Wake up to the peril. As MPs return to parliament, they should abandon that self-deluding pretence that it could never happen here in our “moderate” and “tolerant” land. On the contrary, Britain is at more risk of a populist right takeover than many of our European neighbours. With Labour in an electoral slough of despond, and the Tories looking dead already, the reptilian grin of Nigel Farage haunts the political landscape after his satisfactory summer spent stoking division and cynicism.
Our first past the post (FPTP) elections make us particularly vulnerable. As Rob Ford, professor of politics at Manchester University, notes: “This is now a Farage-friendly electoral system.” Reform UK has reached the tipping point where winning as little as 30% support in our corkscrewed lottery of a voting system could propel him into No 10, however much that appals the other 70% of voters. “It’s certainly possible” he could be prime minister, was Farage’s implausible boast, a year ago. But as the latest poll puts his party on 35% to Labour’s 20%, it keeps getting a little more credible.
As it happens, in the Commons on Tuesday, MPs will be voting on a fairer electoral system. Not, alas, for themselves in this most unrepresentative parliament in all history, where Labour commands almost two-thirds of the seats on just 34% of the vote. MPs tomorrow are voting on the more minor matter of restoring a fairer system for electing mayors in England, abolishing FPTP introduced in the Elections Act 2022 as a Tory gerrymander, returning instead to a supplementary vote system: a first and second choice. Expect sarcastic comments from the many electoral reformers in the house as the government solemnly explains why FPTP voting is unfair and leads to some grotesque results – but only when it’s a mayoral contest.
Voter support for electoral reform in all-important general elections now stands at 60% – its highest ever. People used to believe our system brought Britain strong and stable government, but the chaos of recent years has demonstrated that this isn’t the case. Since 2016, the UK has had six prime ministers, and among western democracies, UK cabinet ministers serve the shortest average terms. If once Britain once thought that its system kept the populist right out of parliament, it does no longer. Instead of being a barrier to dangerous outsiders it has become a springboard, catapulting Reform UK closer to power.
Every Labour MP should study the new report from Compass, which analyses how a system designed to keep the lid on the pressure cooker of populism has become its dangerous enabler. With the old duopoly supplanted by five – soon to be six – UK-wide parties, having one winner take all and seizing the elective dictatorship of a Commons majority only increases voters’ political disengagement. Compass’s report, the Temper Trap, looks at the rise of populist-nationalist parties across the Netherlands, Sweden, Finland, Italy and Austria, and shows how their inclusion in coalitions under proportional representation (PR) forced them to moderate their extreme demands. Even in Italy, where populist-right voices are in the majority in cabinet, PR has softened their agenda.
If the UK thinks itself a moderate country, analysis of its policies of the last 16 years shows how much more extreme it has been even than neighbours with coalitions that include the populist right. It has delivered some of the most immoderate policies in Europe: Brexit is wildly beyond anything done there. British policies on immigration, prison sentencing, deportations, austerity, deregulation, inequality and social justice were all delivered by radicalising a nominally “centre-right” Conservative party from the outside. With virtually no parliamentary presence, Reform UK and its spiritual predecessor Ukip transformed the political landscape.
By way of contrast, look at Geert Wilders’ Freedom party (PVV) in the Netherlands. Despite winning the most votes its leader was denied power and the party had to compromise in coalition negotiations, putting to one side its positions on leaving the EU, banning Muslim schools and effecting mass deportations. It’s the same story with Finnish and Austrian populist parties, which negotiated their place in government by compromising on EU withdrawal, mass deportations and bans on foreign students. But, without PR as safety valve, Farage could take absolute power without moderating anything.
Here’s the paradox: proportional representation allows populist-right parties into parliament but can stop them governing unchecked. FPTP keeps them out of parliament, but forces mainstream parties to co-opt their policies: see how the idea of withdrawing from the European convention on human rights is no longer a fringe issue. Labour, too, has undoubtedly been pushed further right by populist outsiders.
No crystal ball can predict an election still nearly four years ahead. But Labour has the power and the duty to protect the country from the worst possible result, a hard-right populist government elected by a thin minority. The risk is substantial. It’s no longer in Labour’s self-interest to refuse a reform backed by nearly two-thirds of voters. The parliamentary group on fair elections, by far the largest all-party group in parliament, on Monday published its report calling for a national commission on electoral reform. “The government needs to get to grips with this,” says the group’s chair, Labour MP Alex Sobel. Keir Starmer could set up a commission right away and implement change before the next election. He’s been accused of lacking purpose, but here is a strong (cost-free) cause that would protect democracy.
Labour voted for electoral reform at its 2022 conference: its national policy forum says FPTP is driving “the distrust and alienation we see in politics”. While over half the all-party group are Labour MPs, the cabinet has a few adamant tribalists who resist PR as it would force coalition compromises: that old argument for not watering down socialism looks pretty weak now that Liberal Democrats and Greens in a coalition would push Labour leftwards. I’m told Starmer and Angela Rayner are said to be flexible pragmatists, along with Morgan McSweeney, who would back it if it helped Labour. Rumours suggest Reform UK, pushed hard by Richard Tice, might start dropping support for PR at its party conference this week. That should alert any Labour reluctants to the peril of staying with FPTP.
An election bill is due shortly, having been delayed by the departure of Rushanara Ali, the homelessness minister who had the odd add-on of democracy minister. Who gets the latter job, and whether it’s taken more seriously, may indicate Starmer’s intentions. If the bill lands with no promise of a commission on electoral reform, a great many Labour MPs will sign an amendment to include it – that would be a serious rebellion on a fundamental principle. Better by far for Starmer to seize the initiative and make this his political challenge to the right and his lasting legacy.
Polly Toynbee is a Guardian columnist
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