The Vikings rank 16th in yards per carry against (4.2) and 17th in total rushing yardage (978). They’re also 21st in EPA per rush against (-0.047).
To beat the Ravens, Minnesota’s front will have to be much better than average. Baltimore has struggled at times offensively this season with quarterback Lamar Jackson down for three games. Still, the Ravens are tied for first at 5.2 YPC behind the deadly combination of Jackson and running back Derrick Henry.
Despite being in his age-31 season, Henry is still averaging 4.9 YPC while amassing 629 yards, 29 first downs and six touchdowns on the ground. With Jackson now back to help create conflict for defenders on run-pass options, Henry should only grow more effective as the weather turns colder.
For Vikings defensive coordinator Brian Flores, the plan is typically to blitz and force quarterbacks to throw into one-on-one situations. Minnesota ranks second in blitz rate at 41.4%, something Flores could lean into with Baltimore, which has only one top-end receiving threat in Zay Flowers.
The scary part? If Henry or Jackson beat the blitz with their legs, look out.
Verderame’s Verdict: Ravens 27, Vikings 19
Patriots (7–2) at Buccaneers (6–2)
Spread: Tampa Bay -2.5
Key matchup: Drake Maye vs. the Bucs’ blitz
Key stat: Tampa Bay blitzes 32.5% of snaps, the seventh-highest rate.
Date, Time, TV: 1 p.m. ET Sunday, CBS
Drake Maye is playing like an MVP candidate. Now he gets to face Todd Bowles.
Tampa Bay is 6–2 and coming off its bye week, giving Bowles an extra week to prepare for the second-year wunderkind. In Tampa, everyone can expect the defensive-minded coach to blitz early and often, something he’s done all season. According to NFL Pro, the Buccaneers are blitzing 32.5% of defensive snaps, seventh-most in the NFL.
However, that could be a risky proposition against Maye. Through nine games this season, Maye is actually posting a higher EPA per dropback against blitzes (+0.29) than he is against three- and four-man rushes (+0.19). If that holds, there could be an opportunity for some big plays, including downfield, where Maye shines. On passes of 20-plus air yards this year, Maye is 15-of-22 for 513 yards with five touchdowns and zero interceptions.
The question is whether Bowles believes he needs to blitz to get pressure. New England has been a great surprise this year, but the Patriots have surrendered 34 sacks, second-fewest in the league behind only the one-win Titans’ 38. Tampa Bay is fourth in pressure rate (39.8%) and 10th in sack percentage (7.6%), giving Bowles some reason to see if his front four can do the job without help.
Verderame’s Verdict: Buccaneers 26, Patriots 21
Rams (6–2) at 49ers (6–3)
Spread: L.A. Rams -4.5
Key matchup: Third down between the Rams’ defense and Niners’ offense
Key stat: San Francisco is third-ranked on third down at 47.2%.
Date, Time, TV: 4:25 p.m. ET Sunday, Fox
The best rivalry on the Golden Coast gets renewed on Sunday, and it’s going to come down to a specific situation.
This year, the 49ers have been incredible at overcoming injuries, whether it’s to linebacker Fred Warner, edge rusher Nick Bosa, receivers Ricky Pearsall and Brandon Aiyuk, tight end George Kittle or quarterback Brock Purdy. A big reason why is San Francisco’s third-down efficiency, ranking third by converting 47.2% of opportunities.
On Sunday, the 49ers will have one of their stiffest tests. With first place in the NFC West on the line, San Francisco welcomes in the Rams, who are 6–2 and rank second defensively on third down, permitting conversions just 33.0% of the time.
Also of note, only the Chargers have faced more third downs than the 49ers, who have attempted 121 conversions. As a result, San Francisco has run the most plays (612) of any team. If the Niners can convert, they control the clock and keep MVP candidate Matthew Stafford off the field.
Verderame’s Verdict: Rams 24, 49ers 20
Steelers (5–3) at Chargers (6–3)
Spread: L.A. Chargers -3
Key matchup: Los Angeles’s offensive line vs. Pittsburgh’s pass rush
Key stat: Justin Herbert has been hit 52 times, most in the NFL.
Date, Time, TV: 8:20 p.m. ET Sunday, NBC
The Steelers are a terrible defensive football team. They rank 30th overall and 32nd against the pass, allowing 278.3 passing yards per game. They’re also 24th in EPA per play at 0.067. That said, Pittsburgh has stayed afloat because it has more takeaways (16) than anybody else in the AFC, while also creating havoc with its pass rush.
That’s bad news for Justin Herbert and the Chargers. Herbert is now without both starting tackles for the season, with Joe Alt (ankle) and Rashawn Slater (knee) sidelined. Even with Alt, the line has been a mess with Herbert taking the third-most sacks (28), along with the most hits (52) and pressures (104). Meanwhile, the Steelers are 11th in sack rate (7.1%), sixth in blitz rate (33.4%) and tied for third in sacks (27).
How much has pressure impacted Herbert this year? Per NFL Pro, Herbert has an EPA of +77.4 while completing 79.9% of his attempts when not pressured. When under duress, his EPA is -51.5 and he’s hitting just 48.4% of his throws. With no Slater and Alt against T.J. Watt, Alex Highsmith and Cam Heyward, it could be a long night for the Chargers.
Verderame’s Verdict: Steelers 23, Chargers 19
Eagles (6–2) at Packers (5–2–1)
Spread: Green Bay -2.5
Key matchup: Packers’ edge rushers vs. Jordan Mailata and Lane Johnson
Key stat: Philadelphia is tied for seventh at 7.8 yards per attempt.
Date, Time, TV: 8:15 p.m. ET Monday, ESPN
Want to know who’s going to win this heavyweight matchup? Watch the edges.
Philadelphia might have the league’s top tackle tandem in Lane Johnson and Jordan Mailata, with the pairing ranked 18th and ninth, respectively, by Pro Football Focus. On the year, Johnson has allowed zero sacks and zero quarterback hits, while Mailata has surrendered one sack and three QB hits.
Against the Packers, that combo will be threatened by Micah Parsons and Rashan Gary. Parsons has been a menace since coming over in a preseason trade from the Cowboys. He ranks fifth in pass rush win rate (23.4%) among edge rushers while having seven sacks and the fourth-most hurries (28). Gary is also starring opposite Parsons with seven sacks and 14 quarterback hits.
If the Eagles can keep quarterback Jalen Hurts clean, there are matchups to win downfield with receivers A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith. But it won’t be easy with Parsons moving all over the line and Gary screaming off the corners.
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This article was originally published on www.si.com as Key Matchups, Predictions for Packers-Eagles and more NFL Week 10 Games.
