As the heat of campaign battles outstrips the summer heat in Kottayam, the question being asked is whether the Left Democratic Front’s gains in the region are far more durable than just a local body election.
Emboldened by the entry of Kerala Congress (M) into its fold, the Left coalition has laid out an ambitious expansion plan for the rubber heartland this time. The United Democratic Front, on the other hand, counts on a consistent yet narrow margin to maintain the upper hand once again.
The National Democratic Alliance, meanwhile, hopes to align the electorate in at least one seat around a choice other than the UDF and the LDF.
As electioneering in Kottayam enters its final stretch, several of the issues that were in the focus initially have now taken a backseat. The period, in which the parties kept up their withering attack on one another, also saw a battery of of national-level politicians including the likes of Amit Shah and Rahul Gandhi, hitting the campaign trail in person.
An unexpected rebel
Starting with the high-profile battle in Pala, the poll scape in Kottayam has witnessed several twists and turns with the entry of Lathika Subash as a Congress rebel and the heckling of P.C. George in Erattupetta further stirring up the scene. And as against routine agendas of agrarian and rural development, issues like the attack on nuns by alleged Sangh Parivar activists in Uttar Pradesh and the unending war of words between the Nair Service Society and the LDF over the Sabarimala issue have come up to dominate the political discourse.
Among the nine Assembly segments, the fight between Jose K. Mani and Mani C. Kappan in Pala still remains to be the most keenly watched contest. The poll scene in Poonjar, meanwhile, is witnessing a playback of the 2016 elections with Mr. George, the sitting legislator, locked in a bitter battle with the UDF and LDF candidates. The ground situation, however, appears to be starkly different this time with a section of locals, who used to be a trusted vote bank for Mr. George, openly coming out against his ‘hate-speeches.’
The fight in Vaikom will be watched for setting the stage for an all-women battle while in Ettumanur, the entry of a woman, Ms. Subash, appears to have complicated the UDF’s calculations. The Congress, meanwhile, counts on winning the sitting seats of Kottayam and Puthupally without much fuss.
The stance of the Church and the Hindu upper castes are expected to be most crucial in Changanassery and Kaduthuruthy, where the two Kerala Congress factions have squared up to each other while in Poonjar, the consolidation of Muslim votes is expected to be the deciding factor.
NDA’s target
Banking on the KC(M) support, the LDF seeks to tilt the trend its favour in at least four seats other than the sitting seats of Vaikom and Ettumanur. The NDA, meanwhile, hopes to stage a major upset in a couple of seats and of these, Kanjirappally appears to top its priority list.
No matter the direction to which Kottayam will swing this Assembly election, the election across the segments here are worth watching to assess whether the region, long known for its pro-UDF position, will make a noticeable shift to the Left this time.
