LEXINGTON, Ky. — The biggest weekend of races on the Kentucky Derby trail provided confirmation of the reigning champion of this 3-year-old class, the coming out party for a possible future star, and one of the most shocking upsets in recent Derby prep history.
Essential Quality endured a thrilling stretch duel to win the Blue Grass Stakes and go into next month’s Derby as the undefeated and presumptive favorite. Rock Your World moved from the turf to the dirt and looked spectacular in winning the Santa Anita Derby, a race that was missing top West Coast star Life Is Good, who was removed from the Derby trail due to injury. And Bourbonic — a 72-1 shot — came out of nowhere to win the Wood Memorial for trainer Todd Pletcher, who’s suddenly planning for another Derby with several potential starters.
Here’s a look at our updated rankings for the May 1 race (with the latest odds provided by the William Hill sportsbook):
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1. CONCERT TOUR
Last week’s ranking: No. 1
Odds: 6-1
Trainer: Bob Baffert
Regular jockey: Joel Rosario
Pedigree: Street Sense — Purse Strings by Tapit
Having not yet run his final Derby prep, Concert Tour stays in the top spot … for now. We’ll see what he does Saturday in the Arkansas Derby, which, on paper, doesn’t look like much of a test for the son of 2007 Kentucky Derby winner Street Sense. Concert Tour has just five foes at Oaklawn Park this weekend. The biggest names among them are stablemate Hozier, who finished second behind Concert Tour in the Rebel Stakes last month, and Caddo River, who challenged Concert Tour early in that race before fading to fifth. Concert Tour could go off at 3-5 odds (or shorter) Saturday. His biggest challenge might be a return to form for Caddo River, who was actually favored in the Rebel and seen as one of the top Kentucky Derby contenders at the time of that race. Concert Tour has been training in California since his impressive Rebel Stakes win and most recently worked 6 furlongs in 1:12.80 on Saturday at Santa Anita Park.
What’s next? The Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn Park on April 10.
2. ESSENTIAL QUALITY
Last week’s ranking: No. 2
Odds: 7-2
Trainer: Brad Cox
Regular jockey: Luis Saez
Pedigree: Tapit — Delightful Quality by Elusive Quality
The reigning champ of this 3-year-old class checked the final box on his way to Churchill Downs on Saturday with a gritty victory in the Blue Grass Stakes. The gray colt was unchallenged in his victory in the Southwest Stakes over a sloppy Oaklawn Park track last month — his first start of 2021 — but he had to battle throughout the Keeneland stretch with the promising Highly Motivated over the weekend, sticking his neck in front in the final strides before the finish line. Essential Quality earned a career-best 97 Beyer Speed Figure for that effort and proved his mettle as a competitor in “his first real dogfight,” as Godolphin USA president Jimmy Bell put it after the race. He’ll take a perfect 5-for-5 record into the Kentucky Derby, where his results so far and hometown connections are likely to make him the race favorite. Louisville native Brad Cox is the reigning Eclipse Award winner for top trainer, and he’s never had a Kentucky Derby starter. That changes May 1, and all eyes will be on Essential Quality, who made the trip to Churchill Downs this week to train up to Derby Day.
What’s next? The Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs on May 1.
3. ROCK YOUR WORLD
Last week’s ranking: No. 10
Odds: 8-1
Trainer: John Sadler
Regular jockey: Umberto Rispoli
Pedigree: Candy Ride — Charm the Maker by Empire Maker
The minor injury suffered last month by early Kentucky Derby favorite Life Is Good, who had dominated the West Coast prep circuit so far this year, made for a relatively wide-open Santa Anita Derby on Saturday, with a handful of contenders who looked like possible race winners. By the end of it, Rock Your World proved himself as the class of the field, getting out to an early lead, setting some pretty quick fractions, and never looking back. A winner of two starts on the turf, this was Rock Your World’s first race on the dirt after training impressively over the surface earlier in the year. Trainer John Sadler decided to take a shot at some Derby points, and it paid off big time. Rock Your World has the running style to win the Kentucky Derby and looks like he’ll be just fine with the added distance on May 1. He also earned a 100 Beyer for his Santa Anita Derby win. Unless Concert Tour (or someone else) puts up a triple-digit figure in the Arkansas Derby on Saturday, this turf-to-dirt star will take the best Beyer into the Kentucky Derby starting gate.
