Ken Paxton's Chances of Unseating John Cornyn in Wake of Alleged Affair-Driven Divorce, According to the Betting Market

Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton's lead over Sen. John Cornyn to be the Republican candidate for Senate dropped following Paxton's alleged affair-driven divorce. (Credit: Getty Images)

Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton once seemingly held a tall lead over Sen. John Cornyn as the two race to be the Republican candidate for Senate. But following Paxton's alleged affair-driven divorce, it might now be a much closer race, according to the betting market.

Paxton's wife Angela Paxton, who is a Texas state senator, announced Thursday that she had filed for divorce after "recent discoveries" led her to determine that their marriage does not "honor God" and believed it would be best for her, her children and Ken to separate.

Ken Paxton came under scrutiny in 2023 after an alleged affair and allegations of bribery were brought up during an impeachment trial. Though the state House impeached the attorney general, he was later acquitted by the state Senate and agreed to a deal to pay nearly $300,000 in restitution in exchange for having fraud charges dropped.

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Meanwhile, the Texas attorney general appeared to suggest that "the pressures of countless political attacks and public scrutiny" was what ultimately ended their marriage in an X post Thursday.

The divorce announcement caused bettors to turn to the site Kalshi, where individuals can bet on political races. According to the site, earlier in the year, Cornyn's betting odds saw a lead over Paxton until late April, when Paxton jumped ahead.

Throughout May and June, bettors had Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton hovering around a 70% chance of winning the race for Republican candidate for Senate. But as of Friday, Paxton and Sen. John Cornyn now sit neck-and-neck, both with a 50% chance of winning. (Credit: Kalshi)

Throughout May and June, bettors had Paxton hovering around a 70% chance of winning. But as of Friday, Paxton and Cornyn now sit neck-and-neck, both with a 50% chance of winning.

Paxton's chances of winning also dropped on the betting site Polymarket, though not as much. As of Thursday night, bettors on the site believed the attorney general had about a confident 75% chance. That confidence however dropped down to 56%, compared to Cornyn's 43%, as of Friday afternoon.

As of Thursday night, bettors believed Ken Paxton had about a confident 75% chance. That confidence however dropped down 56%, compared to Sen. John Cornyn’s 43%, as of Friday afternoon. (Credit: Polymarket)

While the primary race continues, Angela Paxton's lawyers have since requested that their divorce proceedings be made private, according to court documents obtained by the Dallas Morning News. If the judge approves the motion, Ken Paxton's affair allegations will remain unconfirmed to the public.

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