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The Guardian - UK
The Guardian - UK
Politics
Alan Travis

Ken's appeal dented by Cenotaph effect

In the end tactical voting - what might be dubbed the "Cenotaph effect" - meant it was not quite the runaway victory for Ken Livingstone that had been predicted. Nevertheless he did manage to assemble the kind of cross-party support that Tony Blair has defined as New Labour.

The breakdown of the 667,877 Londoners who gave Mr Livingstone their first preference votes shows that he managed to attract support from the entire political spectrum - although it is worth noting that only 15% of the electorate made Mr Livingstone their first preference. Overwhelmingly, these were Labour voters and he managed to win the backing of 46% of those who say they would normally vote for a Blair government.

But he also attracted significant support from the voters of other parties. More than 33% of the Liberal Democrat vote backed Mr Livingstone; more extraordinarily 24% of those who identify themselves as Conservative voters did too. This suggests that in this first presidential-style election London voters liked the idea of ditching their party allegiances and shopping around the candidates.

Some called it supermarket voting but it appears that in the final 10 days of the campaign, deeper party ties began to reassert themselves.

Mr Livingstone's victory was one truly built on his cross-party - almost anti-party - appeal but an Evening Standard/ICM poll published on 27 April, a week before the actual vote, showed his initial support from traditional Conservative and Liberal Democrat voters was even greater.

After a weekend of anti-capitalism protests culminating in the defacing of the Cenotaph, significant numbers of Liberal Democrat and Conservative voters appear to have changed their minds about voting for Mr Livingstone. It appears that this whiff of danger was enough to convince them to either sit on their hands home or vote for Mr Norris in a bid to stop Mr Livingstone.

The figures are dramatic. In the Standard/ICM poll a week before the election 47% of Liberal Democrats said they were going to back Mr Livingstone but in the end this figure slumped to 33%. He won 24% of the Conservative vote, down from 29% the week before.

There is also a sharp divide in social class. Before the election, 57% of the professional middle classes - the ABC1 voters - said they were going to vote for Mr Livingstone but in the end, this dropped to 37%. It was only among the DE manual workers that his support, at around 43%, held up.

In the London assembly elections, as in the rest of the country, the Conservatives proved that if you can get your core vote to the polls in a low turnout election, you will be able to claim success. The Tories said yesterday that their 34% share of the vote meant London was now "a Tory city." But on a dismal turnout of only 32% - 1.7m voters out of a possible 5m - it was a shaky claim.

In some outer London suburbs the turnout was five points higher than in inner London, indicating that Tory voters were more enthusiastic in going to the polls.

However, the Tory share of the vote in London was up only two points since their dismal performance in the 1997 general election, casting doubt on whether this could provide momentum for a serious Conservative challenge in the capital at next year's general election.

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