What’s next? The Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs on May 1.
4. KNOWN AGENDA
Last week’s ranking: 3
Odds: 7-1
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Regular jockey: Irad Ortiz Jr.
Pedigree: Curlin — Byrama by Byron
A couple of weeks ago, it looked like two-time Derby winning trainer Todd Pletcher might not have any starters for this year’s race. If that had happened, it would have been the first time in 18 years that Pletcher — with a record 55 career Derby starters — wouldn’t have been represented in the Derby starting gate. That streak will not be broken, and it appears the soon-to-be Hall of Fame trainer will have yet another “Todd Squad” at Churchill Downs this May, with Florida Derby winner Known Agenda leading the way. The son of Curlin already has three victories at 1 1/8 miles and appears to be peaking at just the right time for Pletcher, who said his emerging 3-year-old star has benefited from the addition of blinkers and is getting more comfortable running behind other horses and dealing with kickback. His Equibase Speed Figure of 112 for that Florida Derby win is the best of any Derby contender this year (and better than both of Life Is Good’s victories).
What’s next? The Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs on May 1.
5. HOT ROD CHARLIE
Last week’s ranking: No. 4
Odds: 12-1
Trainer: Doug O’Neill
Regular jockey: Joel Rosario
Pedigree: Oxbow — Indian Miss by Indian Charlie
The wait continues for Hot Rod Charlie, who will enter the Kentucky Derby on a six-week layoff from his victory in the Louisiana Derby, the first of the 100-point prep races back on March 20. Aside from Authentic’s 2020 Derby victory under different scheduling circumstances due to COVID-19, only one Kentucky Derby winner since 1956 has come off a layoff of more than five weeks. (That was Animal Kingdom, who had a six-week layoff back in 2011). The last horse to win both the Louisiana Derby and the Kentucky Derby was Grindstone in 1996. That said, Hot Rod Charlie is another colt who appears to be peaking at the right time for a two-time Derby winning trainer, Doug O’Neill, who had his top 3-year-old contender back on the work tab this past weekend. Hot Rod Charlie went 4 furlongs in :49.40 at Santa Anita Park on Saturday in his first workout since the Louisiana Derby win.
What’s next? The Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs on May 1.
6. HIGHLY MOTIVATED
Last week’s ranking: No. 9
Odds: 15-1
Trainer: Chad Brown
Regular jockey: Javier Castellano
Pedigree: Into Mischief — Strong Incentive by Warrior’s Reward
Moving up in this week’s rankings is the colt who nearly pulled off the upset at Keeneland over the weekend. It looked like Highly Motivated’s 2021 debut — a disappointing third in the Gotham Stakes last month — might’ve been a fluke: a combination of a poor start, a long layoff and simply needing a race to get back into form. The Blue Grass Stakes provided more evidence for that theory. Taking advantage of a field with zero early speed, Highly Motivated hustled right to the front and — for a time in the stretch — looked like he was going to hold off heavy favorite Essential Quality for the victory. It was a promising first start around two turns for Highly Motivated, who now looks to be one of the top contenders for this year’s Derby. Did he leave enough in the tank to build on that Blue Grass run? Or did the stretch duel take too much out of him? If he has more to show May 1 — and the added distance isn’t an issue — he could very well be the Derby winner.
What’s next? The Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs on May 1.
7. MEDINA SPIRIT
Last week’s ranking: No. 5
Odds: 15-1
Trainer: Bob Baffert
Regular jockey: John Velazquez
Pedigree: Protonico — Mongolian Changa by Brilliant Speed
Talk about tough luck. Just when stablemate Life Is Good gets knocked off the trail — opening up an avenue for Medina Spirit to break through — another California star emerges. Medina Spirit couldn’t catch Life Is Good in either of their two matchups earlier this year, including a loss by 8 lengths in the San Felipe Stakes last month. A medical issue that could negatively affect the colt’s breathing was discovered after that race, however, and — with Life Is Good off the trail — it looked like the Santa Anita Derby could be Medina Spirit’s breakthrough opportunity. Instead, Rock Your World shows up and puts away the field on the front end. Medina Spirit still finished second as the 4-5 favorite, and no one can question his grit. He’s obviously a talented colt and has run some good races. Still, unless he takes a step forward or Rock Your World takes a step back — or the California horses are just that much better than the rest this year — Medina Spirit seems to be just a cut below some others going into the Derby.
