Will the Ettumanur constituency witness a re-run of the 1987 Assembly elections? This is a widely speculated question ever since Lathika Subash, a distraught former Mahila Congress leader who recently quit the party, entered the poll scene here as an independent. A closer look at its electoral history suggests that Ettumanur may not hesitate to look beyond party preferences while sending its representative to the State Assembly.
The victory of George Joseph Podipara in 1987, a former Congress leader who contested as an independent, stands as a case in point. And when events have now conspired to set the stage for a similar battle here after 34 years, there is no wonder that the United Democratic Front and the Left Democratic Front are straining every nerve for the crucial votes.
After a two-decade long reign by the the Kerala Congress(M) , the seat swayed to the Left through the CPI(M) leader Suresh Kurup in 2011 and has remained with it ever since. During the period, the Left coalition made significant inroads across the constituency and captured several of the local bodies in the process. Now, with the KC(M) in its fold, the LDF seeks to assert its dominance over the seat and has fielded one of its strongest leader, V.N. Vasavan, to hold the fort.
Anti-incumbency factor
The UDF, on the other hand, has overcome much of the initial hiccups over the selection of candidate and could cover much of the ground through systematic campaigning. It counts on the anti-incumbency factor and a high-voltage campaign to work in its favour, besides the considerable clout its candidate, Prince Lukose, wields across the region.
The UDF, however, is not free from worries as the presence of Ms. Subash, a much popular figure in the region, threatens to split its traditional vote bank.
The NDA, which secured 27,540 votes in 2016, expects a major improvement in its vote share and has fielded the BJP leader T.N. Harikumar. But as to how far the coalition would be able to put up a united show, especially in view of the strained relationship between the BJP and the Bharatiya Dharma Jana Sena (BDJS), a constituent of the NDA, remains to be seen.
Among the key poll planks raised by the leading coalitions include development, tourism and access to safe drinking water.
Ms. Subash, meanwhile, has made ‘women pride’ a key pillar of her campaign. Of the seven local bodies in the Assembly segment, the UDF holds power in the Ettumanur municipality and two panchayats, while the remaining four are with the LDF.
