There is still significant movement necessary, but the past two days have seen the biggest _ if still incremental _ steps toward an agreement between Major League Baseball owners and players to conduct a baseball season in 2020.
Two sources on each side, all of whom either have been directly involved in or briefed on talks between the sides and spoke on the condition of anonymity, were confident enough Monday to predict the season will probably start in July. None of them had been willing to do so before Monday.
While there had been some optimism about the likelihood of a '20 season expressed by people on both sides before Monday, it was almost entirely based in the belief that not having one would be catastrophic to the game.
It is that concern _ that fans would become angry and/or apathetic if a lack of an agreement left MLB dark for 17 months _ that likely prompted the league to make known its latest potential move and that could spur further good-faith efforts.
What could be considered MLB's unofficial counter Monday to the MLB Players Association's official proposal Sunday was both a cut and an addition.
Viewed in the most optimistic light, MLB is now expressing willingness to pay players their pro rata salaries _ but for a season as brief as 50 games.
Viewed more cynically, it is either a threat or a negotiating tactic.
In response to the union's contention that a March agreement between the sides guarantees players their prorated salaries, MLB is asserting what it believes is Commissioner Rob Manfred's right outlined in the agreement to set the parameters of a season schedule that has been altered by the COVID-19 pandemic.
This possibility of a shorter season with full prorated pay was first reported by ESPN's Jeff Passan on Monday and confirmed by two sources.
The number of games has not been determined, but one management source called the idea of a season around that length viable because it cuts the owners' losses.
MLB told the MLBPA last month teams would lose $640,000 on average for every game played without fans if players were paid prorated salaries, according to a document obtained by the Associated Press last month.
That would equate to a loss of $52.5 million per team over 82 games, the length of the season proposed by MLB last week. It would be a projected loss of almost $73 million over 114 games, which is what the union proposed Sunday. Over 50 games, the loss would be $32 million, according to the owners' figures.
Owners' salary obligations would be $2.1 billion for an 82-game season and $1.29 billion for 50 games.
In its proposal for an 82-game season, MLB proposed a pay structure in which the players would incur larger cuts the higher their salary. Players making the league minimum would get 91% of their original per-game salary, while players near the top of the spectrum would take cuts of well more than 50% per game.
The Players Association's counter Sunday reportedly called for a 114-game season with prorated salaries. But also included were concessions that created the opportunity for greater revenue, such as expanded playoffs in 2020 and '21, a potential offseason All-Star game and Home Run Derby and enhanced in-game features. The union also offered that some of the highest-paid players could have portions of their salaries deferred in the event the postseason was canceled due to a renewed COVID-19 outbreak. The union had previously postured it would steadfastly reject deferrals.
In addition to their contentions about the financial infeasibility of paying prorated salaries for 114 games, MLB's concerns center around what it considers the likelihood of a surge in COVID-19 cases in the late fall that could cause the cancellation of the playoffs. Based on projections from the medical personnel and government officials with which it has consulted, MLB believes the World Series must conclude by early November.
The union is expected to balk at a season as short as 50 games, but that won't surprise owners. After several weeks of posturing and bickering and standing still, it at least feels like a negotiation could be underway.