What’s next? The Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs on May 1.
8. MIDNIGHT BOURBON
Last week’s ranking: N/A
Odds: 24-1
Trainer: Steve Asmussen
Regular jockey: Joe Talamo
Pedigree: Tiznow — Catch the Moon by Malibu Moon
OK, it’s time to reward consistency and move Midnight Bourbon onto this list. The son of Tiznow won the Grade 3 Lecomte Stakes to kick off the Fair Grounds prep circuit. Since then, he’s finished a close third in the Risen Star Stakes and second in the Louisiana Derby — putting up 96 Beyers in both of those races. He certainly has the results to be placed in the top half of Derby contenders, and — with the 1 1/4-mile Derby distance a question mark for all involved until they actually run it — would anyone really be surprised to see Midnight Bourbon emerge as a factor in the Churchill Downs stretch on May 1? Hall of Fame trainer Steve Asmussen holds the record with 21 Derby starters without a victory in the race. He’s had some good ones that just missed — Curlin and Gun Runner, among them — and Midnight Bourbon shouldn’t be overlooked.
What’s next? The Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs on May 1.
9. MANDALOUN
Last week’s ranking: N/A
Odds: 30-1
Trainer: Brad Cox
Regular jockey: Florent Geroux
Pedigree: Into Mischief — Brooch by Empire Maker
With some notable defections from the Kentucky Derby trail and some buzzed-about 3-year-olds who failed to live up to the hype, let’s welcome Mandaloun back to the top 10. Not too long ago, this colt looked like one of the stars of the 3-year-old class. His February win in the Risen Star Stakes was mighty impressive, enough to make him the 6-5 favorite in a talented Louisiana Derby field next time out. There, he finished sixth. There was no troubled trip. No injury of any kind. “No excuse really at all,” trainer Brad Cox said recently. Exactly what happened to Mandaloun at Fair Grounds that day remains a mystery. But the type of talent he flashed earlier this year doesn’t simply disappear. And Cox says he’s looked “amazing” and has been training well at Churchill Downs recently. We’ll take him at his word. A couple of stats against him, though: no Kentucky Derby winner has finished worse than fifth in his last start before the Derby, according to Churchill Downs records that date back to 1940; and the horse that has crossed the Derby finish line first in each of the past 10 years was coming into the race off of a victory in his final prep.
What’s next? The Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs on May 1.
10. CADDO RIVER
Last week’s ranking: N/A
Odds: 50-1
Trainer: Brad Cox
Regular jockey: Florent Geroux
Pedigree: Hard Spun — Pangburn by Congrats
This is a top-10 rankings list, so, obviously, somebody needs to go in this spot. With no options jumping off the page, Caddo River is another who gets a pass for his last start. After a 10-length romp in the Smarty Jones Stakes to start his 2021 campaign, Caddo River left the Rebel Stakes starting gate as the 6-5 favorite and immediately made it clear he wanted to go after Concert Tour for the lead. Caddo River had won his previous two starts in gate-to-wire fashion — by a combined 19 1/2 lengths — and he fought jockey Florent Geroux trying to get to the similarly styled Concert Tour in first. He either expended too much energy fighting his rider in the early going or simply didn’t have enough to match up with Concert Tour to begin with. We should get a better answer on that Saturday, with Brad Cox planning to let the colt run his race this time around. “We’ll see how things go,” Cox said this week. “We’re going to try and be a little bit more involved early — more aggressive, I think, if we can. That’s really the tactics we’re going to take into the race. We’ll see if that works any different.” An important note: Caddo River likely needs to finish first or second Saturday to accrue enough points to make the Kentucky Derby field.
What’s next? The Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn Park on April 10.
