Sen. Elizabeth Warren recently intensified the political heat in Washington by labeling expected Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh a “sock puppet” for the executive branch. Her quip echoes concerns that with Warsh at the helm, the central bank could lose its independence.
While the “sock puppet” label makes for easy headlines, the structural reality of the Federal Reserve’s Board of Governors presents a far more complex mess for market participants to navigate.
The Fed has gathered for its two-day meeting, from April 28-29. And global financial markets are bracing for more than just a rate decision. This will in all probability be the final press conference for Jerome Powell as chair of the Federal Reserve.
However, there’s a rare source of potential market volatility that will not appear in the routine policy statement. There’s a unique institutional quirk that could see Powell remain in the building long after his successor, Kevin Warsh, is sworn in.
How Powell Could Remain at the Fed, Just Not as Board Chair
By law, the chair of the Federal Reserve is appointed for a four-year term, but their seat on the Board of Governors lasts for 14 years. Powell’s term as a governor does not expire until Jan. 31, 2028.
While modern tradition dictates that an outgoing chair resigns their board seat entirely, Powell has signaled he may break that precedent. His rationale: the need to protect the institution’s independence amidst recent legal friction with the Department of Justice.
Powell has suggested he could stay on as a regular governor, which could create a “shadow chair” scenario. That is, Warsh would lead the FOMC, but his predecessor would still sit across the table, holding a vote and a significant amount of sway.
Why not just exit gracefully? A potentially wide gap in opinion, on matters where it really counts.
Warsh has recently pivoted toward a more “dovish” (lower rates) stance, arguing that the massive concentration of AI stocks in the S&P 500 Index ($SPX) is a sign of a historic productivity boom. If that’s the case, he reasons the Fed can lower rates without fueling inflation. Talk about a market curveball!
Powell’s term has been relatively more “hawkish” in that he’s much more concerned about the potential for higher inflation. The Iran War’s lifting of energy prices only adds fuel to that argument, literally and figuratively.
That table above shows that the rates the Fed actually sets are still mild, based on this century’s history so far. There was a period of near-zero rates, but we have not seen upper single digits or double digits in a very long time.
If this leads to a deadlock on the FOMC board, just as the market is pricing in a Warsh-led easing cycle, look out. For those looking for a longshot on their bingo card for what could roil the stock market this year, this is one to mark down.
In a worst-case scenario, a Warsh Fed would drop rates and inflation would continue to elevate, or get an oil-induced “bounce” higher. That would turn this from a puppet show into something potentially even more damaging: stagflation – a stagnating economy combined with stubbornly high inflation.
Rob Isbitts created the ROAR Score, based on his 40+ years of technical analysis experience. ROAR helps DIY investors manage risk and create their own portfolios. For Rob’s written research, check out ETFYourself.com.
