At No. 1, there’s Lightning stalwart Andrei Vasilevskiy.
At No. 2, there’s Kevin Lankinen.
That’s how the NHL goaltending leaders stand in terms of Goals Saved Above Average, which calculates the difference between a goaltender’s actual goals allowed and how many goals a league-average goalie would allow against the same shot quantity.
And that’s remarkable company for Lankinen, the Blackhawks goaltender who has arguably become hockey’s biggest breakout star of 2021.
He has a legitimate chance, if he maintains this performance level, to win the Calder Trophy as the NHL’s rookie of the year.
The 25-year-old Finn has run away with the Hawks’ lead goalie job, starting nine of the last 11 games and recording a 5-1-3 record and .933 save percentage.
He ranks first in the NHL in goaltending Point Shares — Hockey Reference’s holistic stat assessing individual contributions toward team wins — as well as second in aforementioned GSAA and fifth in save percentage.
That makes him unquestionably one of the best goaltenders, rookie or veteran, through the first quarter of the season. Only Vasilevskiy and Anaheim’s John Gibson are even close in Point Shares, and Colorado’s Philipp Grubauer — ranked third in GSAA — is nearly two goals saved behind Lankinen (Lankinen, meanwhile, is only .09 goals saved behind Vasilevskiy for first).
Most impressively, Lankinen’s immediate success hasn’t startled him at all. His innate calmness and self-confidence, combined with the support of the Hawks’ team leaders, makes him come across like a leader himself.
“We’ve played a lot of hockey against really good teams here,” he said Tuesday, shortly after saving 34 of 35 shots in the Hawks’ 2-1 overtime win against the Stars. “We’ve still got a lot of young players who are just going to get better from here.
“Gaining confidence every single day and every experience is a new one. We’re on the right path, and we’ve just got to keep working hard because we’re a hard-working team.”
Understandably nowhere to be found on the season-opening Calder Trophy odds list, Lankinen has surged to sixth on the leaderboard with 10-to-1 odds, per Sports Betting Dime.
The opening month wasn’t particularly prolific for rookies in general, helping Lankinen’s case.
Only Minnesota’s Kirill Kaprizov has lived up to expectations among the projected top contenders, and his nine points in 11 games aren’t earth-shattering. The Rangers’ Alexis Lafrieniere has one point in 11 games — Lankinen, who earned an assist Tuesday, now has as many points as him — and Ottawa’s Tim Stutzle has struggled defensively despite his six points.
Hawks forward Pius Suter (eight points) currently ranks second to Kaprizov in rookie scoring, emphasizing the milquetoast nature of this year’s race. Suter has been good, sure, but nothing spectacular.
That opens the door for a goaltender like Lankinen to legitimately vie for the trophy — something that hasn’t happened since Steve Mason in 2009.
Last year, Columbus’ Elvis Merzlikins and New Jersey’s Mackenzie Blackwood finished fifth and sixth, respectively. Neither boasted the combination of big workload and great results that Lankinen likely will: Merzlikins had a .923 save percentage but started fewer than half of his team’s games, while Blackwood was the Devils’ clear No. 1 but posted only a .915 save percentage.
The case of Matt Murray in 2017 is more concerning: Murray made 47 starts and went 32-10-4 with a .923 save percentage, yet finished fourth in Calder voting behind Auston Matthews, Patrik Laine and Zach Werenski.
Still, this 2021 class — as long as Lafreniere continues to underperform — doesn’t include anyone like Matthews.
And Lankinen’s out-of-the-blue emergence adds a storybook narrative to his Calder campaign that Murray, who won 15 playoff games and the Stanley Cup the year before his official “rookie” regular season, had already expended.
With every passing start, Lankinen’s candidacy looks better and better.