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OTHER DERBY CONTENDERS
It was announced Wednesday that neither Fountain of Youth Stakes winner Greatest Honour nor UAE Derby winner Rebel’s Romance would make the trip to Churchill Downs for the Kentucky Derby. Gotham Stakes winner Weyburn is off the trail, too.
Here’s a look at some other 3-year-olds in the Derby picture (in order of Derby qualifying points and with the latest odds from the William Hill sportsbook):
— Like the King (90-1) sits third on the Derby points list following a win in the Jeff Ruby Steaks at Turfway Park, but he’ll be among the longest shots on Derby Day. The son of Palace Malice is trained by Wesley Ward and hasn’t raced on dirt since October. (He’s never won on the surface).
— Bourbonic (100-1) is sixth on the Derby points list following his shocking Wood Memorial victory, coming from last place to win by a head at the very end. His previous form suggested the 72-1 odds were spot on, and the Wood win earned a meager 89 Beyer. Still, the Calumet Farm-owned son of Bernardini will be in the Derby starting gate for trainer Todd Pletcher.
— Tampa Bay Derby winner Helium (40-1) got enough points from that race — his first in the United States after two previous starts in Canada — to make the Derby starting gate, and Mark Casse will train him up to May 1 off an eight-week layoff. His best Beyer figure so far is an 84. It was announced this week that Julien Leparoux will ride Helium in the Derby.
— It looks like Panadol (no current odds) might still make the trip to Churchill Downs following his runner-up finish in the UAE Derby, a race that has produced 15 Kentucky Derby starters over the years, with none of those horses finishing better than fifth. Panadol — a son of Flatter — would likely be among the longest shots in the field if he is entered in the Derby. Other UAE Derby alums in the past have been much more intriguing.
— Florida Derby runner-up Soup and Sandwich (45-1) is in on points and has already arrived at Churchill Downs for trainer Mark Casse. The gray son of Into Mischief — sire of last year’s Derby winner, Authentic — has early speed and plenty of promise, but he’s raced just three times in a career that began Jan. 28.
— Wood Memorial runner-up Dynamic One (125-1) will be yet another long shot for Todd Pletcher. The son of Union Rags has Smart Strike for a damsire and didn’t break his maiden until March 7, finally getting a win on the fourth try.
— Crowded Trade (125-1) finished third in the Wood Memorial after getting caught at the wire by Weyburn in the Gotham Stakes. The son of More Than Ready is trained by Chad Brown and has just three career starts, so there’s certainly room to grow. The Derby seems a major ask, however.
— Jeff Ruby Steaks runner-up Sainthood (100-1) is yet another Todd Pletcher-trained long shot who will have enough points to make the Derby. His previous start was a maiden win Feb. 13, and the Derby would be just his fourth career race.
— Rombauer (100-1) finished third in the Blue Grass Stakes and looked to be short on Derby points until some defections this week. He now sits 18th on that list with the Arkansas Derby and Lexington Stakes this weekend as the only remaining points races. The son of Twirling Candy will probably have enough points to make the Derby field, if trainer Michael McCarthy decides to give it a go. He should like the Derby distance, and he could be an intriguing long shot for the exotic tickets May 1.
— Proxy (55-1) once looked to be among the top Derby contenders but might need to pick up some more points this weekend in the Lexington Stakes at Keeneland. The son of Tapit had two runner-up finishes on the Fair Grounds prep circuit before a disappointing fourth-place showing for trainer Michael Stidham in the Louisiana Derby. He’s not lacking for talent. Saturday will be telling.
— Hidden Stash (125-1) finished fourth in the Blue Grass Stakes and sits 20th in points, though he’ll get passed up for that final qualifying spot this weekend. Still, trainer Victoria Oliver hasn’t ruled out the Derby for the son of Constitution, and another defection or two — an inevitable occurrence this time of year — could get him in the gate May 1. He’s winless in three 2021 starts but does have a victory at Churchill Downs as a 2-year-old.
— Hozier (25-1) is getting some love in the futures odds following his runner-up finish to Concert Tour in the Rebel Stakes last month, but the son of Pioneerof the Nile (American Pharoah’s sire) probably needs to finish third or better in the Arkansas Derby on Saturday to get enough Derby qualifying points to make the race. Bob Baffert trains.
